Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 2. september 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Så er det endnu en gang blevet tid til den måske vigtigste omgang makroøkonomiske nøgletal af dem alle, nemlig den amerikanske arbejdsmarkedsrapport. De seneste to rapporter har vist sig overraskende robuste med en gennemsnitlig beskæftigelsesfremgang på personer. Der ventes en vis moderation i august til omkring personer, men konsensusestimatet er indsamlet før beskæftigelsesunderindekset i fremstillings-ism i går faldt noget. Derfor er risikoen på nedsiden vil ellers være ganske pænt. Antallet af nye ledige er således steget en smule, men ikke meget, og er faktisk faldet de seneste to seneste uger. Derudover har NFIB s indeks for ansættelsesplanerne blandt mindre virksomheder vist en stabil udvikling de seneste par måneder. Ydermere ventes et lille fald i arbejdsløshedsraten til 4,8%, hvormed den overordnet har kørt nogenlunde sidelæns de sidste fire måneder. Endelig vil der igen være fokus på lønvæksten, idet denne har en vigtig rolle i Fed s vurdering af inflationsudviklingen og i den sammenhæng behovet for opstramning af pengepolitikken. Den ventes dog flad til let faldende i august fra niveauet på 2,6% y/y i juli, som ikke er set højere i syv år. Det er blevet indikeret af vigende indkomstforventninger blandt husholdningerne samt af et fald i job-omsætningen (medarbejdere der opsiger sit job), samt NFIB s (mindre virksomheders) ventede lønvækst, og endelig beskæftigelsesomkostningsindekset, ECI. Disse indikatorer peger derudover på en fortsat flad udvikling i de efterfølgende par måneder, så spørgsmålet er, om lønvæksten har toppet i denne omgang (se figur)? Det vigtigste danske nøgletal for de finansielle markeder kommer også i dag, i form af Nationalbankens valutareservetal. Efter at Nationalbanken i juni måtte købe valuta i markedet for at begrænse et styrkelsespres mod kronen, var der allerede i juli tegn på at dette pres var aftaget. Der var således ingen interventionsaktivitet for første gang i tre måneder, og DKK nåede i sidste uge det laveste niveau over for EUR siden maj. Der er således udsigt til, at valutareserven er blevet reduceret i august, hvor vi venter et fald fra 449,9 mia. kr. til i omegnen af 443 mia. kr. Søndag og mandag mødes G20-landenes ledere i Hangzhou i Kina. Finansmarkederne vil nok holde øje med eventuelle udtalelser om koordinering af valutakurspolitikken og herunder eventuel enighed om at undgå konkurrerende devalueringer. Særligt Kinas og Japans valutakurspolitik vil nok være i fokus. Ellers vil mødet nok mere blive husket for, at Kina i værts- og lederrollen i højere grad end tidligere forsøger at tage ansvar for og også præge den globale økonomiske udvikling. USA: Har lønvæksten toppet? Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: De europæiske aktiemarkeder havde medvind i går ovenpå relativt pæne kinesiske PMI-tal og et yderst stærkt britisk PMI-tal. Men medvinden sluttede sidst på eftermiddagen efter et styrtdyk i den amerikanske industriaktivitetsindikator ISM. De amerikanske aktier faldt også, men rettede sig efter europæisk markedsluk. Asien ligger nogenlunde fladt her til morgen. Obligationsrenterne steg over dagen men faldt tilbage igen efter ISM-skuffelsen. EUR styrkedes over for USD: USA: ISM for fremstillingssektoren tog sig noget af en maveplasker i august, idet indekset faldt til kun 49,4 i august fra 52,6 i juli. Der var kun ventet et lille fald til 52,0. Dermed røg indekset under 50 til det laveste niveau siden januar. Der var især store fald i underindeksene for produktionen og for nye ordrer. Sidstnævnte er et mere fremadskuende indeks, og det faldt med hele 7,8 indekspoint til 49,1, hvilket absolut er bekymrende. Underindekset for beskæftigelsen faldt mindre dramatisk fra 49,4 til 48,3, men det giver alligevel risiko på nedsiden for beskæftigelsesfremgangen i dagens arbejdsmarkedsrapport. Storbritannien: Fremstillings-PMI sprang markant i vejret i august til 53,3 fra 48,2 i juli. Hermed steg den mere end den faldt i juni, et fald som især blev tilskrevet brexit. Gårsdagens stigning var overraskende stor, idet konsensus kun havde ventet en stigning til 49,0. Med stigningen ser britisk industri ud til allerede at have rystet brexit-støvet af sig, godt hjulpet på vej af det svækkede GBP, som hjælper eksportvirksomhederne. Industrien er dog mindre i Storbritannien end i mange andre økonomier, så det vil først for alvor være opløftende, hvis også service-pmi retter sig efter brexit-styrtdykket i juli (offentliggøres på mandag). Euroområdet: Det sammensatte PMI-indeks (composite) blev nedrevideret til 51,7 i august i den endelige opgørelse fra 51,8 i den foreløbige opgørelse. PMI: UK rebound og US styrtdyk Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 2. september 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier Det ledende danske indeks OMXC20 CAP (- 0,18% / indeks 1.035,30) endte gårsdagens handel i negativt terræn. Udviklingen på de europæiske børser var ligeledes negativ. Det startede ellers positivt, men sidst på dagen vendte stemningen, eftersom der blev offentliggjort skuffende ISM tal fra den amerikanske fremstillingssektor. I toppen af indekset endte A.P. Møller-Mærsk (+1,45% / kurs ,00). Mærsk Lines konkurrent Hanjin har søgt om betalingsstandsning, hvilket betyder, at kunderne er begyndt, at annullere ordrer og i stedet placere disse hos andre containerrederier. Hanjin er det syvende største containerrederi i verden og derfor vil rederiets betalingsstandsning, alt andet lige, betyde højere fragtrater og volumener til de øvrige containerrederier. GN Store Nord (+1,40% / kurs 145,30) havde også en god dag. Den schweiziske storbank UBS hævede sin anbefaling på aktien til Hold fra tidligere Sælg. Kursmålet blev i samme anledning hævet til 140 kr. fra tidligere 110 kr. Novo Nordisk (-1,66% / kurs 307,50) var i fokus, da Lars Fruergaard kommer til at erstatte den nuværende direktør Lars Rebien Sørensen fra 1. januar Vi ser Lars Fruergaard som det rigtige valg og der kommer næppe til at ske de helt store ændringer i relation til Novo Nordisks overordnede strategi. Renter Statsrenterne både i USA og i Tyskland og Danmark steg fra morgenstunden i går i takt med aktiekursstigninger som følge af relativt pæne kinesiske PMI-tal og et yderst stærkt britisk PMI-tal. Men det vendte kort før lukketid efter offentliggørelsen af et særdeles svagt ISM-tal for den amerikanske industritillid. Det svage tal mindskede markedets implicitte sandsynlighed for, at Fed hæver renten på september-mødet, og sendte også de lange renter nedad. ISM faldt til kun 49,4 i august fra 52,6 i juli. Dermed røg indekset under 50 til det laveste niveau siden januar. Der var især store fald i underindeksene for produktionen og for nye ordrer. Sidstnævnte er et mere fremadskuende indeks, og det faldt med hele 7,8 indekspoint til 49,1, hvilket absolut er bekymrende. Hvis dagens vigtige amerikanske arbejdsmarkedsrapport også skuffer, vil der nok ikke være nogen markedsdeltagere tilbage, som stadig tror på en renteforhøjelse fra Fed i denne måned, og en december-forhøjelse vil også blive mindre sandsynlig. Valuta USD blev svækket over for de fleste valutaer, herunder over for EUR, i går eftermiddags efter USA offentliggjorde ISM-indekset for fremstillingssektoren. Det faldt langt mere end ventet til kun 49,4 i august fra 52,6 i juli. Dermed røg indekset under 50 til det laveste niveau siden januar. GBP styrkedes temmelig markant i går over for både EUR og USD efter offentliggørelsen af britisk fremstillings-pmi. Den sprang markant i vejret i august til 53,3 fra 48,2 i juli, og steg dermed mere end den faldt i juni, et fald som især blev tilskrevet brexit. Med stigningen ser britisk industri ud til allerede at have rystet brexit-støvet af sig, godt hjulpet på vej af det svækkede GBP, som hjælper eksportvirksomhederne. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 2. september 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 29/08/16 Per Aarsleff Holding A/S 3. kvartal 29/08/16 Parken Sport & Entertainment A/S 2. kvartal 31/08/16 Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S 2. kvartal 01/09/16 IC Group A/S 4. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 29/08/16 14:30 USA Personal Spending (MoM) Jul 0.3% % (r) 0.3% 29/08/16 14:30 USA PCE Core (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.1%/1.5% %/1.6% 0.1%/1.6% 29/08/16 16:30 USA Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Aug /08/16 01:30 Japan Jobless Rate Jul 3.1% % 3.0% 30/08/16 01:30 Japan Overall Household Spending YoY Jul -1.5% %(r) -0.5% 30/08/16 01:50 Japan Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.8%/-0.9% %/-1.3% 1.4%/-0.2% 30/08/16 08:00 Tyskland Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) Jul -0.1%/-4.0% %/-4.6% 0.1%/-3.8% 30/08/16 09:00 Schweiz KOF Leading Indicator Aug /08/16 09:00 Spanien CPI (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.1%/-0.3% -0.7%/-0.6% 0.1%/-0.1% 30/08/16 11:00 EMU Economic Confidence Aug /08/16 14:00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Aug P 0.1%/0.5% %/0.4% 0.0%/0.4% 30/08/16 15:00 USA S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (MoM/YoY) Jun -0.1%/5.1% %/5.25% -0.07%/5.13% 30/08/16 16:00 USA Consumer Confidence Index Aug /08/16 01:05 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Aug /08/16 01:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jul P 0.8%/-3.0% %/-1.5% 0.0%/-3.8% 31/08/16 07:00 Japan Small Business Confidence Aug /08/16 08:00 Tyskland Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.5%/0.3% %/2.7% 1.7%/-1.5% 31/08/16 08:00 UK Nationwide House PX (MoM/YoY) Aug -0.1%/4.9% %/5.2% 0.6%/5.5% 31/08/16 08:45 Frankrig CPI (MoM/YoY) Aug P 0.4%/0.3% %/0.2% 0.3%/0.2% 31/08/16 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Spending (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.3%/1.1% %/0.6% -0.2%/0.5% 31/08/16 09:00 Danmark Unemployment Rate, LFS Jul % 6.0% 6.2% 31/08/16 09:00 Danmark Unemployment Rate Gross Rate Jul 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 31/08/16 09:00 Danmark GDP (QoQ/YoY) 2Q P 0.5%/0.3% 0.0%/-0.1% 0.7%/0.3% 0.5%/0.4% 31/08/16 09:15 USA Fed's Rosengren speaks 31/08/16 09:55 Tyskland Unemployment Change (000's) Aug -4k -- -7k -7k 31/08/16 10:00 Norge GDP Mainland QoQ 2Q 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 31/08/16 11:00 EMU Unemployment Rate Jul 10.0% 10.0% 10.1% 10.1% 31/08/16 11:00 EMU CPI Estimate YoY Aug 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 31/08/16 11:00 EMU CPI Core YoY Aug A 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 31/08/16 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 26. Aug % 2.8% 31/08/16 14:15 USA ADP Employment Change Aug 175k k 177k 31/08/16 15:45 USA Chicago Purchasing Manager Aug /08/16 16:00 USA Pending Home Sales (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.7%/2.2% %/0.3% 1.3%/-2.2% 01/09/16 03:00 Kina Manufacturing PMI Aug /09/16 03:00 Kina Non-manufacturing PMI Aug /09/16 03:45 Kina Caixin China PMI Mfg Aug /09/16 08:30 Sverige Swedbank/Silf PMI Manufacturing Aug /09/16 09:00 Norge Manufacturing PMI Aug /09/16 09:30 Schweiz PMI Manufacturing Aug /09/16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Aug F /09/16 10:30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Aug /09/16 13:30 USA Challenger Job Cuts YoY Aug % -21.8% 01/09/16 14:30 USA Nonfarm Productivity 2Q F -0.6% % -0.6% 01/09/16 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 27. Aug 265k k 263k 01/09/16 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 28. Aug /09/16 15:45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Aug F /09/16 16:00 USA Construction Spending MoM Jul 0.5% %(r) 0.0% 01/09/16 16:00 USA ISM Manufacturing Aug /09/16 USA Wards Total Vehicle Sales Aug 17.20m m 16.91m 02/09/16 07:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index Aug /09/16 09:30 Sverige Current Account Balance 2Q b 02/09/16 10:00 Norge Unemployment Rate Aug 3.1% 3.1% 3.2% 02/09/16 10:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Aug /09/16 11:00 EMU PPI (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.1%/-2.9% %/-3.1% 02/09/16 14:30 USA Trade Balance Jul -$41.7b -- -$44.5b 02/09/16 14:30 USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Aug 180k 190k 255k 02/09/16 14:30 USA Unemployment Rate Aug 4.8% 4.8% 4.9% 02/09/16 14:30 USA Average Hourly Earnings (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.2%/2.5% %/2.6% 02/09/16 16:00 Danmark Foreign Reserves Aug /09/16 16:00 USA Factory Orders Jul 2.0% % 02/09/16 19:00 USA Fed's Lacker Speaks on Interest Rate Benchmarks in Richmond Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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6 Contact information Capital Markets Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Per Eldestrand Head of Debt Capital Markets Sweden Måns Niklasson Head of Corporate Loans and Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head, Chief Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Andreas Skogelid Senior Strategist FI Pierre Carlsson Strategist FX Lars Henriksson Foreign Exchange Strategist Macro Research Ann Öberg Chief Economist Jimmy Boumediene Head of Forecasting Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman E. Europe, Emerging Markets, Japan Anders Brunstedt Sweden Eva Dorenius Web Editor Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Macro Research Janne Ronkanen Senior Analyst Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Macro Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Denmark Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen China and Latin America Norway Kari Due-Andresen Head, Macro Research, Norway; UK Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Marius Gonsholt Hov Senior Economist, Norway Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Jaan Kivilo Gävle Petter Holm Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Ray Spiers Luleå/Umeå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Snorre Tysland Malmö Ulf Larsson Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen allé 11 Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC