Nærskibsfart med bundlinieeffekt: Klima og miljø. Hans Otto Kristensen. Tlf: alt

Transkript

1 Nærskibsfart med bundlinieeffekt: Klima og Hans Otto Kristensen Tlf: alt

2 Sidste nyt vedr. TEMA 21 ang. lastbiler Effekt og fartafhængighed for skibe Baggrund for DTU nye skibs beregningsmodel Eksterne omkostninger Kommende krav og udfordringer fra IMO Mindre lastskibe versus landtransport med lastbiler Ro-Ro lastskibe versus landtransport med lastbiler Konklusion og et kig ind i fremtiden 2 DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

3 Lastbildata beregnet med TEMA 21 modellen Energiforbrug per kørt km (1 kg olie ~ 43 MJ) 13 Energy demand [MJ/km] Solo trucks According to TEMA Cargo on truck [t] 14-2 t (EURO 5) 2-26 t (EURO 5) t (EURO 5) t (EURO 4) EURO 4 EURO 4 EURO 3 EURO 3 EURO 3 DTU model 3 DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

4 18 Lastbildata beregnet med TEMA 21 modellen Energiforbrug per kørt km (1 kg olie ~ 43 MJ) 16 Trucks with trailer According to TEMA 21 Energy demand [MJ/km] t (EURO 3) 34-4 t (EURO 3) 4-48 t (EURO 3) 5-6 t (EURO 3) EURO 4 EURO 5 EURO 4 EURO 5 EURO 4 EURO 5 EURO 4 EURO 5 DTU model Cargo on truck [t] 4 DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

5 18 Lastbildata beregnet TEMA 21 modellen Energiforbrug per kørt km (1 kg olie ~ 43 MJ) 16 Old DTU model Trucks with trailer Single truck Energy demand [MJ/km] Truck energy demand According to TEMA 2 and Cargo on truck [t] 5 DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

6 Fremdrivningseffektens fartafhængighed: Effekt = konstant x fart N Fejlopfattelse: N = 3! Speed exponent N Power = constant x V N 1 TEU 15 TEU 2 TEU 3 TEU 4 TEU TEU Speed V [knots] 6 DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

7 On basis of statistical data calculate the ship's dimensions as functions of ship length, L Beam = B = f 1 (L) Draft = T = f 2 (L) Depth = D = f 3 (L) Light ship weight = M = f 4 (L) Service speed = V = f 5 (L) Auxiliary machinery power = Pa = f 6 (L) Propulsion power, Pf, is calculated on the basis of main dimensions, cargo capacity, C, and utilization fraction, U (actual cargo/maximum cargo capacity) Pf = f 7 (L, B, T, D, M, V, C, U) Energy consumption and emissions are calculated on the basis of the propulsion and auxiliary power Pf and Pa Finally, main dimensions can be modified and their influence on propulsion power and energy consumption can be determined 7 DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

8 14 12 Container ships (199-27) LR/Fairplay database 1 Capacity [TEU] 8 6 LR data Model values Length pp [m] 8 DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

9 6 5 Container ships (199-27) LR/Fairplay database Breadth [m] LR Fairplay database DTU model - Post Panamax DTU model - Panamax Length pp [m] 9 DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

10 Miljøfaktorer hvilke er vigtigst? Emissioner og energiforbrug: CO 2 NOx SOx Particulates Andre faktorer/negative konsekvenser af transport Støj Kødannelse Ulykker Udgifter til infrastruktur 1 DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

11 Miljøfaktorer hvilke er vigtigst? Hvorledes evalueres et transportmiddels miløpåvirkning? Emissioner Opvarmning af jordkloden Forsuring af naturen og ødelæggelse af bygninger Sygdom/dødsfald Andre faktorer/negative konsekvenser af transport Støj: Irritation Kødannelse: Tabt arbejdstid Ulykker: Tabt arbejdstid mistet forsøgelse Udgifter til infrastruktur: Højere skatter 11 DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

12 Eksterne omkostninger DTU Trafik data 29 CITY DKK/kg EURO/kg Low Mean High Low Mean High CO Particulates 567 1,827 9, NOx SOx CO HC NON CITY DKK/kg EURO/kg Low Mean High Low Mean High CO Particulates , NOx SOx CO HC t truck DKK/km EURO/km Low Mean High Low Mean High Noise Accidents Congestion Infrastructure DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

13 Beregnings scenarier Skib (1 6 dødvægt svarende til 9 54 t last) 3 % svovl indhold i brændolien, motorer opfylder IMO Tier I NOx krav og normal servicefart (baseret på statistiske oplysninger) 1 % svovl indhold i brændolien, motorer opfylder IMO Tier I NOx krav og normal servicefart (baseret på statistiske oplysninger),1 % svovl indhold i brændolien, motorer opfylder IMO Tier I NOx krav og normal servicefart (baseret på statistiske oplysninger),1 % svovl indhold i brændolien, motorer opfylder IMO Tier I NOx krav og 1 % fartreduktion i forhold til normal servicefart (baseret på statistiske oplysninger) Lastbil EURO norm 4 (26),1 % svovlindhold 25 t last 13 DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

14 Kommende IMO krav vedr. SOx og NOx emissioner 18 NOx limit (g/kwh) (ECA s only) NOx emission limit schedule according to IMO (Int. Maritime Organisation) 5 4 Global 2 Max. Sulphur percentage in oil for ship propulsion SOx emission limit schedule according to IMO (Int. Maritime Organisation) ECA (Emission Control Area) Engine RPM Year 14 DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

15 Service fart modellering 15 Data for mindre danske lastskibe DTU model 13 Servicefart [knob] Længe pp [m] 15 DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

16 CO 2 emissioner per transportenhed 5 CO2 emissions (g/t payload/km) General cargo ship at normal speed General cargo ship at 1 % speed reduction EURO Norm 4 truck with 25 t cargo - TEMA 2 EURO Norm 4 truck with 25 t cargo - TEMA Deadwight [t] 16 DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

17 Totale eksterne omkostninger per transportenhed External costs (EURO/t payload per 1 km) % S - IMO Tier I NOx - Normal speed 1 % S - IMO Tier I NOx - Normal speed.1 % S - IMO Tier I NOx - Normal speed 1.1 % S - IMO Tier I NOx - 1 % speed reduction EURO Norm 4 truck with 25 t cargo - TEMA 2 EURO Norm 4 truck with 25 t cargo - TEMA Deadweight [t] 17 DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

18 Totale eksterne omkostninger Skib i forhold til lastbil Total ext. cost ratio (truck/ship) Low cost level Mean cost level High cost level Ratio of total external costs for truck transport compared with ship transport 1 % S - Tier I NOX - normal speed Deadweight [t] 18 DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

19 48 Total CO 2 emissions and external costs to society for transport of 75 TEU from Gothenburg to Rotterdam T otal truck (16 m) on Ro-Ro ship TEMA 2 CO2 emissions [kg] and external costs [EURO] CO2 emissions Total external costs to society 75 TEU container feeder ship (16.4 knots) Two 3 lm Ro-Ro cargo ships (2.7 knots) 375 trucks (16 m long) 19 DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

20 3 25 Service speed [knots] Ro-Ro cargo Ro-Ro pass. Ro-Ro cargo ships and Ro-Ro pass. ships Length pp [m] 2 DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

21 Service fart for Ro-Ro skibe 3 25 Service speed [knots] Ro-Ro cargo Ro-Ro pass. Ro-Ro cargo ships and Ro-Ro pass. ships Length pp [m] 21 DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

22 48 Total CO 2 emissions and external costs to society for transport of 75 TEU from Gothenburg to Rotterdam Total truck (16 m) on Ro-Ro ship TEMA 21 CO2 emissions [kg] and external costs [EURO] CO2 emissions Total external costs to society 75 TEU container feeder ship (16.4 knots) Two 3 lm Ro-Ro cargo ships (2.7 knots) 375 trucks (16 m long) 22 DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

23 4 Total CO 2 emissions and external costs to society for transport of 75 TEU from Gothenburg to Rotterdam T otal truck (16 m) on Ro-Ro ship TEMA 21 CO2 emissions [kg] and external costs [EURO] CO2 emissions Total external costs to society 75 TEU container feeder ship (16.4 knots) Two 3 lm Ro-Ro cargo ships (19 knots) 375 trucks (16 m long) 23 DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

24 4 Total CO 2 emissions and external costs to society for transport of 75 TEU from Gothenburg to Rotterdam Containers on mafi trailers on the Ro-Ro ship TEMA 21 CO2 emissions [kg] and external costs [EURO] CO2 emissions Total external costs to society 75 TEU container feeder ship (16.4 knots) 1.6 x 3 lm Ro-Ro cargo ships (19 knots) 375 trucks (16 m long) 24 DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

25 4 Total CO 2 emissions and external costs to society for transport of 75 T EU from Gothenburg to Rotterdam Double stacking of containers on mafi trailers on the Ro-Ro ship CO2 emissions [kg] and external costs [EURO] CO2 emissions Total external costs to society 75 TEU container feeder ship (16.4 knots).8 x 3 lm Ro-Ro cargo ships (19 knots) 375 trucks (16 m long) 25 DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

26 4 Total CO 2 emissions and external costs to society for transport of 75 TEU from Gothenburg to Rotterdam Double stacking of containers on mafi trailers on the Ro-Ro ship CO2 emissions [kg] and external costs [EURO] CO2 emissions Total external costs to society 75 TEU container feeder ship (16.4 knots).8 x 3 lm Ro-Ro cargo ships (2.7 knots) 375 trucks (16 m long) 26 DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

27 4 Total CO 2 emissions and external costs to society for transport of 75 TEU from Gothenburg to Rotterdam Double stacking of containers on mafi trailers on the Ro-Ro ship CO2 emissions [kg] and external costs [EURO] CO2 emissions Total external costs to society 75 TEU container feeder ship (16.4 knots).5 x 45 lm Ro-Ro cargo ships (2.7 knots) 375 trucks (16 m long) 27 DTU Mekanik, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet