Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 16. juni 2014 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Ugen byder på rentemøder i Norge (torsdag), Schweiz (torsdag) og USA (onsdag), hvor sidstnævnte umiddelbart virker som det mest interessante. Vi venter dog ikke den helt store dramatik i den aktuelle pengepolitiske strategi, med en fortsat gradvis nedtrapning af bankens obligationsopkøb samt en fortsat vis optimisme med hensyn til de økonomiske udsigter som værende det mest sandsynlige udfald. Det bliver dog interessant at se bankens nye økonomiske prognose, ikke mindst for arbejdsløsheden, og høre om der er en stigende bekymring om muligheden for et tiltagende inflationært pres. Endvidere får vi også de ledende Fed-medlemmers opdaterede vurdering af den fremadrettede udvikling i styringsrenten, som sidste gang gav anledning til lidt turbulens. Endelig er det også muligt, at vi kan blive klogere på Fed s exit-strategi på pressemødet som Fed-chef Yellen afholder. Alt i alt er det vores forventning at mødet kan aflede en fremrykning af forventningerne til den første renteforhøjelse. Dagen i dag byder dog også på et par interessante nøgletal fra USA. Industriproduktionen skuffede i april, da den faldt uventet meget med 0,6% m/m. Faldet var dog især trukket af energiproduktionen, om end maskiner også trak pænt ned, og skal nok også ses i lyset af den vejrelaterede indhentningseffekt de forrige to måneder. Ifølge diverse industribarometre, samt ikke mindst antallet af arbejdede timer i industrien, er der dog udsigt til at produktionen næsten indhenter det tabte i maj, med en stigning på omkring 0,5% m/m. Med hensyn til industrien modtager vi desuden New York Feds regionale barometer Empire-indekset, som uventet steg til det højeste niveau siden 2010 i majopgørelsen. I juni ventes et lille tilbagefald, om end stadig på et pænt niveau. Vi får også tal for boligmarkedet i dag i form af aktivitetsindekset fra NAHB. Indekset har udviklet sig skuffende i år og har således indtil videre ikke rettet sig efter at de formodede effekter fra det kolde vejr i begyndelsen af året er ebbet ud. Tværtimod faldt indekset uventet i og indikerer, at aktivitetsopbremsningen skyldes mere end blot vejret. Således har rentestigningerne i løbet af 2. halvår 2013 nok en del af forklaringen, ligesom de højere boligpriser kombineret med faldende udbud af boliger har bremset omsætningen. Der har imidlertid været et fald i realkreditrenterne på det seneste, men dog kun nok til at berettige en langsom stigning i NAHB-indekset fra 45 til 47 i juni. US: Positive signaler for industriproduktionen Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkederne i Europa endte fredgane svagt i rødt, mens USA s markeder modsat steg en smule. I nat har de asiatiske markeder udviklet sig mere eller minde fladt om end med et større fald idet japanske Nikkeiindkes, hvor eskalerede uroligheder i Irak ser ud til at veje på risikovilligheden og trækker olieprisen op. Obligationsrenterne havde svært ved at finde retning men endte dagen en smule lavere. EUR er svækket lidt over for USD, mens JPY er blevet styrket. USA: Den foreløbige opgørelse af forbrugertilliden fra University of Michigan faldt lidt overraskende fra 81,9 til 81,2 i juni. Det understreger at der fortsat er vis forsigtighed i husholdningerne som muligvis er lidt svær at forstå givet de fortsatte stigninger på aktiemarkederne, bedringen på arbejdsmarkedet og de lavere finansieringsomkostninger. Forklaringen skal formentlig findes i de stigende benzinpriser vi har set gennem en periode. Faldet i indekset var da også trukket af et fald i forventningsindekset der normalt afspejler ændringer i aktiekurser og benzinpriser. Indekset for vurderingen af den aktuelle situation, der generelt reflekterer arbejdsmarkedets tilstand steg en smule. Uroen i Irak og de højere oliepriser har ikke nået at influere tallene, men kan give lidt risiko på nedsiden for den endelige opgørelse. Producentpriserne faldt lidt overraskende med 0,2% m/m i maj, og går dermed lidt imod forventningerne/frygten om et begyndende inflationært pres i økonomien. Renset for priserne på fødevarer og energi var der også tale om et fald. Faldet i producentpriserne kommer dog efter et par måneder med pæne stigninger. Tyskland: Den endelige opgørelse af forbrugerprisindekset viste ikke nogen ændringer i forhold til den først opgjorte afdæmpede inflation på 0,9% i maj. UK: Bank of England chef Carney udtrykte bekymring om den kraftige stigning i realkreditgælden og sagde at banken muligvis kan blive tvunget til at sætte renten op tidligere end hvad der pt. er forventningen i markedet Sverige: Arbejdsløsheden faldt fra 8,1% til 7,8% af arbejdsstyrken i maj, hvilket var langt lavere end ventet. Ledighedsfaldet var drevet af en overraskende stor stigning i beskæftigelsen på personer, mens arbejdsstyrken steg en smule. Man skal passe på med at læse for meget i en enkelt måneds udvikling, da især beskæftigelsestallene er relativt volatile. Det store fald i ledigheden giver dog en lille smule opside risiko for vores udsigter for arbejdsmarkedet, om end vi hele tiden har set muligheden for et tidligere opsving på arbejdsmarkedet i Det burde dog ikke på den korte bane ændre ved tankegangen i Riksbanken, der ser ud til at være styret af den aktuelle inflationsudvikling. For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 16. juni 2014 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-0,30% / indeks 813,85) sluttede ugens sidste handelsdag i negativt terræn. Den negative stemning kom blandt andet i kølvandet på en tiltagende frygt for stigende oliepriser i takt med at uroen i Irak tiltog efter der kom flere meldinger om at, at den islamistiske milits ISIL fortsatte sin fremfærd. I toppen af indekset endte FLSmidth (+1,32% / kurs 308,10) som var godt hjulpet af at den amerikanske investeringsbank Goldman Sachs hævede deres anbefaling på aktien fra Sælg til Neutral. Vestas (+1,09% / kurs 286,90) havde også en god dag efter et dansk finanshus hævede deres kursmål på aktien efter selskabets kapitalmarkedsdag i Århus. I bunden af indekset endte blandt andet Novo Nordisk (-1,36% / kurs 247,30) som blev ramt af gevinsthjemtagning efter aktien over den seneste uge er steget pænt, efter der i weekenden blev offentliggjort dele af resultatet fra et opløftende sammenligningsstudie mellem Novo Nordisks Victoza og det konkurrerende GLP-1 middel Dulaglutide fra Elly Lilly. Renter De eskalerende uroligheder i Irak påvirkede risikovilligheden blandt investorerne og medvirkede til at trække ned i obligationsrenterne. ECB s pengepolitiske indgreb i forrige uge ser også ud til at trække ned i de kortere renter og har dermed muligvis også en effekt længere ude på kurven. Der var ikke de store nøgletal ud af euroområdet, mens de amerikanske nøgletal var på den lidt svage side, med et fald i producentpriserne samt i forbrugertilliden fra University of Michigan. Blikket er nok også rettet mod FOMC-mødet på onsdag, hvor bl.a. nyheden fra Bank of England om at den muligvis kan blive tvunget til at hæve renten tidligere end hidtil antaget har øget fokus på meldingerne fra den amerikanske centralbank. ECB s Coeure udtalte, at der ikke var noget umiddelbart behov for QE i euroområdet, da euroområdet ikke er ramt af deflation. Med urolighederne i Irak og udsigten til rentemødet i Fed vil ugen formentlig begynde på den lidt forsigtige side med en vis afventende holdning blandt investorerne. Valuta Efter at være trukket lidt i vejret fra morgenstunden blev EUR efterfølgende svækket over for USD, men krydset ligger dog kun marginalt lavere her til morgen i forhold til fredag morgen. Der var ikke de store nøgletal ud af euroområdet mens de amerikanske generelt var en smule skuffende med et fald i producentpriserne samt i forbrugertilliden fra University of Michigan, uden at de dog havde den helt store effekt. Heller ikke den eskalerende uro i Irak så ud til at have den helt store indflydelse, selv om man traditionelt ville vente at det ville styrke USD, men det blev måske opvejet af at ECB s Coeure udtalte, at der ikke var noget umiddelbart behov for QE i euroområdet. DKK bevægede sig et stykke længere ned på den stærke side af centralpariteten over for EUR. GBP blev styrket efter Bank of England chef Carney udtrykte bekymring om den kraftige stigning i realkreditgælden og sagde at banken muligvis kan blive tvunget til at sætte renten op tidligere end hvad der pt. er forventningen i markedet Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 16. juni 2014 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 18/06/14 SAS AB 2. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk Kina Foreign Direct Investment YoY May 3.2% % 16/06/14 01:01 UK Rightmove House Prices (MoM/YoY) Jun %/8.9% 0.1%/7.7% 16/06/14 11:00 EMU CPI (MoM/YoY) May -0.1%/0.5% -0.1%/0.5% --/0.5% 16/06/14 11:00 EMU CPI Core YoY May F 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16/06/14 14:30 USA Empire Manufacturing Jun /06/14 15:15 USA Industrial Production MoM May 0.5% % 16/06/14 16:00 USA NAHB Housing Market Index Jun /06/14 10:30 UK CPI (MoM/YoY) May 0.2%/1.7% %/1.8% 17/06/14 10:30 UK CPI Core YoY May 1.7% % 17/06/14 11:00 Tyskland ZEW Survey Current Situation Jun /06/14 11:00 Tyskland ZEW Survey Expectations Jun /06/14 14:30 USA CPI (MoM/YoY) May 0.2%/2.0% %/2.0% 17/06/14 14:30 USA CPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM/YoY) May 0.2%/1.9% %/1.8% 17/06/14 14:30 USA Housing Starts May 1040K K 17/06/14 14:30 USA Building Permits May 1060K K 18/06/14 01:50 Japan Trade Balance Adjusted May B B 18/06/14 03:30 Kina China May Property Prices 18/06/14 09:00 Sverige Economic Tendency Survey Jun /06/14 10:30 UK Bank of England Minutes -- 18/06/14 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 13. Jun % 18/06/14 20:00 USA Fed QE3 Pace Jun $35B $35B $45B 18/06/14 20:00 USA FOMC Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 19/06/14 09:30 Schweiz SNB 3-Month Libor Target Rate 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 19/06/14 10:00 Norge Deposit Rates 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 19/06/14 10:30 UK Retail Sales Incl. Auto (MoM/YoY) May -0.5%/4.3% %/6.9% 19/06/14 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 14. Jun 315K K 19/06/14 15:00 EMU Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Luxembourg -- 19/06/14 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 15. Jun /06/14 16:00 USA Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Jun /06/14 16:00 USA Leading Index May 0.6% % 20/06/14 08:00 Tyskland PPI (MoM/YoY) May 0.0%/-0.7% %/-0.9% 20/06/14 08:36 Japan BOJ Governor Kuroda Speaks 20/06/14 09:00 Danmark Consumer Confidence Indicator Jun /06/14 09:00 Danmark Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) May %/-- 0.1%/2.6% 20/06/14 09:00 EMU EU Finance Ministers Meet in Luxembourg 20/06/14 10:30 UK PSNB ex Interventions May 8.7B B 20/06/14 16:00 EMU Consumer Confidence Jun A Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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