Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 9. september 2014 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Det er en dag uden de helt store nøgletal på programmet, hvor USA dog byder ind med erhvervstilliden for de mindre virksomheder (NFIB) samt JOLTS opgørelse over antallet af jobåbninger. Der ventes en ny lille stigning i NFIBindekset fra 95,7 til 96,0 i august. Givet den seneste fremgang i servicesektoren er der dog en vis sandsynlighed for en positiv overraskelse. Vanen tro vil vi især holde øje med NFIB s beskæftigelsesindeks, som senest har flaget yderligere acceleration i beskæftigelsen. I den sammenhæng bør man også holde øje med JOLT-opgørelsen over nye ledige stillinger, som også har genfundet de gode takter fra årene lige inden finanskrisen ramte i JOLTSrapporten er interessant, idet den også indeholder en stribe af de indikatorer som Fed-chef Yellen fokuserer på i vurderingen af tilstanden på arbejdsmarkedet. Mens både antallet af joåbninger og fyringer har nået før-krise niveauer, så er ansættelses-, seperations- og quit -raten fortsat på den svage side. Disse serier skal vise yderligere forbedring, før Fed beslutter sig for at arbejdsmarkedet er sundt nok til at retfærdiggøre en stramning af pengepolitikken. Fra UK får vi tal for industriproduktionen, der trods lidt svagheder i de ledende indikatorer ventes at have udviklet sig nogenlunde fornuftigt i juli. Der ventes således en stigning i omegnen af 0,2% m/m, men der er dog tegn på, at svaghederne i euroområdet samt den styrkelse af GBP vi har set over det seneste kan medføre en mere negativ udvikling i den kommende tid. Fokus i UK vil dog nok i højere grad være på uafhængigheds-afstemningen i Skotland. US: Arbejdsmarkedet burde være i fin form Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: De europæiske aktiemarkeder havde generelt pilen en smule nedad en stemning der blev fulgt op både i USA og på de asiatiske markeder i nat. Obligationsrenterne i Danmark og Tyskland endte dagen en smule højere. Både EUR, JPY og GBP blev svækket over for USD. Rusland/Ukraine: Trods meldinger om kampe visse steder er der en spinkel optimisme om at våbenhvilen holder, om end den ser skrøbelig ud. Det har fået EU til at udskyde implementeringen af de nye sanktioner mod Rusland, der ellers principielt blev vedtaget af regeringscheferne i går. Japan: Forbrugertilliden faldt fra 41,5 til 41,2 i august i endnu et signal om at økonomien har mistet momentum og at genopretningen efter momsforhøjelsen tidligere på året udebliver. USA: Forbrugerkreditterne steg med USD 26 mia. i august hvilket var det stærkeste siden juli 2001, men primært trukket af bil- og studielån. EMU: De tyske investorer ser markant mere negativt på euroområdets økonomi, afspejlet i et fald i Sentix investortilliden fra 2,7 til -9,8 i september. Det var især vurderingen af den aktuelle økonomiske situation der trak ned, hvor det månedlige fald var det største siden indekset blev introduceret i sommeren Forventningerne til den økonomiske situation om 6 måneder faldt dog også tilbage. Dette er det første konjunkturbarometer for september, og det lover ikke positivt for udviklingen i de andre ledende indikatorer. Overordnet set er Sentix-indekset dog ikke det bedste til at sige noget om niveauet for den økonomiske aktivitet, men er god til tidligt at fange vendinger i konjunkturerne, og indikerer altså, at der ikke er udsigt til, at vi står over for et snarligt opsving i euroområdet. ECB s Nowotny udtalte at banken bør fokusere på allerede annoncerede tiltag på spørgsmål om han mente at ECB burde gøre mere for at stimulere økonomien, i et tegn på at statsobligations-qe ikke står lige for døren Tyskland: Eksporten overraskede positivt med en stigning på 4,7% m/m i juli, hvilket var den største stigning i mere end to år. Dermed har eksporten fået en fornuftig start på 3. kvartal, men spørgsmålet er om det kan fortsætte givet at sanktionerne mod Rusland formentlig begynder at bide. Importen faldt med 1,8% m/m, hvilket ikke er det bedste signal for at den indenlandske efterspørgsel er stærk nok til at modveje eventuelle modvinde på eksportsiden. UK: En meningsmåling fra Yougov viste for første gang i år et flertal for skotsk uafhængighed fra England forud for folkeafstemningen d. 18/9. Danmark: Eksporten viste en pæn fremgang på 2,7% m/m i juli. Det var dog primært energieksporten der steg, mens der renset for eksporten af brændselsog smørestoffer var tale om et fald i eksporten på 0,2% m/m. Dermed er der fortsat tegn på, at den afmatning vi har oplevet blandt nogle af vores større samhandelspartnere fungerer som en bremseklods for eksportsektoren. Importen steg med 3,4% m/m i juli, men også her spillede energi en vigtig rolle. Renset for brændsels- og smørestoffer steg importen dog alligevel med 2,0% m/m. Det betød, at overskuddet på handelsbalancen faldt marginalt fra 6,1 mia. kr. til 6,0 mia. kr. Konklusionen for indeværende er, at der fortsat ikke er tegn på, at samhandlen med udlandet er i gang med at trække væksten op i dansk økonomi. Til gengæld er der fortsat ikke nogen balanceproblemer herhjemme, hvor overskuddet på betalingsbalancen steg fra 10,4 mia. kr. til 11,0 mia. kr. i juli. Schweiz: Forbrugerprisinflationen steg uventet fra 0% til 0,1% i august. Vi havde set en risiko for at inflationen igen blev negativ, men stigende indenlandsk inflation trak op primært via stigende priser på fødevarer og beklædning. EMU: Ildevarslende signal fra investorerne For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 9. september 2014 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMX C20 CAP (+0,50% / indeks 807,67) endte i positivt territorium på en ellers relativt stille første handelsdag. I toppen af indekset endte Coloplast (+1,60% / kurs 483,90) efter et nordisk finanshus var ude og hæve kursmålet på aktien. Novo Nordisk (+1,26% / kurs 258,10) fulgte godt med efter interessen for aktien er steget forud for et ekspertpanel under de amerikanske sundhedsmyndigheder (FDA) skal tage stilling til om selskabets potientielle fedmemiddel Liraglutid skal anbefales til handel på det amerikanske marked. Dokumenterne til mødet vil blive offentliggjort i morgen. A.P. Møller-Mærsk (+0,75% / kurs ,00) endte også højere efter et internationalt finanshus var ude og hæve kursmålet på aktien. I den anden ende af indekset endte FLSmidth (-1,02% / kurs 312,00) dog uden selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Renter Obligationsrenterne i Danmark og Tyskland havde en svag pil nedad fra morgenstunden, trods ellers positive tal for den tyske eksport. Det blev dog overskygget af et markant fald i de tyske investorers syn på euroområdets økonomi, som ikke peger på et snarligt opsving i økonomien, samt af bekymringer over holdbarheden af den skrøbelige våbenhvile i Ukraine. Sent på eftermiddagen vendte udviklingen imidlertid, hvor en meningsmåling, der viste et flertal for uafhængighedskampagnen i Skotland, kan være en årsag, idet det giver bekymring, at en eventuel Ja-stemme i Skotland kan give luft til frigørelses planer andre steder i Europa som for eksempel Catalonien i Spanien. Stigende optimisme med hensyn til den amerikanske økonomi, og dermed også stigende forventninger til, at renteforhøjelserne fra Fed rykker nærmere, kan også have trukket op i de lange renter i Europa, hvor meldinger fra ECB s Nowotny der ikke pegede på, at ECB er parat til at implementere statsobligations-qe, formentlig også kan have hjulpet til. Obligationsrenterne i både Danmark og Tyskland endte således dagen med stigninger. Valuta En skrøbelig våbenhvile i Ukraine samt et stort fald i de tyske investorers syn på euroområdets økonomi i kombination med stigende optimisme med hensyn til styrken af den amerikanske økonomi medvirkede til at trække ned i EUR over for USD. ECB s Nowotnys meldinger om at en statsobligations-qe ikke ser ud til at være på trapperne samt pæne tal for den tyske eksportudvikling havde således ikke den store effekt. I det hele taget blev USD grundliggende styrket i går, hvor også JPY var under negativt pres, hjulpet af den fortsatte strøm af skuffende nøgletal her til morgen i form af et fald i forbrugertilliden. Modsat steg forbrugerkreditterne i USA langt mere end ventet. GBP blev svækket efter at en meningsmåling viste at Ja-siden for skotsk uafhængighed for første gang i år viste et flertal forud for afstemningen d. 18/9. Det medvirkede også til at reducere forventningerne til en renteforhøjelse fra Bank of England som lagde et yderligere nedadgående pres på GBP. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 9. september 2014 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab SAS 3. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 08/09/14 01:50 Japan GDP SA QoQ 2Q F -1.8% % -1.8% 08/09/14 04:00 Kina Trade Balance Aug $40.60B -- $47.30B $49.84B 08/09/14 04:00 Kina Exports/import (YoY) Aug 9.0%/3.0% %/-1.6% 9.4%/-2.4% 08/09/14 07:45 Schweiz Unemployment Rate SA Aug 3.2% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 08/09/14 08:00 Tyskland Exports SA MoM Jul 0.6% % 4.7% 08/09/14 09:00 Danmark Current Account Balance Jul 10.7B 10.5B 10.4B 11.0B 08/09/14 09:00 Danmark Trade Balance ex Ships Jul 6.1B 6.0B 6.1B 6.0B 08/09/14 09:15 Schweiz CPI (MoM/YoY) Aug -0.1%/0.0% -0.2%/-0.1% -0.4%/0.0% 0.0%/0.1% 08/09/14 10:30 EMU Sentix Investor Confidence Sep /09/14 21:00 USA Consumer Credit Jul $17.000B -- $18.806B $26.006B 09/09/14 07:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index Aug /09/14 10:30 UK Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.2%/1.3% %/1.2% 09/09/14 13:30 USA NFIB Small Business Optimism Aug /09/14 16:00 USA JOLTS Job Openings Jul /09/14 01:50 Japan Machine Orders (MoM/YoY) Jul 4.0%/0.5% %/-3.0% 10/09/14 08:45 Frankrig Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jul -0.5%/-0.3% %/-0.4% 10/09/14 09:00 Danmark CPI (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.1%/0.8% 0.0%/0.7% -0.1%/0.8% 10/09/14 09:00 Danmark CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.1%/0.5% 0.0%/0.4% -0.2%/0.5% 10/09/14 10:00 Norge CPI (MoM/YoY) Aug -0.3%/2.1% -0.5%/1.9% 0.7%/2.2% 10/09/14 10:00 Norge CPI Underlying (MoM/YoY) Aug -0.4%/2.3% -0.5%/2.2% 0.6%/2.6% 10/09/14 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 05. Sep % Kina New Yuan Loans Aug 700.0B B Kina Aggregate Financing RMB Aug B B 11/09/14 01:01 UK RICS House Price Balance Aug 47% -- 49% 11/09/14 03:30 Kina CPI YoY Aug 2.2% % 11/09/14 08:00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Aug F 0.0%/0.8% %/0.8% 11/09/14 08:45 Frankrig CPI (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.4%/0.4% %/0.5% 11/09/14 09:30 Sverige CPI (MoM/YoY) Aug -0.1%/-0.1% 0.0%/0.0% -0.3%/0.0% 11/09/14 09:30 Sverige CPI CPIF (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.0%/0.5% 0.0%/0.5% -0.2%/0.6% 11/09/14 09:30 Sverige Average House Prices Aug M 11/09/14 09:30 Sverige Unemployment Rate SA Aug 7.8% 7.8% 7.7% 11/09/14 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 06. Sep 300K K 11/09/14 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 07. Sep /09/14 20:00 USA Monthly Budget Statement Aug -$130.0B -- -$94.6B 12/09/14 08:05 Japan BOJ Governor Kuroda Speech 12/09/14 10:00 Norge Norges Bank Releases Regional Network Report 12/09/14 11:00 EMU Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.7%/1.4% 0.8%/ %/0.0% 12/09/14 14:30 USA Retail Sales Advance (MoM) Aug 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 12/09/14 14:30 USA Retail Sales Control Group (MoM) Aug 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 12/09/14 14:30 USA Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) Aug -1.0%/-0.2% %/0.8% 12/09/14 15:55 USA Univ. of Michigan Confidence Sep P /09/14 /2014 EMU EU, Ukraine, Russia Meet on EU-Ukraine Trade Deal in Brussels 12/09/14 09/13 EMU Euro-Area Finance Ministers, Central Bankers Meet in Milan Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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