DANMARK Endnu et tabt år

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1 DANMARK Endnu et tabt år Vores ellers pessimistiske forventninger på samme tid sidste år til udviklingen i dansk økonomi i 2012 var for optimistiske. BNP-væksten ser nu ud til at ende i negativt farvand for året som helhed, hvormed 2012 må betegnes som endnu et tabt år. Desværre er fremtidsudsigterne ikke alt for lyse, men vi kan forhåbentligt se en svag positiv vækst i 2013, hvis den globale økonomi holder skindet på næsen. I mellemtiden vil arbejdsløsheden dog stige som følge af de forudgående svagheder i dansk økonomi. Dansk økonomi skrumpede i 2012 for 3. gang på bare 5 år Danmark er det svage led i den nordiske region De seneste nationalregnskabstal for 3. kvartal bekræftede den meget svage udvikling i dansk økonomi igennem Trods en lille fremgang i BNP på 0,1% q/q, så medfører svaghederne gennem 1. halvdel af året, at der nu ikke hersker den store tvivl om, at den økonomiske aktivitet var i tilbagegang i 2012 sammenlignet med året før. Vi venter således en BNPvækst på -0,6% for året som helhed. Dermed må vi konstatere, at 2012 bliver endnu et tabt år i kampen for økonomisk genopretning i kølvandet på den bristede boligboble og den store globale recession i 2008/2009. Den negative økonomiske vækst i 2012 betyder, at dansk økonomi nu har været i tilbagegang i 3 ud af de seneste 5 år, hvilket i et historisk perspektiv ikke har været set på noget tidspunkt siden i hvert fald begyndelsen af 1960 erne. Den danske velstand opgjort ved BNP befinder sig da også fortsat mere end 5% under niveauet fra før krisen begyndte at accelerere i Den skuffende udvikling i væksten understreger Danmarks rolle som økonomisk hængeparti i den nordiske region, specielt i sammenligning med udviklingen i Norge og Sverige. Den økonomiske tilbagegang i 2012 har materialiseret sig til trods for flere tiltag for at stimulere den økonomiske aktivitet både via en lempelig finanspolitik, men også via udbetalingerne af de opsparede efterlønsmidler til husholdningerne. Kilde: Macrobond Svage vækstudsigter på den korte bane For indeværende peger de fleste økonomiske indikatorer på, at vi bevæger os ind i 2013 med et meget svagt afsæt. Udsigter er således ikke specielt opløftende på kort sigt, hvor tillidsindikatorerne fra både erhvervslivet og husholdningerne peger på fortsat økonomisk modvind. Med usikkerhed om udviklingen i den globale økonomi, et svagt arbejdsmarked samt i bedste fald stagnerende huspriser forventer vi ikke at se noget signifikant opsving materialisere sig i Endvidere er der udsigt til, at finanspolitikken vil virke dæmpende på den økonomiske aktivitet i 2013, om end der formentlig stadig vil være en vis forsinket stimulans fra de offentlige investeringer, hvor der ser ud til at have været visse implementeringsproblemer med den planlagte fremrykning af disse i Overordnet venter vi således en fortsat haltende og langsommelig bedring i den økonomiske aktivitet. Vi krydser dog fingre for, at vi vil se en tilbagevenden til en periode med lidt større øko- December

2 nomisk stabilitet, når vi når ind i 2. halvår 2013, men vores forventninger til den samlede økonomiske vækst i 2013 er ikke store. Udsigt til tæt ved nulvækst i 2013 med risici på nedsiden Eksporten er ikke længere en støtte til den økonomiske aktivitet Høj og vedvarende ledig kapacitet i økonomien dæmper udsigterne for de faste erhvervsinvesteringer Vores skøn for BNP-væksten i 2013 på 0,25% befinder sig således fortsat i den pessimistiske ende af konsensusforventningerne til dansk økonomi. Det ville naturligvis være rart hvis vi på samme tid næste år kunne konstatere, at vi denne gang havde været for pessimistiske med hensyn til styrken af dansk økonomi. En svagere udvikling i den globale økonomi end ventet ville imidlertid meget vel kunne medføre, at 2013 bliver endnu et tabt år. På opsiden er der dog også en mulighed for, at et hurtigere og mere signifikant løft til tilliden i erhvervslivet og blandt husholdningerne kunne igangsætte et opsparet forbrugs- og investeringsbehov, men for indeværende vurderer vi, at risiciene primært er på nedsiden. På den korte bane udspringer de aktuelle risici primært fra udviklingen i den eksterne efterspørgsel. En uhensigtsmæssig udvikling i gældskrisen i euroområdet og/eller en negativ påvirkning af den amerikanske økonomi fra manglende håndtering af den såkaldte finanspolitiske afgrund, kunne således have en markant dæmpende effekt på eksporten. Gennem en periode har netop eksportudviklingen ellers været et af de få lyspunkter for dansk økonomi. På det seneste er det imidlertid blevet mere og mere tydeligt, at den svagere økonomiske udvikling blandt flere af Danmarks største samhandelspartnere er begyndt at veje negativt på eksporten. Heldigvis er den danske udenrigshandels eksponering over for de svageste sydeuropæiske lande relativt lille, men de svage økonomiske signaler vi pt. får fra Tyskland, Sverige og UK lover ikke alt for godt for eksportudsigterne i I et lidt længere perspektiv vil en fortsat forbedring af den danske konkurrenceevne også være nødvendig, hvis eksporten skal nyde godt af en eventuel acceleration i den globale vækst. Udover de eksterne risici er der også flere indenlandske forhold, der kan skabe kortsigtede problemer for dansk økonomi. Disse inkluderer den fortsat svage tilstand på boligmarkedet, stigende arbejdsløshed samt manglende incitament for virksomhederne til at øge investeringsaktiviteten som følge af den fortsat meget store uudnyttede kapacitet i økonomien. Vores beregninger viser således at det såkaldte outputgab stadig er på hele -5% af potentiel BNP, hvor vi endda har tilladt for en reduktion i den potentielle vækstrate til bare 1,1%. Det vedvarende store kapacitetsgab medfører dog på den positive side, at det underliggende inflationære pres formentlig fortsat vil være afdæmpet. Udsigten til et svagt investeringsklima er endvidere understøttet af en udtalt mangel på tillid til den fremtidige økonomiske udvikling i dansk erhvervsliv. Det er synligt i den seneste opgørelse over industriens investeringsforventninger, der viser, at fremstillingsvirksomhederne venter, at investeringerne vil falde med 7% i Det er den første negative opgørelse over investeringsforventningerne siden 2009, og understreger vores antagelse om, at incitamentet til at øge investeringerne fra de aftalte mere generøse afskrivningsregler kun vil have en meget begrænset positiv effekt på de faste erhvervsinvesteringer i Kilde: Danmarks Statistik samt egne beregninger 2 December 2012

3 Stigende arbejdsløshed dæmper privatforbruget der også holdes nede af fortsat nødvendig gældsnedbringelse i husholdningerne Med hensyn til privatforbruget har vi også fortsat et relativt afdæmpet syn på den fremtidige udvikling. Hvis arbejdsløsheden, som vi venter det, stiger med op imod personer i 2013, vil den øgede jobusikkerhed fortsat påvirke forbrugstilbøjeligheden i negativ retning, og dermed holde et opsving i privatforbruget i skak. Den svage udvikling i privatforbruget ventes at materialisere sig trods det fortsatte potentiale fra udbetalingerne af efterlønspengene, idet fokus på gældsnedbringelse i husholdningerne ventes at være i højsædet. Selvom opsparingskvoten aktuelt ligger på et højt niveau, så har den såkaldte opsparingsbalance (det vil sige husholdningernes opsparing minus husholdningernes investeringer) kun lige akkurat bevæget sig op i positivt territorium i 1. halvår 2012, jf. graf forrige side. Husholdningerne er således ikke endnu for alvor begyndt at reducere deres rekordstore gæld målt i procent af de disponible indkomster. I et lidt længere perspektiv, er den høje gæld formentlig ikke det helt store problem, da husholdningernes solvens understøttes af tilsvarende store formuer, men det høje gældsniveau udgør en risiko for husholdningernes likviditetsposition på den kortere bane, og dermed også for stabiliteten i privatforbruget. Det skyldes, at den rekordstore gæld i dag i meget høj grad er finansieret med variabel rente. Risikoen er, at en eventuel stigning i renterne vil lægge en markant øget byrde på husholdningernes budgetter (selv om stigende renter ikke umiddelbart ligger i kortene inden for en overskuelig fremtid). Det ville derfor være positivt for stabiliteten af dansk økonomi, hvis husholdningerne fortsatte med at nedbringe gæld, selvom det betyder, at udsigterne til et opsving i privatforbruget vil være begrænset gennem en længere periode. Makroøkonomisk prognose (realvækst i % med mindre andet er angivet) F 2013F 2014F Privatforbrug Offentligt forbrug Faste bruttoinvesteringer offentlige investeringer boliginvesteringer faste erhvervsinvesteringer Lagerinvesteringer Ekspo rt Import BNP Arbejdsløshed, brutto, % Arbejdsløshed, brutto, 1000 pers Forbrugerpriser (CPI), % y/y Timelønninger (LO/DA), % y/y Huspriser, enfamilie, % y/y Betalingsbalance, mia. DKK % af BNP Offentlig budgetsaldo, mia. DKK % af BNP Offentlig ØMU-gæld, % af BNP Anm.: Prognosen er udarbejdet med deadline d. 5. december 2012 Kilde: Danmarks Statistik og Handelsbanken Capital Markets Jes Roerholt Asmussen, , jeas01@handelsbanken.dk December

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