Markedskommentarer. Dagens finansielle nøgletal. Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger. Aktier. Renter. Valuta

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1 29. oktober 2013 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus I USA fortsætter de forsinkede nøgletal med at rulle ind, og i dag er det så bl.a. detailsalgstallene for septembers tur. Her kan vi få et indblik i hvor villige forbrugerne var til at slippe pengene i butikkerne før budgetog gældslofturolighederne brød løs. Vi ved at bilsalget faldt kraftigt i september, men modsat har benzinsalget samt salget af byggematerialer formentlig haft den modsatte effekt, som medfører, at vi samlet set venter en flad udvikling i det overordnede detailsalg. Renset for især det skuffende bilsalg er der dog basis for at vi kan se en stigning i det underliggende kernesalg i omegnen af 0,4% m/m, med en lille up-side risiko fra frigivelsen af den seneste iphone. På den anden side har tidligere stigninger i kerneforbrugerpriserne antydet en bremse for stigningspotentialet via lavere købekraft, og alt i alt tror vi ikke at tallet vil indikere en voldsom acceleration i købelysten op til den delvise regeringsnedlukning fra d. 1. oktober og de efterfølgende politiske tovtrækkerier. Mere interessant bliver det imidlertid at få de nyeste tal for forbrugertilliden fra Conference Board (CB) for oktober, der vil give en retningspil om de fremadrettede tendenser for privatforbruget. Modsat andre forbrugertillidsindeks har CB s opgørelse ikke været synderligt påvirket af den politiske uro, og der er derfor en risiko for at vi kan se en vis negativ reaktion afspejlet i oktoberopgørelsen, hvor vi venter et fald fra 79,7 til i omegnen af 75, hvilket ville være det svageste niveau i tæt ved 5 måneder. Løsningen på budgetforhandlingerne er dog muligvis også afspejlet i målingen, som derfor samlet set måske kan være lidt svært at tolke på, hvor tallene for november nok bliver mere interessant i forhold til at aflæse den mere varige effekt på tilliden. Vanen tro vil underindekset for beskæftigelsesudviklingen blive fulgt med ekstra opmærksomhed, jf. figur. Vi får også tal for udviklingen i huspriserne i august, hvor vi også vil holde øje med evt. afmatningssignaler. Endelig offentliggøres også udviklingen i producentpriserne i september, som overordnet ventes løftet af højere energipriser, men grundlæggende ventes tallene ikke at pege på prispres i fremstillingssektoren. Fra euroområdet er der kun den franske forbrugertillid på programmet. Efter hen over foråret at være faldet til det svageste niveau siden finanskrisens højdepunkt i slutningen af 2008 har vi de seneste måneder set en vis bedring i forbrugertilliden, og det ventes da også at den tager et yderligere lille nøk opad i oktober. Vi er dog stadig langt fra niveauer der indikerer at vi skulle stå over for et mere mærkbart opsving i privatforbruget i euroområdets næststørste økonomi. US: Tror forbrugerne stadig på faldende ledighed? Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkederne i Europa havde en svag pil nedad, mens de i USA endte dagen stort set uændrede. Asiatiske børser har overvejende pilen nedad i nat. Obligationsmarkederne ender stort set uændrede mens EUR styrkes en smule over for USD Kina: Pengemarkedsrenterne stiger efter at centralbankens begrænsede likviditetsindsprøjtning i går ikke så ud til at kunne dæmpe kreditklemmen Japan: Arbejdsløsheden faldt som ventet til 4,0%, mens detailsalget overrasker positivt i september. USA: Industriproduktionen steg med 0,6% m/m i september, hvilket var mere end ventet. Det var dog forsyningsbranchen der trak, og ser man på den rene fremstillingssektor var der tale om en mere skuffende fremgang på bare 0,1% m/m. Antallet af verserende bolighandler styrtdykkede med - 5,6% m/m i september. Dallas Fed regionale aktivitetsindikator faldt mere end ventet, men dog med lidt mere opløftende underkomponenter. Euroområdet: Italiens økonomiske barometer faldt i oktober, trukket ned af service- og detailsektoren. UK: CBI reported sales falder fra 38% til 2% i oktober, indikerende en opbremsning i detailsalget Sverige: Detailsalget steg lidt skuffende kun med 0,2% m/m i september. US: Boligmarkedet bremser kraftigt op For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 29. oktober 2013 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-0,60% / indeks 649,95) sluttede dagen i moderat negativt terræn på en dag hvor der blev offentliggjort antal igangværende bolighandler fra USA som skuffede markedet. I toppen af indekset endte blandt andet Nordea (+0,85% / kurs 71,25) efter et større internationalt finanshus hævede deres kursmål på aktien. Novo Nordisk (+0,36% / kurs 984,00) havde ligeledes en god dag efter et nordisk finanshus hævede kursen på aktien. Carlsberg (+0,88% / kurs 571,00) kom i fokus efter det fremgik i Børsen at Carlsbergs bestyrelsesformand har luftet tankerne omkring 3-4 kapitaludvidelser i de kommende 2-3 år. Udtalelserne kom i forlængelse af fredagens nyhed om, at Carlsberg-fonden ikke længere behøver at eje mindst 25% af aktiekapitalen, hvilket har åbnet op for muligheden for at Carlsberg kan gennemføre kapitaludvidelser til at finansiere opkøb for over 100 mia. kr. I den modsatte ende af indekset endte blandt andet FLSmidth (-1,66% / kurs 278,90) fortsatte nedturen fra i fredags eftersom der stadig spekuleres i om markedet er for positive når det kommer til forventningerne for ordreindgangen i 3. kvartal i kølvandet på at en række konkurrenter har rapporteret skuffende regnskaber. Renter Uden de store retningspile fra hverken europæiske nøgletal eller aktiemarkeder havde obligationsrenterne i Danmark og Tyskland en svag pil nedad i går. Overvejende var der således tale om en svagt risikoavers session, om end der ser ud til at være en vis afventende stemning forud for morgendagens møde i den amerikanske centralbank der dog ventes at blive lidt af en non-event. Eneste europæiske nøgletal af interesse var et fald i den overordnede økonomiske tillid i Italien, trukket af service- og detailsektoren, mens fremstillings- og byggesektoren dog udviklede sig mere positivt. I UK faldt andelen af butikker der rapporterede om positiv vækst fra 38% til 2% i oktober og heller ikke USA havde positive økonomiske nyheder. Produktionen i fremstillingssektoren skuffede således med en stigning på bare 0,1% m/m i september, antallet af verserende bolighandler styrtdykkede og den regionale aktivitetsindikator fra Dallas Fed faldt mere end ventet. De svage nøgletal understøtter dog forventningerne til en udskydelse af QE og gav derfor et lille løft til risikovilligheden. I nat fik vi pæne nøgletal fra arbejdsmarkedet og detailsalget i Japan, men pengemarkedsrenterne stiger i Kina, efter at centralbanken ikke formåede at dæmme op for kreditklemmen med et relativt lille likviditetsindskud. Valuta På en dag med en lidt afventende stemning forud for morgendagens møde i den amerikanske centralbank var der ikke de helt store bevægelser på valutamarkederne. EUR blev dog svækket en smule over for USD, om end svage amerikanske nøgletal midlertidigt dæmpede noget af svækkelsen. Produktionen i fremstillingssektoren skuffede således med en stigning på bare 0,1% m/m i september, antallet af verserende bolighandler styrtdykkede og den regionale aktivitetsindikator fra Dallas Fed faldt mere end ventet. Et fald i det italienske overordnede økonomiske barometer kan også have trukket lidt ned i EUR. JPY ligger her til morgen stort set uændret over for USD, mens GBP er blevet svækket over for EUR efter et styrtdyk i detailsektorens vurdering af salget i oktober samt efter at et medlem af Bank of England udtalte, at det ville være katastrofalt at hæve renten før en meningsfuld bedring på arbejdsmarkedet har materialiseret sig. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 29. oktober 2013 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 28/10/13 Vestjysk Bank 3. kvartal 28/10/13 Parken Sport & Entertainment 3. kvartal 29/10/13 Exiqon 3.kvartal 29/10/13 DSV 3.kvartal 29/10/13 Sydbank 3. kvartal 30/10/13 Jysk e Bank 3.kvartal 31/10/13 Danske Bank 3.kvartal 31/10/13 Novo Nordisk 3.kvartal 31/10/13 Coloplast Årsregnskab 01/11/13 TDC 3. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 28/10/13 12:00 UK CBI Reported Sales Oct /10/13 14:15 USA Industrial Production MoM Sep 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 28/10/13 15:00 USA Pending Home Sales (MoM/YoY) Sep 0.0%/3.6% %/2.9% -5.6%/1.1% 28/10/13 15:30 USA Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Oct /10/13 00:30 Japan Jobless Rate Sep 4.0% % 4.0% 29/10/13 00:50 Japan Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Sep 0.5%/1.8% %/1.1% 1.8%/3.1% 29/10/13 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence Oct /10/13 13:30 USA PPI (MoM/YoY) Sep 0.2%/0.6% %/1.4% 29/10/13 13:30 USA PPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM/YoY) Sep 0.1%/1.2% %/1.1% 29/10/13 13:30 USA Retail Sales Advance MoM Sep 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 29/10/13 13:30 USA Retail Sales Control Group Sep 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 29/10/13 14:00 USA S&P/CS 20 City (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.7%/12.5% %/12.4% 29/10/13 15:00 USA Consumer Confidence Index Oct /10/13 00:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Sep P 1.8%/5.5% %/-0.4% 30/10/13 09:00 Schweiz KOF Leading Indicator Oct /10/13 09:55 Tyskland Unemployment Rate Oct 6.9% % 30/10/13 10:00 Norge Unemployment Rate AKU Aug 3.6% 3.5% 3.6% 30/10/13 11:00 EMU Economic Confidence Oct /10/13 12:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications Oct % 30/10/13 13:15 USA ADP Employment Change Oct 150K K 31/10/13 13:30 USA CPI (MoM/YoY) Sep 0.2%/1.2% 0.0%/ 0.1%/1.5% 30/10/13 13:30 USA CPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM/YoY) Sep 0.2%/1.8% 0.2%/ 0.1%/1.8% 30/10/13 14:00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Oct P 0.0%/1.4% %/1.4% 30/10/13 19:00 USA FOMC Rate Decision Oct % 0.25% 0.25% 31/10/13 00:15 Japan Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Oct /10/13 01:05 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Oct /10/13 08:00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence Nov /10/13 08:00 Tyskland Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Sep 0.4%/1.1% %/0.3% 31/10/13 08:00 UK Nationwide House PX (MoM/YoY) Oct 0.7%/5.1% %/5.0% 31/10/13 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Spending (MoM/YoY) Sep 0.3%/0.2% %/-0.1% 31/10/13 09:00 Danmark Unemployment Rate SA Sep 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 31/10/13 09:00 Danmark Unemployment Rate Gross Rate Sep 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 31/10/13 11:00 EMU Unemployment Rate Sep 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 31/10/13 11:00 EMU CPI Estimate YoY Oct 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 31/10/13 11:00 EMU CPI Core YoY Oct A 1.0% % 31/10/13 13:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims Oct K K 31/10/13 14:45 USA Chicago Purchasing Manager Oct /10/13 14:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Oct /10/13 /2013 Japan BOJ Target Rate Oct /11/13 02:00 Kina Manufacturing PMI Oct /11/13 02:45 Kina HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI Oct /11/13 08:30 Sverige PMI Manufacturing Oct /11/13 09:30 Schweiz PMI Manufacturing Oct /11/13 10:30 UK PMI Manufacturing Oct /11/13 13:58 USA Markit US PMI Final Oct /11/13 14:10 USA Fed's Bullard Speaks on Monetary Policy 01/11/13 15:00 USA ISM Manufacturing Oct /11/13 22:00 USA Total Vehicle Sales Oct 15.40M M Analytikere: Jes Asmussen, , jeas01@handelsbanken.dk, Rasmus Gudum, , ragu02@handelsbanken.dk Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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