Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 11. marts 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagen i dag er meget stille med hensyn til kalendersatte økonomiske begivenheder, og dem der kommer, er af den lidt sekundære slags. Vi får importpriser fra USA, reviderede tyske forbrugerpriser og svenske boligpriser. Derudover er der mulighed for, at vi får kinesiske kredittal. Dagen kan således meget vel gå hen og blive benyttet til at fordøje de seneste input fra ECB i går (jf. neden for), især efter den meget volatile reaktion på finansmarkederne. Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkederne tog først godt imod ECB-stimulans, herunder udsigten til den ekstra likviditetsindsprøjtning samt positiv reaktion fra banker på signal om at styringsrenter ikke sænkes yderligere. Dog faldt aktiemarkederne i Europa tilbage og endte i minus, mens USA endte rimeligt stabilt. Tilsvarende endte EUR styrket og renterne steg afspejlende en vis skuffelse af ECB s indsats på især renteområdet. Til morgen er der dog mere positive toner på Asiens børser samtidigt med at råvaremarkederne stiger. USA: Antallet af nye ledige på overførselsindkomst faldt uventet kraftigt i sidste uge til det laveste niveau siden oktober sidste år. Dermed fortsætter ledighedsmålet tendensen nedad siden midt-januar. EMU: Den Europæiske Centralbank (ECB) valgte på rentemødet at gennemføre en stribe nye pengepolitiske tiltag, som især var respons på de forringede inflations og til dels vækstudsigter, som fremgik af ECB s sænkede prognoser (se figur). Tiltagende omfattede bl.a. en sænkning af indskudsrenten på fra - 0,3% til -0,4%. Herudover blev også refi-renten sat ned fra 0,05% til 0% og renten i den marginale udlånsfacilitet blev sænket fra 0,3% til 0,25% Nedsættelsen af indskudsrenten er formentlig i underkanten af de høje forventninger, der er blevet bygget op i markedet, men det kompenseredes dog for via de andre tiltag, som der samtidigt blev annonceret. Således valgte ECB fra april at udvide de månedlige obligationsopkøb fra EUR 60 mia. til EUR 80 mia. Herudover vil virksomhedsobligationer af høj kreditkvalitet nu også indgå i opkøbsprogrammet. Endvidere vil der blive gennemført fire nye såkaldte TLTRO-runder, hvor bankerne kan låne penge til en rente, der kan blive så lav som indskudsrenten. Efterfølgende indikerede Draghi dog på pressemødet, at han som udgangspunkt ikke venter nye rentenedsættelser (ligesom i december) baseret på det nuværende syn, og han indikerede at fremtidige tiltag vil have en højere grad af ukonventionelt tilsnit og ECB s udvidelse af disse værktøjer indikerer samtidigt at de også har deres begrænsninger. Måske netop derfor tog markederne en stor vending i løbet af pressekonferencen fra at tage vel imod annonceringen af pakken, men dårligt imod Draghis ord. EUR endte styrket og korte obligationsrenter steg (se figur). Tyskland: Eksporten skuffede i januar med et uventet nyt fald (-0,5% m/m), og det var kun lidt formildende at det store decemberfald blev mere end halveret efter revidering. Det var især eksporten til Kina som stadig trak ned. Frankrig: Fremstillingsproduktionen steg i januar noget mere end ventet, og nok så vigtigt blev decemberfaldet revideret bort. Dermed ligge industrien sig i kølvandet på den positive start på året vi også så i Tyskland. Norge: Forbrugerprisinflationen steg mere end ventet i februar, herunder steg kerneinflationen (Norges Banks favoritmål) til 3,4% y/y (fra 3,0% i januar) og nåede dermed det højeste niveau i den tid vi har data tilbage til Størstedelen af hoppet kan dog forklares med et hop op i de volatile flybilletpriser, og vi venter ikke det vil afholde NB fra rentesænkning i næste uge. Danmark: Nationalbanken fastholdt, som vi hældte til, indskudsbevisrenten på -0,65% efter ECB s rentenedsættelse, og renteforskellen blev dermed implicit indsnævret endnu en tand med 0,10%-point. Efter et trist år for eksporten i 2015 var det skuffende, at se vareeksporten faldt med 2,0% m/m i januar. Det var væsentligt svagere end vores forventning om en lille stigning. Forbrugerpriserne steg som ventet med 0,7% m/m i februar. Stigningen over måneden i februar er dog sæsonbetonet, og den årlige prisstigningstakt kunne dermed ikke fortsætte den stigende tendens fra de foregående måneder. Inflationen blev således halveret fra 0,6% til 0,3% i februar. Faldet i inflationen skyldes primært, at den årlige huslejeregulering gav anledning til en lavere årlig stigning i huslejerne i forhold til sidste år. Det vil overordnet set medvirke til at dæmpe inflationen gennem hele året. ECB: Ny nedjustering af ECB-inflationsprognose Kilde: ECB ECB: EUR først svækket, men styrkes efter Draghi Kilde: Bloomberg For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 11. marts 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier Det ledende danske indeks OMXC20 CAP (- 0,97% / indeks 992,11) sluttede gårsdagens handel i negativt terræn. Frem mod eftermiddagens rentemøde i den europæiske centralbank (ECB) var stemningen afventende. På rentemødet annoncerede ECB en række lempelige tiltag i form af bl.a. en øgning af de månedlige obligationsopkøb til EUR 80 mia. fra EUR 60 mia., som nu også kommer til at indbefatte virksomhedsobligationer. Herudover skal indskudsrenten sænkes med 0,10% til 0,40% og udlånsrenten sænkes fra 0,05% til 0,00%. Efter en initial kraftig positiv reaktion på de nye tiltag fra ECB, gik dampen hurtigt ud af de finansielle markeder igen. Den negative reaktion kom i kølvandet på, at ECB-chef Draghi indikerede, at der ikke kommer flere rentenedsættelser. I toppen af det ledende danske indeks endte Nordea (+0,86% / kurs 70,55) som ligesom mange andre europæiske banker steg på nyheden om at, ECB vil tilbyde nye langsigtede lån til bankerne. I modsatte ende af det ledende danske indeks endte A.P. Møller-Mærsk (-3,52% / kurs 8780,00) som blev trukket ned af faldende oliepriser. Renter Der var rimeligt stille på obligationsmarkederne i Europa frem mod eftermiddagens vigtige ECB-rentemøde. Renterne satte sig en smule frem mod rentemødet, hvilket kunne indikerer en vis forventning til ECB-stimulans på mødet, kombineret med at vi modtog vi lidt skuffende tal for tysk eksport. Fransk fremstillingsproduktion kom på den anden side lige som den tyske godt fra start i år. ECBrentemødet resulterede i en ventet bred pakke af stimulanser, hvor nedsættelsen af indlånsrenten måske nok skuffede visse iagttagere. Dertil skal lægges at Draghi signalerede at renten som udgangspunkt ikke skal længere ned, samt at man fremover vil fokusere mere på ukonventionelle tiltag. Det resulterede i at obligationsrenterne vendte rundt og steg især i den korte ende af kurven. USA-renterne fulgte i første omgang lidt med de tyske op oven på ECB-rentemødet. Renterne fik dog derudover støtte fra pæne ledighedstal, samt efter at US-aktiemarkederne rettede sig hen imod børslukning, hjulpet af en svagere USD. Valuta EUR røg på lidt af en svingtur i løbet af torsdagen, og herunder især i løbet af offentliggørelsen af resultatet af ECB s rentemøde. I første omgang tog man vel imod offentliggørelsen af pakken af nye stimulanstiltag. I løbet af Draghis pressekonference ændrede billedet sig imidlertid, idet markedsdeltagerne nok ikke stillede sig tilfredse med udsigterne for hvor lavt renterne kan gå ned, samt nok stillede spørgsmålstegn ved effektiviteten af de mere ukonventionelle tiltag. Det betød nok mindre, at vi også fik svagere eksportal fra Tyskland og pæne tal for fransk industriproduktion. USD blev svækket mod EUR oven på rentemødet i ECB, og her betød det mindre, at vi fik nye pæne tale for antallet af nye ledige. JPY blev svækket mod EUR, men da stemningen på aktiemarkederne efter ECB-mødets afslutning forsuredes endte JPY styrket over for USD. CHF blev til gengæld styrket mod EUR på kombinationen af spekulationer om SNB kan matche ECB s stimulans samt den i sidste ende negative reaktion i aktier. GBP blev svækket mod EUR, mens DKK blev styrket efter at Nationalbanken ikke valgte at spejle ECB s lavere indlånsrente. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 11. marts 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Bavarian Nordic A/S 4. kvartal Brodrene Hartmann A/S 4. kvartal Torm A/S 4. kvartal Jeudan A/S 4. kvartal Veloxis Pharmaceuticals A/S 4. kvartal Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S 4. kvartal Mols-Linien A/S 4. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :00 Tyskland Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) Jan -0.3%/0.0% %/-2.2%(r) -0.1%/1.1% :00 Danmark Industrial Production (MoM) Jan -0.5% -2.0% 3.4% 2.8% :00 Schweiz Foreign Currency Reserves Feb b :10 Kina Foreign Reserves Feb $3190.0b -- $3230.9b $3202.3b :00 Norge Ind Prod Manufacturing (MoM/YoY) Jan -0.1%/ %/ %/-7.7% -1.0%/-6.3% :30 EMU Sentix Investor Confidence Mar :00 EMU Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels :00 USA Fed's Fischer and Brainard Speaks :00 USA Consumer Credit Jan $17.000b -- $21.384b $10.538b Kina Trade Balance Feb $51.00b -- $63.29b $32.59b Kina Exports (YoY) Feb -14.5% % -20.6% Kina Imports (YoY) Feb -12.0% % -13.8% :50 Japan GDP SA (QoQ) 4Q F -0.4% % -0.3% :00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook Feb :00 Tyskland Industrial Production SA (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.5%/-1.6% %/-1.3%(r) 3.3%/ :15 Schweiz CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb -0.1%/-1.1% %/-1.3% 0.2%/-0.8% :00 EMU GDP SA (QoQ/YoY) 4Q P 0.3%/1.5% %/1.5% 0.3%/1.6% :00 USA NFIB Small Business Optimism Feb :30 Frankrig Bank of France Bus. Sentiment Feb :30 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.2%/-0.7% %/-1.7% 0.7%/-0.1% :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 04. mar % 0.2% :30 Kina CPI (YoY) Feb 1.8% % 2.3% :30 Kina PPI (YoY) Feb -4.9% % -4.9% :00 Tyskland Trade Balance Jan 17.0b b 13.6b :00 Tyskland Exports/Imports SA (MoM) Jan 0.8%/0.8% %/-1.6%(r) -0.5%/1.2% :00 Sverige PES Unemployment Rate Feb % 4.1% :45 Frankrig Manufacturing Production (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.5%/1.3% %/0.8%(r) 0.8%/2.8% :00 Danmark Current Account (Seasonally Adjusted) Jan b 11.9b 11.6b :00 Danmark Trade Balance ex Ships Jan b 5.3b 6.2b :00 Danmark CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.8%/0.4% 0.7%/0.3% -0.4%/0.6% 0.7%/0.3% :00 Danmark CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) Feb --/0.3% 0.6%/0.2% -0.5%/0.4% 0.5%/0.1% :00 Norge CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.4%/3.0% %/3.0% 0.5%/3.1% :00 Norge CPI Underlying (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.7%/3.1% -/3.1% -0.1%/3.0% 1.0%3.4% :45 EMU ECB Main Refinancing Rate 10. mar 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.00% :45 EMU ECB Deposit Facility Rate 10. mar -0.40% -0.40% -0.30% -0.40% :45 EMU ECB Marginal Lending Facility 10. mar 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 0.25% :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 05. mar 275k k 256k :30 USA Continuing Claims 27. feb 2252k k 2225k :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06. mar Mar Kina New Yuan Loans CNY Feb b b Mar Kina Aggregate Financing CNY Feb b b :00 Tyskland CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) Feb F 0.4%/-0.2% %/-0.2% :30 Sverige Average House Prices Feb m Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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