Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 24. oktober 2014 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Der er ikke det helt store i nøgletalskalenderen i dag, men weekenden tegner til at blive mere begivenhedsrig end normalt. Fra Storbritannien kommer i dag den første opgørelse af BNP for 3. kvartal, hvor der ventes lidt lavere vækst end 2. kvartals stærke 0,9% q/q og 3,2% y/y, uden dog at ændre indtrykket af et fortsat solidt økonomisk opsving. Fra USA kommer der tal for salget af nye boliger. Trods et ventet lille fald i september ser salget ud til at være på vej opad efter en svag udvikling omkring årsskiftet. Anden runde af det brasilianske præsidentvalg afholdes søndag. Meningsmålingerne har siden 1. runde peget på dødt løb mellem den nuværende præsident Dilma Rousseuff og udfordreren Aecio Neves, idet ingen har haft større forspring end hvad der skyldtes statistisk usikkerhed. Målingerne er dog gået Rousseuffs vej de seneste uger. En Neves-sejr ventes at føre til en positiv reaktion på de finansielle markeder. På søndag offentliggør ECB sin Comprehensive Assessment baseret på en gennemgang af de 130 vigtigste banker i euroområdet, som vurderes at dække omkring 85% af de samlede aktiver blandt bankerne i regionen. Gennemgangen er fordelt på en vurdering af bankernes aktivkvalitet samt en stresstest fordelt på et hovedscenarium samt et worst case scenarium. Der har allerede svirret rygter om, at 11 banker ikke lever op til kriterierne, men ECB har siden understreget, at undersøgelsen ikke var tilendebragt, og det derfor må anses for rene spekulationer. Udfaldet af testen er svært at forholde sig til på forhånd, idet et højt antal banker der fejler og skal have en genoprettelsesplan er bekymrende, mens et lavt antal omvendt vil blive anset som værende utroværdigt som følge af for lempelige kriterier. Så det optimale udfald set fra et markedsperspektiv er et nok et sted midt imellem. Derudover er det vigtigt at holde sig for øje, at målingerne er baseret på ultimo 2013, og bankernes rekapitaliseringsindsats igennem 2014 meget vel kan betyde, at nogle banker, der ikke lever op til kravene, allerede nu er bragt ud af farezonen. ECB offentliggør sin stress-test på søndag Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkederne i både Europa og USA viste pæne stigninger baseret på pæne økonomiske nøgletal og fornuftige regnskaber. De asiatiske markeder har dog ikke vist helt samme styrke i nat, og der har været lidt nervøsitet bl.a. efter nyheden om at en læge i New York er blevet testet positiv for ebola. Obligationsrenterne i både Tyskland og Danmark steg mens EUR/USD har holdt sig relativt stabil JPY er dog blevet svækket. Kina: Priserne på nye huse faldt i september i 69 ud af de 70 byer som statistikken dækker, og der er således ikke tegn på, at lempelserne af begrænsningerne for boligkøb har haft nogen synderlig positiv effekt. For eksisterende boliger faldt priserne i alle 70 byer. Ifølge beregninger fra Reuters faldt priserne med 1,0% m/m på nationalt plan i september, efter et fald på 1,1% m/m i august. USA: Markit PMI for fremstillingsindustrien i USA, faldt fra 57,5 til 56,2 i oktober, hvilket var mere end ventet, men stadig et robust niveau. Den regionale aktivitetsindikator fra Kansas Fed faldt også en smule, men heller ikke nok til at give de helt store bekyrminger forud for det nationale ISM-indeks. Antallet af nytilmeldte ledige på overførselsindkomst steg med personer fra det overraskende lave niveau ugen før, men gennemsnittet over de seneste 4 uger faldt til et nyt 14-årigt lavpunkt, hvilket giver optimisme med hensyn til arbejdsmarkedsrapporten for oktober. Conference Boards ledende indikator steg med hele 0,8% m/m i september, og FHFA s opgørelse over boligpriserne viste en stigning på 0,5% m/m i august den største siden marts. Alt i alt må nøgletallene fra USA således siges at have været på den positive side, om end nyheden om at en doktor i New York er blevet testet positiv for ebola ser ud til at have vejet lidt negativ på markedsstemningen i nat. Euroområdet: Den foreløbige opgørelse af PMI-indeksene i euroområdet viste lidt uventet en stigning i den sammensatte indikator fra 52,0 til 52,2 i oktober. Det var især industrien som stod bag den uventede stigning, idet fremstillings-pmi steg til 50,7 fra 50,3. Dermed blev frygten for, at fremstillings-pmi ville falde under 50 gjort til skamme. Service-PMI var uændret 52,4. Samlet er det tegn på, at den seneste svækkelse i vækstmomentum muligvis har taget en pause, og at vi måske ser en vis bedring i væksten i 4. kvartal, efter at 3. kvartal sandsynligvis ikke byder på specielt opmuntrende læsning. Der var dog lidt skuffende informationer fra underkomponenterne i PMI-opgørelsen, idet indekset for nye ordrer faldt til det laveste niveau siden juli 2013, beskæftigelsesindekset faldt under boom/bust niveauet på 50 og indekset for outputpriser faldt til det laveste niveau siden februar For en deflationsbekymret ECB er især det sidste ikke synderligt godt nyt. Endvidere fortsatte det franske PMI-indeks også med at falde, og dermed ændrer den ellers overraskende stabilisering i det sammensatte PMI-indeks ikke på det overordnede billede af en fortsat svag, skrøbelig og ujævn økonomisk udvikling i euroområdet. Der var dog også lidt mindre pessimistiske takter at spore i forbrugertilliden i euroområdet, der steg fra - 11,4 til -11,1 i oktober. Det reverserer dog kun en lille del af de seneste måneders fald, og peger fortsat på kun meget svag vækst i privatforbruget. Endvidere er det ikke sikkert, at målingen har fanget den fulde effekt af den seneste tids markedsuro. Danmark: Forbrugertillidsindikatoren steg til 8,2 i oktober oven på det uventede store fald i september til 7,1. Hvis man korrigerede for sæsonmæssige forhold var stigningen en tand større, nemlig 9.0. Det var især husholdningernes vurdering af egen økonomi som trak op i oktober - både i vurderingen af den aktuelle økonomiske situation samt af den fremtidige situation. Vurderingen af landets aktuelle økonomiske situation steg også, mens vurderingen af den fremtidige situation var uændret. Norge: Norges Bank holdt som ventet renten uændret. Der offentliggøres først en ny rentebane på decembermødet. Kina: Huspriserne falder fortsat Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 24. oktober 2014 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+1,08% / indeks 785,67) endte i positivt territorium på trods af en lidt skidt start på dagen. Således er det ledende danske aktieindeks steget de seneste fem dage. Fremgangen i C20 Cap indekset var primært drevet af Novozymes (+8,17% / kurs 262,20) efter enzymselskabet fremlagde et særdeles stærkt regnskab og i samme forbindelse løftede deres guidance til helåret. Aktien var desuden også godt hjulpet af, at et nordisk finanshus var ude og hæve kursmålet på aktien oven på regnskabet. Vestas (+0,20% / kurs 197,40) endte stort set uændret på trods af at et internationalt finanshus var ude og hæve deres anbefaling på aktien. I den anden ende af indekset endte Chr. Hansen Holding (-1,31% / kurs 226,00) efter en række investorer havde benyttet gårsdagens pæne stigning oven på selskabets 3. kvartalsregnskab til at tage noget gevinst hjem. Renter Der var en positiv markedsstemning efter at de økonomiske nøgletal fra både Europa og USA viste sig fra den pæne side, som sammen med fornuftige amerikanske regnskaber gav anledning til en stigning i obligationsrenterne i både Danmark og Tyskland. Således steg den foreløbige opgørelse af den sammensatte PMI-indikator i euroområdet som sammen med en lille stigning i forbrugertilliden vendte den seneste mere negative tendens. Også USA bød ind med solide nøgletal. Trods et fald i Markits PMI-indeks er det stadig på et fornuftigt niveau, og både arbejdsmarkedet og diverse ledende indikatorer sendte ligeledes solide signaler. Der var lidt problemer med det seneste italienske budgetoplæg, hvor EU bad Italien om at redegøre for hvorfor det ikke lever op til kravene om gældsreduktion, men det havde ikke den store indflydelse på periferilandenes renter. I nat har der været lidt skuffende meldinger fra det kinesiske boligmarked, der viser fortsatte prisfald, ligesom stemningen har været lidt negativt påvirket af nyheden om, at en læge i New York er blevet testet positiv for ebola, og det kan sende renterne herhjemme lidt sydpå framorgenstunden. Valuta Der har ikke været de store udsving i EUR/USD, hvor en lille stigning i det sammensatte PMI-indeks i euroområdet dog gav anledning til en lille styrkelse af EUR. De amerikanske nøgletal kom dog også ud på den pæne side, og det begrænsede nok effekten i valutakrydset. Modsat blev JPY svækket i kølvandet på den positive stemning på aktiemarkederne. Ligeledes blev GBP svækket efter et større fald i detailsalget end ventet. Der ser ikke ud til at have været den helt store reaktion på nyhederne om et nyt fald i huspriserne i Kina i nat, samt på nyheden om at en læge i New York er blevet testet positiv ebola, om end det har taget lidt af brodden af svækkelsen af JPY. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 24. oktober 2014 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 22/10/14 Chr. Hansen Holding Årsregnskab 22/10/14 Nordea 3. kvartal 22/10/14 Ringkjøbing Landbobank 3. kvartal 23/10/14 Novozymes 3. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 20/10/14 01:01 UK Rightmove House Prices MoM/YoY Oct %/7.9% 2.6%/7.6% 20/10/14 08:00 Tyskland PPI MoM/YoY Sep 0.0%/-1.0% %/-0.8% 0.0%/-1.0% 20/10/14 EMU ECB's Coeure Speaks 21/10/14 04:00 Kina Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY Sep 16.3% % 16.1% 21/10/14 04:00 Kina Retail Sales YoY Sep 11.7% % 11.6% 21/10/14 04:00 Kina Industrial Production YoY Sep 7.5% % 8.0% 21/10/14 04:00 Kina GDP SA QoQ/YoY 3Q 1.8%/7.2% 1.8%/7.2% 2%/7.5% 1.9%/7.3% 21/10/14 10:30 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Sep B 11.1B 21/10/14 16:00 USA Existing Home Sales Sep 5.10M 5.10M 5.05M 5.17M 22/10/14 01:50 Japan Trade Balance Sep B B B 22/10/14 09:00 Danmark Retail Sales MoM/YoY Sep %/1.1% -0.9%/0.5% 22/10/14 10:30 UK Bank of England Minutes 22/10/14 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications Oct % 11.6% 22/10/14 14:30 USA CPI MoM/YoY Sep 0.0%/1.6% 0.0%/1.6% -0.2%/1.7% 0.1%/1.7% 22/10/14 14:30 USA CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM/YoY Sep 0.1%/1.7% 0.2%/1.8% 0.0%/1.7% 0.1%/1.7% 23/10/14 03:35 Japan Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI Oct P /10/14 03:45 Kina HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Oct P /10/14 08:45 Frankrig Manufacturing Confidence Oct /10/14 09:00 Danmark Consumer Confidence Indicator Oct /10/14 10:00 Norge Deposit Rates Oct % 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 23/10/14 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct P /10/14 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Oct P /10/14 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Oct P /10/14 10:30 UK Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM/YoY Sep 0.2%/3.6% %/4.5% -0.3%/3.1% 23/10/14 11:00 EMU Euro Area Second Quarter Government Deficit 23/10/14 14:30 USA Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Sep /10/14 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims Oct K K 283K 23/10/14 14:30 USA Continuing Claims Oct K K 2351K 23/10/14 15:00 USA FHFA House Price Index MoM Aug 0.3% %(r) 0.5% 23/10/14 15:45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Oct P /10/14 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Oct /10/14 16:00 EMU Consumer Confidence Oct A /10/14 16:00 USA Leading Index Sep 0.7% %(r) 0.8% 23/10/14 17:00 USA Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Oct EMU EU Leaders Hold Summit in Brussels 24/10/14 03:30 Kina China September Property Prices 24/10/14 04:00 Kina Conference Board China September Leading Economic Index 24/10/14 08:00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence Nov /10/14 10:20 EMU ECB's Praet Speaks in Milan 24/10/14 10:30 UK GDP QoQ/YoY 3Q A 0.7%/3.0% %/3.2% 24/10/14 15:00 Belgien Business Confidence Oct /10/14 16:00 USA New Home Sales Sep 470K 490K 504K Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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