Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 26. marts 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Der er ikke det store i nøgletalskalenderen i dag. Fra USA kommer Markits PMI for servicesektoren. I forgårs steg det tilsvarende indeks for fremstillingssektoren overraskende, og en positiv overraskelse også i dagens tal vil være endnu et tegn på, at tendensen til lidt svagere tal i januar/februar var midlertidig og nok primært skyldtes det kolde vejr. Fra euroområdet kommer tallene for kreditgivningen og pengemængdevæksten for februar i dag. Kreditvæksten var i bedring allerede inden annonceringen af ECB s seneste opkøbsprogram, og bedringen ventes at være fortsat i februar. Tallene kan muligvis tiltrække sig ekstra opmærksomhed, da årsvækstraten ser ud til at nå tilbage i positivt område for første gang siden Fra Japan kommer i morgen tidlig inflationstal for februar. Inflationen ventes at falde fra 2,4% y/y i januar til 2,3% y/y, og renset for energi- og fødevarer ventes uændret 2,1% y/y. Men når effekten af momsforhøjelsen sidste år falder ud til april, falder begge inflationsmål tilbage til tæt på 0%. Euroområdet: Kreditvækst bliver nok positiv i februar Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkederne i både Europa og også faldt i går, og Asien er fulgt efter her til morgen. I USA var det teknologiaktierne, som førte an, og Nasdaq faldt med over 2%. Statsrenterne er steget, og EUR er styrket lidt over for USD. USA: Ordreindgangen af varige goder faldt med 1,4% m/m i februar, Der var ventet en lille fremgang på 0,2% efter 2,8% fremgang i januar. Tilbagegangen i februar skyldtes delvist færre flyordrer hos Boeing end normalt i februar. Men selv når man renser for fly- og militærordrer og betragter kernekapitalordreindgangen, var der fald i februar, selvom der også her var ventet en stigning. Noget af tilbagegangen kan nok tilskrive den ekstraordinært kolde vinter og havnearbejdernes strejker på vestkysten, men den stærke USD gør heller ikke livet let for amerikanske eksportører. Tyskland: Ifo erhvervstillidsindikatoren steg for femte måned i træk, og er nu på 107,9 fra 106,8 i februar. Der var kun ventet en lille stigning. Det understreger, at tysk økonomi har stor glæde af ECB s seneste tiltag, især via den svagere EUR, samtidig med at den indenlandske efterspørgsel er solid. Ifo-forventningsindekset gik også frem, og peger på stærk BNPvækst i 1. kvartal (se figur). Euroområdet: Kilder har over for Bloomberg bekræftet, at ECB s styrelsesråd på sit ugentlige nødsituations-telekonference har bevilget Grækenlands banker ekstra 1 mia. EUR i såkaldt ELA-funding. Dermed er det samlede loft for græsk ELA EUR-likviditet på 71 mia. EUR. Frankrig: Erhvervstillidsindikatoren fra INSEED faldt en lille smule fra 99,5 i februar til 98,7 i marts. Tyskland: Ifo fortsatte opad i marts Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 26. marts 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-0,82% / indeks 963,46) endte i negativt territorium i dagens handel og dermed blev det ikke til den anden lukkerekord i træk. I bunden af indekset endte blandt andet Novo Nordisk (-1,19% / kurs 341,00) i kølvandet på telefonkonferencen om den kommende lancering af fedmemidlet Saxenda i USA. På konferencen meddelte Novo Nordisk, at der nok går mere end fem år før Saxenda bliver et blockbuster produkt med et salg på mere end 1 mia. dollar. Dagens kursmæssige taber blev Genmab (-6,80% / kurs 497,20,00) dog uden selskabsspecifikke nyheder. I den anden ende af indekset endte blandt andet Vestas (+0,34% / kurs 294,40) efter et internationalt finanshus var ude og hæve anbefalingen på aktien. Derudover modtog selskabet også en ordre på 36 MW til et projekt på Lolland. Høreapparatselskaberne William Demant Holding (+0,34% / kurs 587,00) højere i takt med, at den årlige amerikanske høreapparatkonference Audiology- Now! starter i dag i USA og løber i resten af ugen. Dagens kursmæssige vinder blev Topdanmark (+1,39% / kurs 211,50) dog uden selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Renter De danske og tyske statsrenter kravlede en lille smule opad over dagen i går. Det var nok drevet af at den tyske Ifo erhvervstillidsindikator steg mere end ventet, og nu er steget for femte måned i træk. Samtidig kunne Bloomberg berette, at ECB angiveligt skulle have forøget de græske bankers mulighed for at trække EUR-likviditet i form af såkaldt ELAfunding. Det var muligvis medvirkende til at flere af de sydeuropæiske landes statsrenter ikke fulgte med de tyske opad, hvorved statsrentespændene indsnævredes. De amerikanske statsrenter steg mere markant end de tyske på trods af at tallene for ordreindgangen skuffede noget i februar. Både indgangen af ordrer på varige goder og kerneordreindgangen faldt selvom der var ventet små stigninger. De stigende statsrenter blev bl.a. tilskrevet en mindre succesfuld auktion over 5-årige statsobligationer. Valuta EUR styrkedes lidt over for USD i går. Men man kunne måske have forventet en mere markant EUR-styrkelse taget i betragtning, at nøgletallene skuffede i USA og overraskede positivt i euroområdet. Således faldt den amerikanske ordreindgang skuffende, også selvom man renser for de mest volatile sektorer såsom flyordrer. I Tyskland steg Ifo erhvervstillidsindekset derimod mere end ventet. JPY styrkedes over for USD i går og her til morgen, måske som konsekvens af de svage tal for amerikansk ordreindgang. CHF svækkedes lidt i går over for EUR i takt med den generelle EUR-styrkelse. Centralbanken skrev i sin kvartalsrapport, at grunden til at man opgav bunden for EUR/CHF på 1,20 tilbage i januar var, at bindingen var blevet uholdbart, at yderligere interventioner ville være meningsløse og at de mulige enorme tab som følge af interventionerne ikke kunne retfærdiggøres. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP 963,5-0,82 USD/JPY 119,0-0,640 USA 1,92 0,04 CRB 217,2 0,75 Stoxx ,0-1,13 EUR/USD 1,098 0,005 Euroområdet 0,22-0,02 Brent oil (1M fut) 58,1 5,26 FTSE 6991,0-0,41 USD/DKK 6,804-0,028 Danmark 0,32 0,00 Gold (spot) 1199,5 0,84 S&P ,1-1,46 CHF/DKK 7,087-0,028 Nasdaq 4876,5-2,37 GBP/DKK 10,125-0,026 Hang Seng 24561,8 0,14 SEK/DKK 0,803-0,001 Nikkei 19495,5-1,27 NOK/DKK 0,869-0,001 Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA 0,125 0,25 0,50 0,75 1,92 2,20 2,40 2,70 EUR/USD 1,098 1,08 1,04 1,00 Euroland 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,22 0,30 0,40 0,55 USD/JPY 119,0 124,0 130,0 140,0 UK 0,50 0,50 0,50 1,00 1,48 2,05 2,10 2,30 USD/DKK 6,804 6,90 7,16 7,45 Danmark 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,32 0,35 0,50 0,70 EUR/DKK 7,469 7,45 7,45 7,45 Sverige -0,25-0,25-0,25 0,00 0,38 0,55 0,90 1,35 SEK/DKK 0,8027 0,810 0,828 0,876 Norge 1,25 1,00 0,75 0,75 1,49 1,75 1,75 1,75 NOK/DKK 0,8694 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 26. marts 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Flügger 3. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :00 Danmark Consumer Confidence Indicator Mar :00 UK CBI Trends Total Orders Mar :30 USA Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Feb :00 USA Fed's Williams, Mester and Fischer speaks :00 USA Existing Home Sales Feb 4.92M 4.82M 4.88M :30 EMU ECB's Draghi Testifies at EU Parliament :00 EMU Consumer Confidence Mar A :35 Japan Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI Mar P :45 Kina HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Mar P :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar P :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Mar P :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Mar P :30 UK CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.4%/0.1% -0.9%/0.3% 0.3%/0.0% :30 UK CPI Core YoY Feb 1.3% 1.4% 1.2% :30 UK ONS House Price YoY Jan 9.8% 8.4% :05 USA Fed's Bullard, Williams and Evans Speaks :30 USA CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.2%/-0.1% 0.1%/-0.2% -0.7%/-0.1% 0.2%/0.0% :30 USA CPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.1%/1.6% 0.1%/1.6% 0.2%/1.6% 0.2%/1.7% :00 USA FHFA House Price Index MoM Jan 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% :45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI , :00 Belgien Business Confidence Mar , :00 USA New Home Sales Feb 475K 481K 539K :00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Tyskland Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) :45 Frankrig Manufacturing Confidence Mar :00 Sverige Economic Tendency Survey Mar :00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Mar :30 USA Fed's Evans Speaks on Economy :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications mar % 9.5% :30 USA Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 0.5% 2.8% -1.4% :30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (MoM) Feb 0.3% 0.5% -1.4% :00 Frankrig Jobseekers Net Change :00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence :45 Frankrig GDP (QoQ/YoY) 0.1%/0.2% 0.1%/0.2% :35 USA Fed's Bullard Speaks :00 Norge Unemployment Rate AKU Jan 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% :00 EMU M3 Money Supply YoY Feb 4.3% 4.1% :30 UK Retail Sales Incl. Auto (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.3%/4.5% -0.3%/5.4% :00 UK CBI Reported Sales Mar ,00% :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims mar K :00 USA Fed's Lockhart Speaks on Economy :45 USA Markit US Services PMI Mar P :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 22. mar :30 Japan Jobless Rate Feb 3.5% 3.6% :30 Japan Overall Household Spending YoY Feb -3.2% -5.1% :30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Feb 2.1% 2.2% :50 Japan Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Feb 1.0%/-1.4% -1.9%/-2.0% :45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence Mar 93 92, :30 USA GDP Annualized QoQ 4Q T 2.4% 2.2% :00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Mar F :45 USA Fed's Yellen Speaks on Monetary Policy Tyskland Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Feb -1.0%/3.6% 2.3%/5.3% Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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5 Contact information Capital Markets Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Per Jäderberg Head of Corporate Loans Måns Niklasson Head of Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head, Chief Strategist Johan Sahlström Chief Credit Strategist Ronny Berg Senior Credit Strategist Ola Eriksson Senior Credit Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Andreas Skogelid Senior Strategist FI Pierre Carlsson Strategist FX Paul Betton Credit Analyst Macro Research Jan Häggström Chief Economist Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman Eastern Europe, Emerging Markets Helena Trygg Japan, United Kingdom Anders Brunstedt Sweden Eva Dorenius Web Editor Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Macro Research Tuulia Asplund Finland Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Macro Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Denmark Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen China and Latin America Norway Knut Anton Mork Head, Macro Research Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Kari Due-Andresen Norway Marius Gonsholt Hov Norway Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Per Wall Gävle Petter Holm Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Ray Spiers Luleå/Umeå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Snorre Tysland Malmö Ulf Larsson Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen Allé 11, Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC