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1 24. oktober 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Hovedbegivenheden i USA er offentliggørelsen af de præliminære BNP-tal for 3. kvartal på fredag, som for indeværende ikke tegner sig til at blive det markante rebound i økonomien som mange måske tidligere ellers havde håbet på. I dag byder USA derudover på Markits foreløbige opgørelse af PMI for fremstillingssektoren som kan medvirke til at opdatere indtrykket af hvorvidt fremstillingssektoren har passeret bunden i denne omgang. Markederne venter en uændret værdi på 51,5 efter det lidt overraskende fald måneden før. Vi mener fortsat ikke man skal vente boget stærkt opsving i sektoren. Herudover er der også en hel stribe Fed-talere på programmet, som vi venter overordnet set vil understøtte forventningerne om en renteforhøjelse i december, givet at nøgletallene arter sig. Endelig får vi også Chacgo Fed s nationale aktivitetsindeks for september. Fra euroområdet får vi de foreløbige PMI-tal for oktober. Vi venter en stigning i det sammensatte PMI-indeks fra 52,6 til 53,0, som er anelse stærkere end ventet i markedet (52,8). Indekset faldt lidt overraskende i september til det svageste niveau i 20 måneder, trukket ned af servicesektoren, men andre ledende indeks som for eksempel det investorbaserede Sentix-indeks peger på, at vi vil se en reversering af dette i oktober. Stigningen ses primært drevet af servicesektoren, mens vi ser fremstillingssektoren have det sværere som følge af aftagende medvinde fra energipriserne. Overordnet set ventes PMI-indekset fortsat at være foreneligt med relativ stabil, men afdæmpet vækst ved indgangen til 4. kvartal. EMU: PMI kan rette sig efter 2 måneder med fald Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: De europæiske aktiemarkeder udviklede sig mere eller mindre fladt, om end med en overvejende negativ bias. De amerikanske markeder lagde også ud med en negativ åbning, men rettede sig i løbet af dagen for at ende stort set som de startede. I nat har de asiatiske markeder fortsat den noget afventende udvikling. Obligationsrenterne i Danmark og Tyskland kørte også sidelæns i fredags, mens EUR er blevet svækket lidt over for USD. Japan: Eksporten målt i mængder udviklede sig bedre end ventet i september, hvor årsvæksten endte på 4,7% - den stærkeste vækst siden januar Den pæne vækst i eksportmængderne understreger at fremstillingssektoren viser modstandskraft over for den fortsat afdæmpede udvikling i den eksterne efterspørgsel. Det blev også understreget i den foreløbige PMI-opgørelse for fremstillingssektoren, der steg fra 50,4 til 51,7 i oktober den 5. stigning i træk til det højeste niveau i 9 måneder. Indekset for nye eksportordrer steg også, som indikerer, at den pæne vækst i eksporten formentlig er fortsat, og prisindekset bevægede sig op på et niveau, der indikerer at forbrugerpriserne ikke længere er faldende. USA: Fed s Williams indikerede, at en renteforhøjelse i år og et par stykker mere i 2017 efter hans vurdering giver mening. Han mener ikke, at økonomien vil lide skade af en renteforhøjelse. På den anden side mener han også, at den svage økonomiske vækst er kommet for at blive, som understreger behovet for kun meget gradvise renteforhøjelser. For at underbygge Fed s troværdighed om at inflationsmålet er han endvidere komfortable med at lade økonomien blive delvist overophedet. EMU: Forbrugertilliden steg fra -8,2 til -8,0 i oktober, på linje med forventningerne i markedet. Trods bedringen peger indekset dog dog på fortsatte svagheder i privatforbruget ved indgangen til 4. kvartal. ECB s undersøgelse af de professionelle prognosemageres inflationsforventninger for 4. kvartal viste, at inflationsforventningerne fortsat er meget afdæmpede. Forventningerne til i år blev nedjusteret fra 0,3% til 0,2%, for 2017 blev forventningen på 1,2% fastholdt, mens forventningen til inflationen i 2018 blev nedjusteret fra 1,5% til 1,4%. Trods den aktuelt fortsat meget lempelige pengepolitik, er der altså ikke mange tegn på, at det har påvirket inflationsudsigterne i den rigtige retning, som underbygger forventninger til, at ECB kan blive tvunget til yderligere handling. Belgien: Erhvervstilliden steg fra -2,2 til -1,8 i oktober, hvilket var en anelse mindre end ventet. UK: Det offentlige lånebehov var GBP 10,6 mia. i september, hvilket var mere end ventet og over lånebehovet samme måned sidste år på GBP 9,3 mia. Processen med at få reduceret budgetunderskuddet ser således ud til at være stort set gået i stå, trods strammere finanspolitik og en fornuftig BNP-vækst indtil videre i år. Det kan muligvis begrænse finansministerens muligheder for at lempe finanspolitikken. Danmark: I oktober blev det til et fald i forbrugertilliden fra 1,8 til 1,2, som dog i vid udstrækning er påvirket af almindelige sæsonmæssige faktorer, der normalt fører til fald i forbrugertilliden i oktober. Renser man for sæson steg forbrugertilliden således fra 1,7 til 2,2. Det ændrer dog ikke ved, at forbrugertilliden stadig er fanget på det svageste niveau siden maj 2013, samt at den faldende tendens i optimismen, som vi har set over det seneste år, er intakt. Det gør det svært at bevare troen på et stærkere forbrugsdrevet opsving, hvor forbrugertilliden for indeværende peger på en opbremsning i årsvæksten i privatforbruget til mellem 0% og 0,5% over de kommende kvartaler. DK: Ikke tegn på forbrugsdrevet opsving For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 24. oktober 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier Det ledende danske OMXC20 CAP (+0,53% / indeks 1.046,00) endte i et positivt territorium på uges sidste handelsdag. Dermed gik det danske aktiemarked mod strømmen fra de resterende europæiske aktieindeks, som alle endte i et negativt terræn. Den negative stemning blandt de europæiske børser var drevet af en række skuffende regnskaber. I toppen af det danske eliteindeks endte Pandora (+2,46% / kurs 918,00) og sluttede dermed en særdeles pæn uge af med maner. Den positive stemning omkring aktien skyldes primært en øget tiltro blandt investorerne til, at 3. kvartal 2016 kan blive et særdeles hæderligt kvartal. TDC (+1,97% / kurs 37,75) endte også højere til trods for, at selskabets svenske rival Telia meldte om pres på indtjeningen i Danmark. TDC aktien blev dog begunstiget af en øget efterspørgsel blandt udenlandske investorer. I den anden ende af indekset endte Genmab (-1,82% / kurs 1.135,00) efter et internationalt finanshus har regnet sig frem til, at medicinalselskabet og deres partner Janssen skal betale 10% af indtægterne for Darzalex videre til tyske Morphosys, hvis de taber den verserende retssag. Renter Der var ikke de store nøgletal på programmet til at sætte retningspilen, hvor obligationsrenterne da også så ud til at have en stille dag. Der var således ikke de store udsving i renterne i Danmark og Tyskland, som formentlig var holdt lidt nede af en svagt negativ stemning på europæiske aktiebørser. En lille stigning i forbrugertilliden i euroområdet sidst på eftermiddagen så ikke ud til at have den store effekt, mens ECB s opgørelse af de professionelle prognosemageres inflationsforventninger fortsat pegede på meget afdæmpede inflationsudsigter. I nat fik vi et par fornuftige nøgletal fra Japan, men de amerikanske renter (især i den lange ende) er dog alligevel faldet lidt, som de europæiske markeder muligvis vil følge op på fra morgenstunden herhjemme. Valuta EUR er blevet svækket yderligere over for USD i takt med at forventningerne til fortsat lempelig pengepolitik fra ECB og muligheden for renteforhøjelser fra Fed stadig spøger i investorernes baghoveder. Der var ikke de store nøgletal på programmet, men en lille stigning i forbrugertilliden i euroområdet blev opvejet af en nedrevidering af de professionelle prognosemageres inflationsforventninger i ECB s opgørelse af disse. Fed s Willimas pegede endvidere på, at han stadig ser en renteforhøjelse i år som værende passende. De kinesiske myndigheder fortsætte med at lade CNY blive svækket over for USD. JPY har holdt sig nogenlunde stabil over for USD trods fornuftiges japanske nøgletal i nat. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt #N/A %-Ændring Field Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP Not USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx Not EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE Not USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P Not CHF/DKK Nasdaq Not GBP/DKK Hang Seng Not SEK/DKK Nikkei Not NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA USD/DKK Euroland EUR/DKK UK GBP/DKK Danmark CHF/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 24. oktober 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 24/10/16 Parken Sport & Entertainmant A/S 3. kvartal 26/10/16 Novozymes A/S 3. kvartal 26/10/16 Chr. Hansen Holding A/S Helårsregnskab 26/10/16 Ringkjøbing Landbobank A/S 3. kvartal 27/10/16 Jyske Bank A/S 3. kvartal 27/10/16 Tivoli A/S 3. kvartal 28/10/16 Novo Nordisk A/S 3. kvartal 28/10/16 Danske Bank A/S 3. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 24/10/16 01:50 Japan Trade Balance Adjusted Sep 211.0b b 349.0b 24/10/16 02:30 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Oct P /10/16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct P /10/16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Oct P /10/16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Oct P /10/16 12:00 UK CBI Trends Total Orders Oct /10/16 14:30 USA Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Sep /10/16 15:00 Kina Conference Board Leading Index 24/10/16 15:00 USA Fed's Dudley and Bullard Speaks 24/10/16 15:45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Oct P /10/16 19:30 USA Fed's Evans and Powell Speaks 25/10/16 08:45 Frankrig Business Confidence Oct /10/16 10:00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Oct /10/16 15:00 USA FHFA House Price Index (MoM) Aug 0.5% % 25/10/16 15:00 USA S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.10%/5.05% %/5.02% 25/10/16 16:00 USA Consumer Confidence Index Oct /10/16 16:00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Oct /10/16 16:30 EMU ECB President Draghi Speaks 25/10/16 18:00 Frankrig Jobseekers Net Change Sep /10/16 19:20 USA Fed's Lockhart Speaks 26/10/16 03:45 Kina Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment Oct /10/16 08:00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence Nov /10/16 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence Oct /10/16 10:00 Italien Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.4%/0.5% %/-0.2% 26/10/16 10:30 UK BBA Loans for House Purchase Sep /10/16 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 21. Oct % 26/10/16 14:30 USA Advance Goods Trade Balance Sep -$60.8b -- -$59.2b 26/10/16 14:30 USA Wholesale Inventories (MoM) Sep P 0.1% % 26/10/16 15:45 USA Markit US Services PMI Oct P /10/16 16:00 USA New Home Sales Sep 600k k 27/10/16 03:30 Kina Industrial Profits (YoY) Sep % 27/10/16 08:00 Norge Unemployment Rate AKU Aug 4.9% 4.9% 5.0% 27/10/16 09:00 Sverige Economic Tendency Survey Oct /10/16 09:30 Sverige Riksbank Interest Rate 27. Oct -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% 27/10/16 10:00 Norge Deposit Rates 27. Oct 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 27/10/16 10:00 EMU M3 Money Supply (YoY) Sep 5.1% % 27/10/16 10:00 Italien Manufacturing Confidence Oct /10/16 10:30 UK GDP (QoQ/YoY) 3Q A 0.3%/2.1% %/2.1% 27/10/16 14:30 USA Durable Goods Orders Sep P 0.1% % 27/10/16 14:30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Sep P -0.1% % 27/10/16 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 22. Oct 255k k 27/10/16 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 23. Oct /10/16 16:00 USA Pending Home Sales (MoM/YoY) Sep 1.1%/ %/4.0% 27/10/16 17:00 USA Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Oct /10/16 19:00 EMU ECB's Mersch Speaks 28/10/16 01:30 Japan Jobless Rate Sep 3.1% % 28/10/16 01:30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Sep -0.5% % 28/10/16 07:30 Frankrig GDP (QoQ/YoY) 3Q A 0.3%/1.2% %/1.3% 28/10/16 08:00 Norge Retail Sales W/Auto Fuel (MoM) Sep 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 28/10/16 08:45 Frankrig CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) Oct P 0.2%/0.6% %/0.5% 28/10/16 09:00 Spanien CPI (MoM/YoY) Oct P --/0.3% %/0.2% 28/10/16 09:00 Spanien GDP (QoQ/YoY) Q3 P 0.7%/3.1% %/3.2% 28/10/16 09:00 Schweiz KOF Leading Indicator Oct /10/16 09:30 EMU ECB's Coeure Speaks 28/10/16 09:30 Sverige Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Sep 0.3%/2.7% 0.7%/3.0% 0.6%/2.8% 28/10/16 10:00 Norge Unemployment Rate Oct 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 28/10/16 11:00 EMU Economic Confidence Oct /10/16 14:00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Oct P 0.1%/0.7% %/0.7% 28/10/16 14:30 USA Employment Cost Index 3Q 0.6% % 28/10/16 14:30 USA GDP Annualized (QoQ) 3Q A 2.5% % 28/10/16 16:00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Oct F Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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