Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 30. september 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Vi modtager forbrugerpriser for euroområdet i dag. Konsensusestimatet er en stigning i HICP-inflationen fra 0,2% y/y i august til 0,4% y/y i september mens vores initiale estimat var en uændret inflation på 0,2%. Efter både tysk og spansk inflation steg mere end ventet i går, virker det dog mere sandsynligt, at euroområdets inflation også stiger. Der sker på trods af, at oliepriserne er aftaget noget, og de fleste inflationsforventningerne er aftaget i de seneste stemningsundersøgelser blandt husholdninger (se figur) og virksomheder. Derudover bør en lidt stærkere EUR medvirke til at begrænse inflationen på kort sigt. Vi forventer kerneinflationen uændret på 0,8% y/y i september. Udover inflation modtager vi også arbejdsløshed for august. Vi venter en uændret arbejdsløshedsrate på 10,1%. Grundlæggende forventer vi, at arbejdsløshedsraten vil fortsætte den sidelæns tendens resten af året og måske endda trække en smule op, hvis de mere nedtonede arbejdsløshedsforventninger i forbrugertillidsopgørelsen står til troende. Fra USA kommer opgørelsen over det personlige forbrug (del af nationalregnskabet) for august, og her ventes aftagende vækst, hvilket allerede er blevet påpeget af skuffende detailsalg. Mere interessant kan forbrugsdeflatoren PCEcore blive (ofte henvist til som Fed s foretrukne inflationsmål). Her ventes en stigning til 1,7% y/y i august fra 1,6% y/y i august, og dermed vil inflationsmålet være oppe i det højeste niveau siden februar. Dermed spejler inflationsmålet udviklingen vi har set i forbrugerpriserne, og det understøtter Federal Reserves øgede fokus på en snarlig renteforhøjelse. Efter Markits PMI for Kinas fremstillingssektoren her til morgen steg en anelse fra 50,0 til 50,1, virker det sandsynligt, og også den officielle PMI er steget lidt i september, når den offentliggøres i morgen tidlig. Danmarks Statistik offentliggør reviderede BNP-tal. De foreløbige tal for 2. kvartal viste en relativ solid økonomisk fremgang på 0,5% q/q, primært trukket af det offentlige forbrug samt af nettoeksporten. Vi venter ikke de store ændringer i det overordnede vækstbillede, om end vi ikke vil udelukke muligheden herfor. Vi vil især holde øje med, om der sker revisioner af vækstsammensætningen, hvor væksten som nævnt stort set udelukkende var trukket af stigende offentlige udgifter samt af et fald i importen, mens privatforbruget og investeringerne udviklede sig svagt. Hvis dette fortsat viser sig at være tilfældet er billedet af en noget skrøbelig dansk vækstprofil intakt. EUR: Inflationsforventninger modereres Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkederne i Europa lagde ud i går med pæne stigninger fra morgenstunden efter kursstigninger i USA aftenen før. Aktierne faldt dog tilbage igen over dagen, og efter lukketid i Europa gik det helt galt i USA og det ser heller ikke for godt ud i Asien her til morgen. Det er især bekymringer om den globale storbank Deutsche Banks helbred, som giver uro. Statsrenterne steg lidt i Tyskland og Danmark, men faldt markant i USA. Der må nok forventes renteog aktiekursfald, når de europæiske markeder åbner i dag. USA: Opgørelsen af verserende bolighandler med eksisterende boliger viste et fald på 2,4% m/m i august hvilket var noget værre end ventet. Det er et negativt signal, men det er dog blevet fremført, at den lavere aktivitet ikke skyldes manglende efterspørgsel men derimod begrænset udbud af boliger til salg. Det er bedre end hvis det skyldtes manglende købelyst, men ændrer ikke ved at den afledte økonomiske aktivitet af hushandlerne bliver mindre. Kina: PMI for fremstillingssektoren fra Markit steg fra 50,0 i august til 50,1 i september på linje med konsensusforventningen. Det underbygger, at den økonomiske vækst er tiltaget henover sommeren og altså også i september. Inden for fremstillingssektoren er der især bilindustrien, som klarer sig fint og mere end opvejer problemerne i den svære industri såsom stål og kul. Euroområdet: EU-Kommissionens ESI-konjunkturindikator steg til 104,9 i september fra 103,5 i august. Der var ventet uændret ESI. Fremgangen var især trukket af højere tillid i industrien. Service-sektorens tillid var uændret, hvilket understreger problemerne i den indenlandske økonomi. Indikatoren peger på nogenlunde uændret BNP-vækst i 3. kvartal sammenlignet med 2. kvartal. Tyskland: Antallet af ledige steg i september, den første stigning i ét år. Selvom der kun var tale om en stigning på personer, vidner det alligevel om, at fremgangen på arbejdsmarkedet fortsat bremser op. Ledighedsraten var uændret 6,1%. Inflationen overraskede på opsiden ved at stige fra 0,4% y/y til 0,7% y/y. Der var kun ventet en stigning til 0,6%. Det var især energiprisinflationen, som lå bag stigningen. Kina: Markit PMI steg til 50,1 Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 30. september 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier Mens de ledende europæiske aktieindeks overvejende endte gårsdagens handel i positivt terræn så det anderledes ud for det ledende danske OMXC20 CAP (-0,49% / indeks 1.016,21), som endte i et negativt territorium. Stemningen på de europæiske markeder var i gårsdagens handel positivt påvirket af aftalen som Opec landene havde indgået, hvor de var blevet enige om at sænke udbuddet for at komme den lave oliepris til livs. Derimod var det Novo Nordisk (-3,45% / kurs 280,00) som endnu engang endte som mest faldende aktie. Baggrunden for den fortsatte modvind til medicinalaktien skyldtes, at Novo Nordisk i går meddelte, at de vil reducere medarbejderstaben med 1000 personer. Det sker som følge af prispresset på det amerikanske marked. I den anden ende af indekset endte blandt andet A.P. Møller-Mærsk (+0,94% / kurs 9.710,00) i kølvandet på en stor prisstigning på olie efter Opec-landene var blevet enige om at sænke produktionen af olie. Uden for OMXC20 CAP indekset var NKT Holding (+1,70% / kurs 431,70) i fokus efter selskabet meddelte, at de sælger deres kabelaktiviteter i Kina til Srising Technology Co. Renter Obligationsrenterne i Tyskland og Danmark fortsatte i går de stigninger, som blev sat i gang onsdag aften efter der overraskende tilsyneladende er enighed blandt OPEClandene om at begrænse produktionen. Rentestigningen skyldes, at den højere oliepris øger inflationsforventningerne og dermed driver især de lange renter op. Samtidig giver olieprisstigninger lidt paradoksalt glæde på aktiemarkederne idet de især understøtter energiselskaberne, og det giver mindsket appetit på de relativt sikre statsobligationer. Mod slutningen af dagen vendte udviklingen, så lidt af rentestigningen udviskedes. Det tog fart i den amerikanske handel, hvor risikoappetitten led et knæk, især på grund af bekymringer om den globale storbank Deutsche Banks helbred. Det sendte aktiemarkederne og de amerikanske statsrenter markant nedad, og der må forventes rentefald også i Tyskland og Danmark, når markederne åbner i dag. Valuta Bekymringer om sundhedstilstanden i Deutsche Bank og dermed i banksektoren generelt tog til i går, især i den amerikanske handel, Det påvirkede dog ikke EUR/USD synderligt, idet krydset handlede nogenlunde fladt. JPY har derimod haft et volatilt døgn med svækkelse over for USD i går formiddag dansk tid i kølvandet på udmeldingen fra OPEC-landene onsdag aften om at man er enige om at begrænse olieproduktionen. Stigningen i olieprisen bliver opfattet som positiv på finansmarkederne, hvilket kan virke lidt ulogisk. Men konsekvensen er, at den øgede optimisme fører til lavere efterspørgsel efter sikker havn-aktiver som fx JPY. Opblomstringen af Deutsche Bank bekymringerne gav på samme måde JPY-styrkelse i går aftes på grund af JPY s sikker havn-status. Her til morgen er JPY svækket igen, De fleste Emerging Markets valutaer blev svækket i går i takt med at risikoappetitten faldt som følge af Deutsche-bekymringer. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA USD/DKK Euroland EUR/DKK UK GBP/DKK Danmark CHF/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 30. september 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber D ato Selskab R egnskab Ingen væsentlige Økonomisk kalender Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 26/09/16 10:00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Sep /09/16 16:00 EMU ECB's Draghi Speaks at European Parliament 26/09/16 16:00 USA New Home Sales Aug 597k k 609k 26/09/16 18:00 Frankrig Jobseekers Net Change Aug /09/16 01:50 Japan BOJ Minutes of July Meeting 27/09/16 03:30 Kina Industrial Profits YoY Aug % 19.5% 27/09/16 10:00 EMU M3 Money Supply YoY Aug 4.9% % 5.1% 27/09/16 12:00 UK CBI Retailing Reported Sales Sep /09/16 15:00 USA S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM/YoY Jul 0.0%/5.1% %/5.13% -0.01%/5.02% 27/09/16 15:45 USA Markit US Services PMI Sep P /09/16 16:00 USA Consumer Confidence Index Sep /09/16 16:00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Sep /09/16 08:00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence Oct /09/16 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence Sep /09/16 09:00 Sverige Economic Tendency Survey Sep /09/16 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 23. Sep % -0.7% 28/09/16 14:30 USA Durable Goods Orders Aug P -1.1% % 0.0% 28/09/16 14:30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Aug P 0.0% % 0.6% 28/09/16 16:00 USA Fed Chair Yellen Testifies before House Panel on Bank Supervis 28/09/16 16:10 USA Fed's Bullard, Evans, George speaks 29/09/16 01:50 Japan Retail Sales MoM/YoY Aug -0.8%/-1.7% %/-0.2% -1.1%/-2.1% 29/09/16 08:35 Japan BoJ's Kuroda Speaks 29/09/16 09:00 Danmark Unemployment Rate Gross Rate Aug 4.2% 4.3% 4.2% 4.3% 29/09/16 09:55 Tyskland Unemployment Claims Rate SA Sep 6.1% % 6.1% 29/09/16 10:30 UK Net Consumer Credit Aug 1.4b b 1.6b 29/09/16 11:00 EMU Economic Confidence Sep /09/16 14:00 Tyskland CPI MoM/YoY Sep P 0%/0.6% -- 0%/0.4% 0.1%/0.7% 29/09/16 14:30 USA Advance Goods Trade Balance Aug -$62.7b -- -$59.3b -$58.4b 29/09/16 14:30 USA GDP Annualized QoQ 2Q T 1.3% % 1.4% 29/09/16 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 24. Sep k 254k 29/09/16 14:50 USA Fed's Lockhart Speaks 29/09/16 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 25. Sep /09/16 16:00 USA Pending Home Sales MoM/YoY Aug -0.1%/ %/-2.20% -2.4%4.0% 30/09/16 01:01 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Sep /09/16 01:30 Japan Jobless Rate Aug 3.0% % 3.1% 30/09/16 01:30 Japan Overall Household Spending YoY Aug -2.2% % -4.6% 30/09/16 01:30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Aug -0.4% % -0.5% 30/09/16 01:50 Japan Industrial Production MoM/YoY Aug P 0.5%/3.4% %/-4.2% 1.5%/4.6% 30/09/16 03:45 Kina Caixin China PMI Mfg Sep /09/16 08:00 Tyskland Retail Sales MoM/YoY Aug -0.2%/1.9% %/-1.50% 30/09/16 08:00 UK Nationwide House PX MoM/YoY Sep 0.2%/5.0% %/5.6% 30/09/16 08:45 Frankrig CPI MoM/YoY Sep P %/0.2% 30/09/16 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Spending MoM/YoY Aug 0.3%/ %/0.5% 30/09/16 09:00 Danmark GDP SA QoQ/YoY 2Q F 0.5%/0.4% 0.5%/0.4% 0.5%/0.4% 30/09/16 09:00 Schweiz KOF Leading Indicator Sep /09/16 10:00 Norge Unemployment Rate Sep 3.0% 2.9% 3.1% 30/09/16 10:30 UK GDP QoQ/YoY 2Q F 0.6%/2.2% %/2.2% 30/09/16 11:00 EMU Unemployment Rate Aug 10.0% 10.1% 10.1% 30/09/16 11:00 EMU CPI Estimate YoY Sep 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 30/09/16 11:00 EMU CPI Core YoY Sep A 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 30/09/16 14:30 USA Personal Spending MoM Aug 0.2% % 30/09/16 14:30 USA PCE Core MoM/YoY Aug 0.2%/1.7% %/1.6% 30/09/16 15:45 USA Chicago Purchasing Manager Sep /09/16 16:00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Sep F /10/16 03:00 Kina Manufacturing PMI Sep Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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