Hvad bestemmer prisen på landbrugets produkter? Den 1. november 2012 v. Niels Dengsø Jensen, bestyrelsesformand DLG 1
Kort om DLG Blandt Europas største landbrugsselskaber Lokaliseret i 25 lande Blandt de største eksportører af maltbyg, sædekorn, foderog brødkorn, samt raps i EU Fakta om DLG 2011 Omsætning DKK 40,8 Mia. EBITDA DKK 1.115 Mio. Resultat DKK 292 Mio. Ansatte 5.273 Aktiviteter inden for landbrug, fødevarer, maskiner, energi, og telekommunikation 2
DLG er en international koncern med lokationer fordelt på: 25 lande 4 kontinenter 3
Omsætning fordelt på forretningsområder (pct.) 2011 Service & Energi 16% Husdyrernæring 30% Vegetabilske Produkter 26% Plantedyrkning 28% 4
Vækstområder i DLG fremadrettet Mineraler og vitaminer internationalt Aktiviteter i Tyskland Aktiviteter i Sverige, Polen og Frankrig Eksport af såsæd og udvikling af planteforædlingsaktiviteterne DLG Food Service & Energi 5
Hvad driver markedet for landbrugets produkter? Den globale forbruger Danske forbrugere Politikerne (via landbrugspolitik, erhvervspolitik, fødevarepolitik, støtteordninger, afgifter, kvoter mv.) Fødevareproduktion Energiproduktion 6
Den globale efterspørgsel - 7 mia. mennesker og stigende Vækst i verdens befolkning Væksten i økonomierne i Asien Stigende behov for afgrøder og kød Bioenergi 7
Millioner Stigende urbanisering i Kina og Indien - en udvikling der ser ud til at fortsætte 600 Befolkning i byerne 500 400 Kina + 275 mio. 300 200 Indien + 125 mio. 100 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Kina Indien EU World Bank, 2010
Percent Income Growth - a growing middle class causes shift in diet 10 8 8,1 8,0 Average GDP growth p.a. 2011-2021 6 4 2 4,4 4,4 4,2 3,7 2,5 1,9 1,0 0 USDA, 2012 9
mia. liter mia. liter Besides feeding a growing population an increasing share of key food crops is used for biofuel production - During the 2007-09 period 20% of sugar cane, 9% of vegetable oil and coarse grain and 4% of sugar beet production were used for biofuel production - The main drivers in biofuel production are government support and the oil prices Global ethanol production 180 180 160 160 140 140 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 - Gns. 2008/10 Est. 2020 0 Gns. 2008/10 Est. 2020 Coarse grains Sugar Cane Wheat Sugar beet Other United States EU(27) Brazil China Andre OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, 2011 10
Higher Consumption of Crop Products Percentage change in consumption: 2021 relative to average 2009-11 OECD Developing countries World % 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Wheat Coarse grains Rice Oilseeds Veget. Oils Sugar OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, 2012 11
Higher Consumption of Livestock Products Percentage change in consumption: 2021 relative to average 2009-11 OECD Developing countries World 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 % Beef Pigmeat Poultry Cheese OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, 2012 12
Forventninger globalt 2011-2020 (I): Fortsat høje foderomkostninger: Øget forbrug af afgrøder til energi Væksten i afgrødeproduktionen forventes at aftage Husdyrproduktionen forventes at vokse langsommere Væksten forventes primært at komme fra produktivitetsfremgang Forbruget af kød, mælk og æg forventes at vokse hurtigst i Asien og Latinamerika
Stronger Consumption Growth set to Continue The recent development indicates that the global growth in consumption of agricultural products is remarkably resilient to high and volatile prices The main drivers of increasing consumption: Rising per capita income Population growth Growing middle class and increasing urbanisation in emerging countries The highest increases in consumption are expected to be poultry meat, sugar, vegetable oil and dairy products The growth in consumption will mainly take place in developing and emerging countries In the developed countries the consumers will be more focused on traceability, quality, sustainability and health The demand for crops for the production of biofuel will continue to play an ever more important role 15
16 The impact of climate change on crop production
Key messages Climate change will make it harder to produce enough food for the world s population, and will alter the timing, availability, and quality of water resources. To avoid encroaching into already-stressed ecosystems, societies will have to almost double the existing rate of agricultural productivity growth while minimizing the associated environmental damage. 17
Climate change will depress agricultural yields in most countries by 2050 given current agricultural practices and crop varieties Source: World Bank, 2010 18
Hvor skal produktivitetsstigningen komme fra? Gødning 17 pct. Dyrkningsteknologi 31 pct. Vandingssystemer 23 pct. Bioteknologi 29 pct. Kilde: Monsanto 19
Long term Drivers for Agricultural Products - a complex interaction with a high degree of uncertainty Demand Population growth Income growth Biofuel demand Other factors Agricultural policies Cyclicality Sustainability Innovation Prices of agricultural products Short term drivers Foreign exchange rates Oil prices Transport cost Political stability Weather Natural disaster Supply Yield Land Water Inventory Climate change 20