Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 12. maj 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Konsensus venter et rebound i væksten i euroområdets industriproduktion til 0,0% m/m efter et markant fald i februar på 0,8% m/m. Denne uge har både tysk, fransk og italiensk industriproduktion skuffet markant, og for et par uger siden kom spansk produktion ud svagt. Det tyder på, at rebound et i euroområdets industriproduktion bliver mindre end tidligere forventet. Vi tror, at væksten kun stiger til -0,3% (se figur). Bank of England (BoE) ventes at holde pengepolitikken uændret på dagens rentemøde, selvom enkelte observatører har luftet muligheden for en rentenedsættelse som reaktion på de forværrede nøgletal på det seneste. Opbremsningen tilskrives delvist usikkerhed relateret til afstemningen om udmeldelse af EU, og derfor bør økonomien komme op i tempo igen hvis resultatet bliver et ja til EU. En rentenedsættelse vil således let kunne blive opfattet som et politisk indlæg, og virker derfor i vores øjne usandsynligt. Fokus vil i stedet være på inflationsrapporten, og i hvilken udstrækning BoE tager højde for Brexit-risikoen. Mon ikke BoE, igen af politiske hensyn, vælger at basere prognosen på uændrede forhold, altså at Storbritannien forbliver i EU. Det skal blive interessant at se, om man tør opstille et alternativscenarie med Brexit. Der er også rentemøde i Norge i dag, hvor der heller ikke ventes ændringer renten. Vi venter heller ingen ændringer i rentebanen, da nøgletallene siden seneste møde i marts i det store og hele har bekræftet Norges Banks egen kortsigtede prognose. BNP-væksten ventes at være steget lidt i 1. kvartal fra 4. kvartals 0,1% q/q. Både vi og konsensus venter, at svensk inflation er steget lidt i april til omkring 1% y/y fra 0,8% i marts. EMU: Kun lille rebound i industriproduktionen Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Der var aktiekursfald på de fleste markeder i går, drevet af skuffende regnskaber. De asiatiske markeder åbnede også med fald i morges, men begyndte så at kravle opad. EUR svækkedes i går over for USD. Statsrenterne var stort set uændret i forhold til dagen før. Japan: Bank of Japans Kuroda udtalte her til morgen, at nogenlunde stabile valutaer er godt, at det er finansministeriet, der fastlægger Japans valutakurspolitik, og at det er svært for finansministeriet at svække JPY for at hjælpe eksporten. Udtalelserne skal nok ses som en kommentar til de seneste dages udtalelser fra finansminister Aso om at intervention for at svække JPY er en mulighed. Storbritannien: Industriproduktionen kom ud svagere end ventet i marts, og momentum er tydeligt nedad (se figur). Den primære årsag er nok Brexit-usikkerheden, som også har trukket tillidsundersøgelserne som fx PMI markant nedad. Men faldet skyldes også mere generelt den lavere efterspørgsel fra resten af verdensøkonomien. Brexit-uroen har dog samtidig betydet en svækkelse af GBP, og det vil før eller siden kunne aflæses i bedret britisk eksport. Det litauiske medlem af ECB s styrelsesråd, Vasiliauskas, udtalte i går, at ECB er tryllekunstnere, og at man har flere kaniner i hatten, man kan trylle frem for at overraske markederne om nødvendigt. Storbritannien: Industriproduktionen i Brexit-fald Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 12. maj 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-0,33% / indeks 1007,21) endte gårsdagens handel i negativt terræn. Den samme tendens gjorde sig gældende over hele Europa. Dette til trods for stigende oliepriser. I bunden af det ledende danske indeks endte Carlsberg (-2,90% / kurs 619,50). Bryggeriet var aktuel med en handelsopdatering for 1. kvartal som stort set var på niveau med forventningerne i markedet. Men nogen i markedet havde formentligt håbet på et lidt bedre resultat. Genmab (+0,20% / kurs 1000,00) sluttede dagen med en ny kursrekord. Selskabet havde aftenen forinden, efter markedet var lukket, rapporteret regnskab for 1. kvartal der stort set var på linje med markedets forventninger. Uden for det ledende danske C20 CAP-indeks havde Lundbeck (+2,25% / kurs 240,90) en god dag. Selskabet rapporterede et regnskab der overgik markedets forventninger til både omsætningen og driftsresultatet. En bidragende årsag til sidstnævnte positive overraskelse var, at det igangværende omfattende omkostningsprogram går bedre end ventet.. Renter De tyske og danske obligationsrenter faldt lidt fra morgenstunden i går, men steg efterfølgende. Både den tyske og danske 10-årige statsrente endte således præcis hvor de også var endt i forgårs. Der var da heller ingen nøgletal, til at sætte dagsordenen, og chefen for den litauiske centralbank og medlem af ECB s styrelsesråd er nok for perifær i ECBsystemet til at hans udtalelser har nogen markedseffekt. Han udtalte ellers i farverige vendinger i går, at ECB er tryllekunstnere, og at man har flere kaniner i hatten, man kan trylle frem for at overraske markederne om nødvendigt. De amerikanske statsrenter faldt lidt i går efter en vellykket auktion. Valuta EUR styrkedes over for USD i går uden økonomiske nøgletal til at sætte dagsordenen. USD svækkedes generelt over for de fleste valutaer. JPY styrkedes i går over for USD trods de foregående dages udtalelser fra finansminister Aso om at intervention for at svække JPY er en mulighed. Her til morgen har Bank of Japans Kuroda blandet sig i debatten ved at udtale, at nogenlunde stabile valutaer er godt, at det er finansministeriet, der fastlægger Japans valutakurspolitik, og at det er svært for finansministeriet at svække JPY for at hjælpe eksporten. GBP svækkedes over for EUR i går og lå nogenlunde uændret over for USD. Markedet ser nok frem mod dagens rentemøde, hvor Bank of England (BoE) ventes at holde pengepolitikken uændret, selvom enkelte observatører har luftet muligheden for en rentenedsættelse som reaktion på de forværrede nøgletal på det seneste. USD/BRL handlede stort set uændret i går, mens afstemningen i overhuset om præsident Rousseffs afsættelse har været i gang hele natten. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 12. maj 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 10/05/16 Genmab A/S Q /05/16 Topdanmark A/S Q /05/16 Pandora A/S Q /05/16 Alm Brand A/S Q /05/16 Carlsberg A/S Q /05/16 H Lundbeck A/S Q /05/16 Dfds A/S Q /05/16 NKT Holding A/S Q /05/16 DSV A/S Q /05/16 Vestjysk Bank A/S Q /05/16 Kobenhavns Lufthavne Q /05/16 TORM PLC Q /05/16 Bavarian Nordic A/S Q /05/16 NNIT A/S Q Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 09/05/16 02:00 Japan Labor Cash Earnings YoY Mar 0.6% % 1.4% 09/05/16 07:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index Apr /05/16 08:00 Tyskland Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) Mar 0.6%/0.1% %/0.5% 1.9%/1.7% 09/05/16 09:00 Danmark Current Account Balance Mar 2.0b 2.0b 8.3b -2.4b 09/05/16 09:00 Danmark Trade Balance ex Ships Mar 4.3b 4.0b 3.7b 5.6b 09/05/16 09:15 Schweiz CPI (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.1%/-0.7% %/-0.9% 0.3%/-0.4% 09/05/16 10:30 EMU Sentix Investor Confidence May /05/16 11:10 USA Fed's Evans Speaks on Economy and Policy 09/05/16 15:00 EMU Euro-Area Finance Ministers Discuss Greece in Brussels /05/16 03:30 Kina CPI YoY Apr 2.3% % 2.3% 10/05/16 03:30 Kina PPI YoY Apr -3.8% % -3.4% 10/05/16 07:45 Schweiz Unemployment Rate SA Apr 3.5% % 3.5% 10/05/16 08:00 Tyskland Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Mar -0.2%/1.1% %/1.3% -1.3%/0.3% 10/05/16 08:00 Tyskland Exports SA MoM Mar 0.0% % 1.9% 10/05/16 08:45 Frankrig Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Mar 0.6%/0.4% -- -1%/0.6% -0.3%/-0.8% 10/05/16 09:00 Danmark CPI (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.1%/0.0% 0.2%/0.1% 0.1%/0.0% 0.1%/0.0% 10/05/16 09:00 Danmark CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) Apr %/-0.3% 0.1%/-0.3% 0.2%/-0.3% 10/05/16 10:00 Norge CPI (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.3%/3.2% %/3.3% 0.3%/3.2% 10/05/16 10:00 Norge CPI Underlying (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.2%/3.3% 0.3%/3.3% 0.3%/3.3% 0.4%/3.3% 10/05/16 12:00 USA NFIB Small Business Optimism Apr /05/16 16:00 USA JOLTS Job Openings Mar /05/16 Kina Foreign Direct Investment YoY CNY Apr 5.0% % 6.0% 11/05/16 10:30 UK Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Mar 0.5%/-0.4% %/-0.5% 0.3%/-0.2% 11/05/16 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications May % Kina New Yuan Loans CNY Apr 850.0b b Kina Aggregate Financing CNY Apr b b 12/05/16 USA Mortgage Delinquencies 1Q % 12/05/16 USA MBA Mortgage Foreclosures 1Q % 12/05/16 01:01 UK RICS House Price Balance Apr 35% -- 42% 41% 12/05/16 08:00 Sverige PES Unemployment Rate Apr % 12/05/16 08:45 Frankrig CPI (MoM/YoY) Apr F 0.1%/-0.2% %/-0.2% 12/05/16 09:30 Sverige CPI (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.1%/0.9% 0.1%/1.0% 0.5%/0.8% 12/05/16 09:30 Sverige CPI CPIF (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.1%/1.5% 0.1%/1.5% 0.5%/1.5% 12/05/16 09:30 Sverige Average House Prices Apr m 12/05/16 10:00 Norge GDP Mainland QoQ 1Q 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 12/05/16 10:00 Norge Deposit Rates May % 0.5% 0.5% 12/05/16 11:00 EMU Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Mar 0.0%/0.9% -0.3%/- -0.8%/0.8% 12/05/16 13:00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate May % 0.5% 0.5% 12/05/16 13:00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target May 375b 375b 375b 12/05/16 13:00 UK Bank of England Inflation Report 12/05/16 14:30 USA Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.5% %/-6.2% 12/05/16 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims May 7 270k k 12/05/16 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort May /05/16 17:45 USA Fed's Rosengren, George Speaks 13/05/16 08:00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Apr F -0.4%/-0.1% %/-0.1% 13/05/16 08:00 Tyskland GDP (QoQ/YoY) 1Q P 0.6%/1.5% %/1.3% 13/05/16 08:45 Frankrig Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ 1Q P 0.2% % 13/05/16 11:00 EMU GDP (QoQ/YoY) 1Q P 0.6%/1.6% %/1.6% 13/05/16 14:30 USA Retail Sales Advance (MoM) Apr 0.8% % 13/05/16 14:30 USA Retail Sales Control Group (MoM) Apr 0.3% % 13/05/16 14:30 USA PPI Final Demand (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.3%/0.2% %/-0.1% 13/05/16 14:30 USA PPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.1% %/1.0% 13/05/16 16:00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment May P Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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