Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 31. marts 2014 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagens fokus forventes at blandt andet at blive på euroområdets foreløbige forbrugerprisestimat for marts. Vi forventer, at forventer vi, at den årlige forbrugerprisinflation vil forblive på 0,7% i marts uændret fra februar. Det baserer vi på de stigende energipriser, som bør trække op samt på allerede kendte tyske forbrugerprisdata for marts, som viste fald. Det ændrer dog ikke på, at inflationen fortsat er inde i en lavbundet periode, og det indtryk kan eventuelt blive forværret af, at vi forventer et fald i kerneinflationen (renset for energi og fødevarer) til 0,8% y/y en udvikling som er blevet antydet af en svagere lønudvikling, jf. figur. Vi holder dog fast i, at det nedadgående inflationspres vil aftage, når vi kommer nærmere sommeren som følge af gradvist øget aktivitet kombineret med en mere gunstig årsbasiseffekt. Derudover får vi tal for tysk detailsalg, hvor der ventes et lille fald i februar oven på den største stigning i 2½ år i januar. Schweiz byder ind med KOF-instituttets konjunkturbarometer for marts, og vi venter en lille stigning baseret på yderligere forbrugeroptimisme, som dermed fortsætter de pæne væksttakter fra de forrige måneder. Fra USA modtager vi Chicago PMI-indekset, hvor der ventes et lille fald i marts. Indekset kommer dog fra et højt niveau, og holder således fortsat døren åben for en stigning i morgendagens ISM-fremstilling. Derudover skal Fed-chef Janet Yellen tale ved konference. Ellers er det en uge, hvor vi har fokus rettet mod ISM-opgørelser fra USA tirsdag og torsdag, hvor der ventes mindre stigninger i marts. Større fokus ventes dog på arbejdsmarkedsrapporten fredag, hvor vi forventer at se et pænt beskæftigelsesboom, som til dels afspejler en indhentning fra de forrige vejrpåvirkede måneder. I euroområdet vil fokus være på ECB-rentemødet torsdag. Her venter vi ikke nogen rentesænkning, men hælder til at vi godt kan se ECB tage større højde for EUR-styrken i pengepolitikken i form af mere utraditionelle tiltag i retning af yderligere lempelser. Euro: Udsigt til fortsat lav kerneinflation Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkederne viser fredag fremgang på spekulationer om Kina-stimulans og pæne euro-barometre. Renterne trækker lidt i vejret, mens EUR/USD løfter sig en smule. Den gode børsstemning fortsætter i Asien tilmorgen, bla. efter at Ruslands og USA s udenrigsministre enes om behovet for diplomatisk løsning på situationen i Ukraine. USA: Det personlige forbrug steg som ventet med 0,3% m/m i februar, oven på en lille nedrevidering af forbruget til 0,2% m/m i januar (tidligere 0,4%). PCE Core viste samtidigt en flad inflationsrate på 1,1% y/y. Michiganforbrugertilliden blev lidt skuffende kun oprevideret marginalt i marts til 80,0 fra tidligere 79,9 og fastholdt dermed det lidt uventede dyk i forhold til februar. Japan: Industriproduktionen skuffer med stort fald på 2,3% m/m i februar, og Markit s fremstillings-pmi falder for anden måned i streg til laveste niveau i et halvt år på 53,9.Produktionstallene er sandsynligvis påvirket af koldere vintervejr end normalt, mens de generelt svagere industritendenser ses at være påvirket af nedjustering af aktiviteten forud for momsforhøjelsen på 3%-point, som træder i kraft i denne uge. Euroområdet: Economic sentiment indekset fra EU-Kommissionen steg uventet meget fra 101,2 til 102,4 i marts. Det var især servicesektoren som trak op. Dermed gik indekset imod strømmen af et par andre ledende indikatorer såsom PMI, der have tegnet billedet af en lille opbremsning. Men for indeværende ser det altså ikke ud til at hverken den stærke EUR eller urolighederne i Ukraine har lagt nogen dæmper på de økonomiske udsigter. Vi vil naturligvis ikke udelukke at det kan ske på et senere tidspunkt, men den aktuelle stigning i barometret til det højeste niveau siden 2011 kan medvirke til, at Draghi fortsat vil kunne knytte ECB s passivitet til signalerne om at det gradvise opsving fortsætter. På den anden side modtog vi nye lavinflationssignaler fra forskellige nationale opgørelser. Den foreløbige opgørelse af forbrugerprisinflationen (HICP) i Tyskland viste det ventede fald til 0,9% y/y i marts fra forrige 1,0% y/y, hvormed inflationen ramte det laveste niveau i mere end 3½ år. Oven i det skulle lægges et uventet fald i importpriserne i Tyskland på -2,7% y/y i februar. Tilsvarende ramte Spaniens inflation uventet -0,2% y/y i marts, hvilket ikke er set lavere siden Frankrig bød derudover ind med et fald i producentpriserne i februar på -1,7% y/y, hvor vi også skal tilbage til 2009 for at se en tilsvarende disinflationær udvikling. Derudover skuffede fransk privatforbrug ved at udvikle sig stort set fladt i februar oven på det skuffende store dyk i januar. Endelig modtog vi ECB s annoncering af LTRO-tilbagebetalinger i denne uge, og her skete der en vis opbremsning til 1,6 mia. EUR oven på sidste uges noget voldsommere 18,9 mia. EUR. Der er stadig masser af optimisme i den danske fremstillingssektor, hvor konjunkturbarometret mod forventning viste fremgang i marts. Industrien ser således ud til at modstå de lidt svagere signaler, vi har set fra et par af vores større samhandelspartnere, og krisen i Ukrainer ser heller ikke ud til at have bremset i troen på fremtiden. Stigningen i barometret fra 7 til 12 i bragte det op på tæt ved post-krise højdepunktet fra januar. Ganske pæne EUR-vækstsignaler fra ESI For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 31. marts 2014 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+1,40% / indeks 748,15) endte ugens sidste handelsdag i positivt territorium. Den positive stemning kom i kølvandet på en tale fra den kinesiske premierminister, som indeholdt indikationer på, at regeringen er villig til snarligt at stimulere økonomien for at modgå den seneste tids svage vækstmæssige tendenser i kinesisk økonomi. I toppen af indekset endte blandt andet A.P. Møller-Mærsk (+3,23% / kurs ,00) efter den ugentlige opgørelse fra Shanghai Shipping Exchanges SCFI-indeks viste en stigning i spotraterne fra Shanghai til Nordeuropa på 44 pct. eller 371 dollar per tyvefodscontainer til 1214 dollar. Vestas (+2,16% / kurs 212,50) fulgte også godt med og kunne desuden offentliggøre, at de har ansat en ny chef for deres brasilianske afdeling. William Demant Holding (-0,92% / kurs 464,10) var i fokus eftersom selskabet afholdt en præsentation på den årlige amerikanske branchekonference, AudiologyNOW, i Orlando. I den anden ende af indekset endte FLSmidth (-1,21% / kurs 269,90). Den negative udvikling skyldes dog delvist at der gik et udbytte fra på 2 kr. per aktie. Renter Obligationsrenterne i Tyskland og Danmark faldt fra morgenstunden fredag i forbindelse med en omgang svage prisstatistikker fra Tyskland, Spanien og Frankrig. Det blev suppleret af svage franske forbrugsdata. Det øgede forventningerne til at ECB får svært ved at ignorere den afdæmpede inflationsudvikling. Udviklingen rettede sig dog en smule senere på dagen, efter at ESI-barometeret viste en uventet kraftig stigning i marts, hvilket igen kan blive benyttet som undskyldning for passivitet på ugens rentemøde. Senere på dagen modtog vi lidt USA-data, der som ventet viste en let øget stigning i det personlige forbrug, mens forbrugertilliden fra University of Michigan lidt skuffende blot blev revideret marginalt op. Sammen med fremgang på aktiemarkederne resulterede det i let stigende obligationsrenter i USA, Tyskland og Danmark. Valuta Valutamarkederne var fredag præget af en vis bedring i risikoappetitten fra morgenstunden, efter at Kinas PM Li udtalte, at landet har flere politik-tiltag i reserve med henblik på at håndtere økonomisk volatilitet. Det sendte JPY og til dels CHF svagere. Ellers var der fokus på EUR som blev svækket i løbet af formiddagen i forbindelse med en omgang svage prisstatistikker fra euroområdet, herunder foreløbige tal for tysk forbrugerprisinflation. Det blev suppleret af lidt skuffende data for fransk privatforbrug. Senere på dagen modtog vi imidlertid en større end ventet stigning i ESI-indekset for euroområdet, hvilket dæmpede lempelsesforventningerne til ECB, og sendte EUR stærkere, herunder over for USD samt GBP. GBP blev derudover svækket på lidt skuffede betalingsbalancetal samt et erhvervsbarometer fra Lloyds. USD fik lidt modstand fra tal der viste lidt svagere personligt forbrug samt forbrugertillid end hvad der var lagt ind i forventningerne. TRY styrkes til højeste punkt mod USD i fem uger, efter at Erdogans regeringsparti vinder regionalvalg. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP 748,2 1,40 USD/JPY 102,9 0,690 USA 2,72 0,04 CRB 305,2 1,64 Stoxx ,8 0,71 EUR/USD 1,375 0,001 Euroområdet 1,55 0,01 Brent oil (1M fut) 107,8-0,06 FTSE 6615,6 0,41 USD/DKK 5,428-0,003 Danmark 1,60 0,02 Gold (spot) 1295,5 0,11 S&P ,6 0,46 CHF/DKK 6,120-0,002 Nasdaq 4155,8 0,11 GBP/DKK 9,030 0,004 Hang Seng 22113,9 0,22 SEK/DKK 0,835-0,003 Nikkei 14775,9 0,54 NOK/DKK 0,904-0,001 Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA 0,125 0,125 0,125 0,500 2,72 2,65 3,20 3,50 EUR/USD 1,375 1,38 1,25 1,10 Euroland 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 1,55 1,70 1,90 2,00 USD/JPY 102,9 102,0 103,0 105,0 UK 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 2,69 2,85 3,00 3,25 USD/DKK 5,428 5,41 5,96 6,77 Danmark 0,20 0,30 0,30 0,30 1,60 1,80 2,00 2,15 EUR/DKK 7,466 7,46 7,45 7,45 Sverige 0,75 0,75 0,75 1,00 2,12 2,25 2,50 2,75 SEK/DKK 0,8350 0,811 0,847 0,887 Norge 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,25 2,90 2,90 2,90 3,00 NOK/DKK 0,9037 0,899 0,920 0,920 2

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 31. marts 2014 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Ingen væsentlige Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :01 UK Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM/YoY) Mar %/5.4% 0.6%/5.7% :15 Japan Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI Mar :50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Feb P 0.3%/9.8% %/10.3% -2.3%/6.9% :00 Tyskland Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Feb -0.5%/0.8% %/0.9% :45 Frankrig GDP (QoQ/YoY) 4Q F 0.3%/0.8% %/0.8% :00 Schweiz KOF Leading Indicator Mar :00 Danmark GDP (QoQ/YoY) 4Q F %/0.6% :00 EMU CPI Estimate YoY Mar 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% :00 EMU CPI Core YoY Mar A 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% :45 USA Chicago Purchasing Manager Mar :55 USA Fed's Yellen Speaks :30 USA Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Mar :50 Japan Tankan Large Mfg Index 1Q :00 Kina Manufacturing PMI Mar :45 Kina HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Mar F :30 Sverige PMI Manufacturing Mar :00 Norge Manufacturing PMI Mar :30 Schweiz PMI Manufacturing Mar :55 Tyskland Unemployment Rate Mar 6.8% % :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar F :30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Mar :00 EMU Unemployment Rate Feb 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% :45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Mar F :00 USA ISM Manufacturing Mar :00 USA Construction Spending MoM Feb 0.1% % /2014 USA Total Vehicle Sales Mar 15.80M M /02 EMU EU Finance Ministers, Central Bankers Meet in Athens :00 UK Nationwide House (MoM/YoY) Mar 0.8%/9.6% %/9.4% :00 Norge Unemployment Rate AKU Jan 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% :30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Mar :00 EMU PPI (MoM/YoY) Feb -0.1%/-1.7% %/-0.4% :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 28. mar % :15 USA ADP Employment Change Mar 190K K :00 Danmark Foreign Reserves Mar :00 USA Factory Orders (MoM) Feb 0.8% % :30 USA Fed's Lockhart, Bullard speaks :15 Japan Markit/JMMA Japan Composite PMI Mar :00 Kina Non-manufacturing PMI Mar :45 Kina HSBC China Composite PMI Mar :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Mar F :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Mar F :30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Mar :00 EMU Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Feb -0.6% %/1.3% :30 USA Challenger Job Cuts YoY Mar % :45 EMU ECB Announces Interest Rates 03. apr 0.250% 0.250% 0.250% :45 EMU ECB Deposit Facility Rate 03. apr 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% :30 EMU ECB'S Draghi Holds Press Conference After Rate Decision :30 USA Trade Balance Feb -$38.5B -- -$39.1B :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 28. mar K :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 30. mar :45 USA Markit US Services PMI Mar F :00 USA ISM Non-Manf. Composite Mar :30 Sverige Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Feb %/0.8% :00 Tyskland Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.3%/6.1% %/8.4% :30 USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Mar 190K 210K 175K :30 USA Unemployment Rate Mar 6.6% 6.6% 6.7% Analytikere: Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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