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1 4. marts 2014 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Det er en af de stille dage i en ellers tung uge på nøgletalsfronten. Selvfølgelig kan den verserende russisk/ukrainske krise ikke karakteriseres som stille og udviklingen på de finansielle markeder vil formentlig stadig være præget af den usikkerhed som den kaster af sig. Overordnet er det naturligvis utroligt svært at komme med forudsigelser om geopolitiske begivenheder af denne karakter, hvor meget i den kommende tid afhænger af diplomatiet, men der skal formentlig yderligere eskalering af krisen til for at se en lige så negativ reaktion i risikovilligheden som tilfældet var det i går. Uden nye spændinger er der endda mulighed for at vi fra morgenstunden kan se et rebound på aktiemarkederne efter de store fald i går. Som nævnt er der meget få internationale nøgletal på programmet i dag, som ikke umiddelbart kan siges at være de store market-movere. Fra euroområdet får vi producentpriser for januar, som ikke ventes at tegne et billede af stigende prispres i pipelinen. Fra UK får vi PMI-tal for byggesektoren, som formentlig vil tegne et billede af en lidt svagere udvikling med et fald fra 64,6 til 63,2 i februar, uden at det dog ændrer ved indtrykket af at sektoren stadig er i kraftig fremgang. Fra USA er der en enkelt Fed-tale på programmet, hvor Lacker giver sit syn på den økonomiske situation. Lacker er ikke stemmeberettiget, men hører til i den absolutte høgeagtige ende af skalaen, så det er ikke fra ham vi skal høre signaler om, at Fed måske skal overveje at ændre sin nuværende nedtrapningsstrategi givet de aktuelle svagere økonomiske signaler. Fra Danmark får vi tal for valutareserven i februar. Spørgsmålet er fortsat, om den lidt svage danske krone i forhold til centralpariteten over for EUR har ført til behov for intervention fra Nationalbankens side, som vi blandt andet så det i begyndelsen af sidste år. Stigende interventionsaktivitet ville være et første varsel om en mulig ensidig renteforhøjelse. Det umiddelbare indtryk er dog, at Nationalbanken heller ikke i februar har set behov for at intervenere på valutamarkederne. Dermed står en dansk renteforhøjelse heller ikke umiddelbart for døren, om end vi fortsat ser sandsynlighed for at det kan ske. DK: Ingen intervention fra Nationalbanken - endnu Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Usikkerhed fra konflikten mellem Rusland og Ukraine gav risikofyldte aktiver en svær dag. Aktiemarkederne i Europa faldt over en bred kam. Også de amerikanske aktiemarkeder måtte se sig tynget ned af krisen, om end i lidt mere begrænset omfang, og i Asien i nat er der tendens til en mere flad udvikling, om end de kinesiske aktiemarkeder falder. Obligationsrenterne havde pilen nedad mens EUR blev svækket over for USD men er dog styrket lidt igen her tidligt tirsdag morgen hvor Putin tilsyneladende har beordret tropper involveret i militære øvelser tilbage til deres baser. USA: Det reale private forbrug steg med 0,3% m/m i januar, og kom dermed relativt fornuftigt i gang i det nye år. De reale disponible indkomster steg ligeledes med 0,3% m/m, og der var således ikke tale om at husholdningerne måtte dykke ned i opsparingen for at løfte forbruget. En primær årsag til fremgangen skal dog findes i øget forbrug af forsyningstjenester som følge af det kolde vejr, og det reale vareforbrug faldt med 0,6% m/m. Fed s foretrukne inflationsmål, PCE-core faldt som ventet fra 1,2% til 1,1% i februar, og reducerer dermed ikke eventuelle disinflationære bekymringer i Fed. Markits endelige opgørelse af PMI-indekset for fremstillingssektoren blev opjusteret fra 56,7 til 57,1 i februar. Dermed tegner den fortsat et noget andet billede end det efter vores mening mere valide ISM-indeks, der dog steg fra 51,3 til 53,2 i februar. Der var dog svagheder i ordre/lagerforholdet. Byggeforbruget steg med 0,1% m/m i januar, hvilket var lidt overraskende givet det dårlige vejr. Euroområdet: ECB s Draghi sagde at man vil holde nøje øje med situationen i Ukraine for eventuelle spill-over effekter. Udtrykte derudover optimisme med hensyn til euroområdets økonomi, men at inflationen vil være lav i lang tid, hvilket dog er godt for købekraften. Den endelige opgørelse af PMI-indekset for fremstillingssektoren i februar blev opjusteret fra 53,0 til 53,2. Det er dog fortsat et fald fra 54,0 i januar. Det var primært Frankrig der stod bag den lille opjustering med et løft fra 45,8 til 49,7 det stærkeste niveau i 5 måneder. UK: PMI for fremstillingssektoren steg i februar for første gang siden november, og stigningen fra 56,6 til 56,9 betyder at indekset fortsat peger på vækst i industriproduktionen i omegnen af 1,5% på kvartalsbasis. Der er altså ikke tegn på at styrkelsen af GBP har haft nogen nævneværdig negativ indflydelse. Dog skal det nævnes at indekset har haft tendens til at overvurdere den faktiske vækst gennem de seneste måneder. De nye tal for kreditvæksten i januar viser at de samlede bankudlån ikke viser tegn på acceleration, om end realkreditudlånene fortsat udvikler sig relativt stærkt. Det giver en vis fortrøstning med hensyn til, at det aktuelle økonomiske opsving ikke er drevet af et uholdbart kredit-boom. Schweiz: Stigningen i det schweiziske PMI-indeks for fremstillingssektoren fra 56,1 til 57,6 i februar bragte det op på det højeste niveau siden maj Sverige: PMI-indekset for fremstillingssektoren faldt fra 56,4 til 54,6 i februar, men det var ikke overraskende givet de svaghedstegn vi har set en stribe af Sveriges samhandelspartnere, og ændrer ikke ved vores vurdering af fortsat fornuftige udsigter for industrien og især eksporten. US: Rebound i ISM men ordre/lager forhold svagt For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 4. marts 2014 Markedskommentarer Aktier Udgår som følge af tekniske problemer Renter Der stod Krim-krise med fed skrift over de finansielle markeder i går, hvor spændingerne mellem Rusland og Ukraine sendte investorerne på flugt ind i mere sikre aktiver. Det var således ikke nøgletallene der stod for retningspilen, og en lille opjustering af PMIindekset for fremstillingssektoren i euroområdet i februar kunne ikke gøre meget ved udviklingen. Renterne blev formentlig også holdt nede af ECB-chef Draghis udmelding om at inflationen var langt under målet med risiko for at blive fastholdt der, om end han også så mere positive signaler på den økonomiske front og på kreditsiden. Heller ikke ellers fornuftige amerikanske nøgletal kunne gøre meget ved renteudviklingen. ISM for fremstillingssektoren steg ellers mere end ventet i februar og det private forbrug og indkomster lå ligeledes på den høje side af forventningerne i januar. Også byggeforbruget og bilsalget var stærkere end ventet, men som nævnt var det altså Ukraine der stjal alle overskrifter og sørgede for store rentefald i både Danmark og Tyskland over dagen. Der er dog tegn på, at vi kan se en lille opblødning i risikoaversionen fra morgenstunden og dermed stigende renter efter at Putin tilsyneladende har beordret tropper der har deltaget i militære øvelser til at returnere til deres baser. Valuta EUR havde pilen nedad i løbet af i går hvor krisen i Ukraine sendte risikovilligheden blandt investorerne til tælling. Meldinger fra ECBchef Draghi om at han så risiko for at inflationen ville blive fastlåst på lave niveauer gav også medvind til den fælles valuta, om end han dog samtidigt udtrykte en vis optimisme med hensyn til den økonomiske udvikling. Europas afhængighed af gas fra Rusland var dog formentlig med til at tynge udviklingen. En lille opjustering af PMI for fremstillingssektoren i februar hjalp heller ikke EUR, hvor pæne nøgletal fra USA også gav medvind til tendensen til en svagere EUR. Safe haven demand var også med til at holde hånden under JPY, om end en stabilisering i risikovilligheden har sendt den svagere over for USD i løbet af i nat, hvor kommentarer fra Bank of Japans Kuroda om at der momentum for carry trades. Også EUR er blevet styrket igen her til morgen efter at Putin tilsyneladende har beordret tropper der har deltaget i militære øvelser på grænsen til Ukraine til at returnere til deres baser. Det har også styrket RUB her fra morgenstunden efter at centralbanken både hævede renten og ifølge kilder interveneret heftigt for at begrænse svækkelsen som følge af investorflugt. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK Kommende begivenheder 2

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 4. marts 2014 Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Topdanmark Årsregnskab Genmab Årsregnskab Solar Årsregnskab Auriga Industies Årsregnskab Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :01 UK Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM/YoY) Feb %/4.8% 0.7%/5.4% :00 Kina Non-manufacturing PMI Feb :45 Kina HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI Feb :30 Sverige PMI Manufacturing Feb :00 Norge Manufacturing PMI Feb :30 Schweiz PMI Manufacturing Feb :00 EMU PMI Manufacturing Feb F :30 UK PMI Manufacturing Feb (r) :30 USA Personal Income (MoM) Jan 0.2% % 0.3% :30 USA Personal Spending (MoM) Jan 0.1% %(r) 0.4% :30 USA PCE Core (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.1%/1.1% %/1.2% 0.1%/1.1% :58 USA Markit US PMI Final Feb :00 EMU ECB's Draghi Testifies in Brussels :00 USA ISM Manufacturing Feb :00 USA Construction Spending (MoM) Jan -0.5% %(r) 0.1% USA Total Vehicle Sales Feb 15.40M M 15.27M Kina China Political Advisory Body CPPCC Annual Meeting starts :30 UK PMI Construction Feb :00 EMU PPI (MoM/YoY) Jan -0.1%/-1.3% %/-0.8% :00 Danmark Foreign Reserves Feb :15 USA Fed's Lacker Speaks on Economy /2014 USA U.S. President Obama Sends 2015 Budget to Congress :30 Kina Premier Li Keqiang to give 2014 GDP Growth Target to NPC :45 Kina HSBC/Markit Services PMI Feb :30 Sverige Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.5%/1.0% 0.1%/0.8% -1.0%/0.1% :00 EMU PMI Services Feb F :00 EMU PMI Composite Feb F :30 UK PMI Services Feb :00 EMU Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.8%/-0.2% %/-1.0% :00 EMU GDP (QoQ/YoY) 4Q P 0.3%/0.5% %/0.5% :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 28. feb % :15 USA ADP Employment Change Feb 155K K :00 USA ISM Non-Manf. Composite Feb :00 USA Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book /15 Kina China National People's Congress starts annual meeting :00 USA Fed's Fisher, Williams speaks :30 Frankrig ILO Unemployment Rate 4Q 11.0% % :30 Sverige Average House Prices Feb M :00 Tyskland Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.9%/7.5% %/6.0% :00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate 06. mar 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% :00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target Mar 375B 375B 375B :30 USA Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) Feb % :45 EMU ECB Announces Interest Rates 06. mar 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% :45 EMU ECB Deposit Facility Rate 06. mar 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% :30 EMU ECB'S Draghi Holds Press Conference After Rate Decision :30 USA Unit Labor Costs 4Q F -0.5% % :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 01. mar 336K K :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 02. mar :00 USA Factory Orders (MoM) Jan -0.5% % :00 USA Fed's Plosser, Lockhart speaks :45 Schweiz Unemployment Rate SA Feb 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% :00 Schweiz Foreign Currency Reserves Feb 436.0B B :00 Danmark Industrial Production (MoM) Jan % -2.9% :15 Schweiz CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.3%/0.1% 0.3%/0.1% -0.3%/0.1% :30 UK BoE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Mths Feb % :00 Tyskland Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.8%/3.9% %/2.6% :30 USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Feb 150K 175K 113K :30 USA Unemployment Rate Feb 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% EMU ESM Sovereign Debt Rating Published by Fitch Analytikere: Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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