Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 1. oktober 2014 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagens hovednøgletal ventes at blive ISM s fremstillingsindeks for USA. Fra USA. Her ventes et lille fald i september til 58,5, hvormed den seneste pænt stigende tendens ses at bremse op. Det er blevet indikeret af de seneste par måneders moderation i de regionale fremstillingsbarometre, herunder fra centralbankerne i New York og Philadelphia. Derudover er Markit s fremstillings- PMI ikke steget i samme udstrækning på det sidste og udviklede sig vandret i september. Endelig har de globale finansielle indikatorer (se figur) sammen med tidligere olieprisstigninger peget på en mere afdæmpet udvikling. Således ses det seneste løft i ISM bla. især tilvejebragt af stigende bilproduktion, og i den forbindelse ventes dagens tal for bilsalget at falde tilbage i september, efter i august at været nået op på det højeste niveau siden januar Derudover vil der være opmærksomhed på ADP s opgørelse af den private beskæftigelse for september. Det kan give et hint om udfaldet af arbejdsmarkedsrapporten på fredag, og ADP er ikke mindst interessant, efter at det ikke viste samme svaghedstegn som arbejdsmarkedsrapporten i august. Derudover modtager vi realkreditansøgninger for sidste uge. Disse har fortsat udviklet sig nedtonet oven på sommerens fald. Derudover modtager vi reviderede PMI-fremstilling for euroområdet, hvor der ikke ventes ændring i den foreløbige opgørelse af at fald til 50,5 i september. I Storbritannien ventes en lille stigning i PMI-fremstilling til 52,7 oven på de sidste to måneders kraftige fald fra robuste 56,7 i juni. Tilsvarende bliver det interessant om det tilsvarende PMI-indeks I Sverige viser en vis genrejsning i september, efter det uventede kraftige fald til blot 51,0 i august. Vi venter en stigning til 53,1. USA: ISM stukket af fra finansielle betingelser Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiekurserne steg i Europa efter svage EUR-data øgede stimulansforventningerne til ECB. USA-aktier trykkes af svage tillidstal og EUR blev svækket, mens renter blandet. Asien-børser let negative til morgen. USA: Vi modtog en byge af svage tal. Forbrugertilliden fra Conference Board faldt uventet kraftigt til 86,0 i september, men efter at tilliden var løbet uventet hurtigt i vejret de forrige tre måneder. Arbejdsmarkedsindekset faldt for første gang i fem måneder, men ikke mere end det steg i august så tendensen er fortsat op (se figur). Chicago PMI faldt lidt mere end ventet til 60,5 i september, og det udsvingsrige indeks peger om noget på et ISM-fald i dag. S&P/CaseShiller boligprisindekset skuffede endnu en måned, da det i juli uventet faldt for tredje måned i streg, og endda i et lidt højere tempo på 0,5% m/m. Japan: Tankan-indekset steg i 3. kvartal til 13 fra 12 i 1. kvartal. Der var ventet et fald til 10. Det var især investeringsforventningerne der trak op, og det bør mindske stimulansforventninger til BoJ. Kina: NBS s PMI-fremstilling var stort set som ventet fladt på 51,1 i september, hvilket også spejlede udviklingen i HSBC s PMI. Kinas centralbank meldte i går ud, at andengangskøbere kan få samme vilkår som førstegangskøbere, hvis blot de har betalt deres gæld ud på det første køb. Hermed bliver det lettere og billigere at få finansieret køb af bolig nummer to. Euroområdet: Ny omgang svage nøgletal (se figur). Arbejdsløshedsraten var uændret 11,5% i august og ser dermed ud til at have stoppet den gradvist faldende tendens over det seneste års tid. Antallet af ledige faldt dog med personer i august. Derudover faldt forbrugerprisinflationen som ventet til 0,3% y/y fra forrige 0,4%, og endnu mere udtalt var faldet i kerneinflationen til 0,7% fra forrige 0,9%. Dermed øges presset på ECB for at levere yderligere stimulanstiltag end de allerede annoncerede. Tyskland: Detailsalget steg i august langt mere end ventet med 2,5% m/m. Det var den største stigning i mere end tre år og samtidig blev det uventede store fald på -1,1% m/m juli således mere end reverseret. Ledigheden steg lidt mere end ventet i september med personer, men det ændrede dog ikke på arbejdsløshedsraten, der uændret lød på 6,7% for syvende måned i streg. Frankrig: Privatforbruget steg uventet kraftigt i august, og reverserede dermed faldet i juli. Storbritannien: BNP-væksten blev revideret et hak op til 0,9% q/q i 2. kvartal, mens Nationwides boligprisindeks uventet viste det første fald i 1½ år på 0,2% m/m i september. Schweiz: KOF-indekset faldt nogenlunde som ventet til 99,1 i september fra 99,5 i august. Indekset er dermed stabiliseret efter den faldende tendens igennem 1. halvår. BNP-væksten i Q2 revideres op til 0,2% q/q fra tidligere 0% q/q. Danmark: BNP-væksten i 2. kvartal blev oprevideret til 0,2% q/q fra -0,3% q/q i de nye (hovedreviderede) nationalregnskabstal. Nu fremstår økonomien som nævnt stærkere i 2. kvartal, men samtidigt blev væksten i 1. kvartal nedjusteret. Vi skal nok revideres vores vækstestimat for 2014 lidt op, men det ændrer ikke på indtrykket af et haltende opsving. Brutto-arbejdsløshedsraten faldt uventet en tand til 5,0% i august, mens AKU-ledighedsprocenten her steg markant til 6,7% fra 6,4% i maj. Det skyldtes dog, at arbejdsstyrken er steget kraftigere end beskæftigelsen i perioden. USA: CB s jobindeks stadig med faldende tendens EUR: Ledighedsfald bremser og inflation ned For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 1. oktober 2014 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+0,09% / indeks 807,00) sluttede dagens handel i stort set uensartet terræn på en dag med forholdsvis få selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Stemningen var generelt afventende forud for torsdagens rentemøde i den europæiske centralbank og fredagens amerikanske arbejdsmarkedsrapport. Der blev i løbet af dagen offentliggjort inflationstal for eurozonen som viste, at inflationen aftog til blot 0,3% i september fra 0,4% i august. Det var det laveste niveau i næsten 5 år og øgede dermed presset på ECB til at komme med et storstillet obligationsopkøbsprogram. I bunden af indekset endte blandt andet ISS (-0,75% / kurs 159,80) uden at der dog var nogen nævneværdige selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Dermed lukkede aktien for første gang på et lavere niveau end de 160 kr. som aktien blev børsintroduceret på i marts. I modsatte ende af indekset endte GN Store Nord (+3,50% / kurs 130,00) som tog lidt revanche efter aktien under en længere periode har været under pres, som følge af blandt andet bekymringer for stigende konkurrence fra Sonova som snart lancerer et nyt høreapparat der skal konkurrere med GN Store Nords LiNX, der blev lanceret tidligere på året.. Renter Første del af tirsdagen var især præget af nøgletal fra euroområdet. Her var arbejdsløshedsraten uændret høj samtidigt med at inflationen faldt, herunder mere end ventet i kernemålet. Det øgede forventningerne til ECB-stimulans og holdt tyske (og danske) obligationsrenter nede, mens aktiemarkedernes positive reaktion gjorde sit for at trække opad i den lange ende af rentekurven. Derudover så vi lidt flere ledige i Tyskland i september end ventet, mens både tyske og franske tal for husholdningernes købelyst viste sig fra den positive side. De amerikanske obligationsrenter blev således sendt opad af den bedrede europæiske børsstemning. USA-tallene faldt imidlertid ud til den svage side med CB-forbrugertilliden i front, da den dykkede kraftigt i september. Renterne i USA ender i lille stigning mens tyske og danske renter ender i lille minus. Valuta EUR oplevede tirsdag en ny markant svækkelse oven på en omgang svage nøgletal, som øgede forhåbningerne til mere ECBstimulans. Således faldt forbrugerpriserne overordnet lidt mere end ventet mens arbejdsløshedsraten udviklede sig stabilt. Tys ledighed skuffede en smule mens forbrugsdata for både Tyskland og Frankrig overraskede positivt. EUR nåede således under 1,26 pr. USD for første gang i to år. USD kastede dog lidt af dagens styrkelse fra sig efter offentliggørelsen af en byge af svage nøgletal, herunder CB s forbrugertillid, S&P/CaseShiller boligprisindeks samt Chicago PMI. GBP blev også styrket mod EUR, og fik medvind fra mindre BNP-oprevidering, mens boligpriser uventet viste det første fald i 1½ år. CHF i nyt stærkeste niveau mod EUR siden november 2012 understøttet af oprevideret BNP-vækst i 2. kvartal til 0,2% fra tidligere 0,0%. JPY blev svækket mod USD endnu en dag til trods for lidt trist børsstemning i USA og Asien, samt en uventet stigning i Tankanindekset. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP 807,0 0,09 USD/JPY 109,9 0,510 USA 2,51 0,01 CRB 278,6 1,64 Stoxx ,1 0,61 EUR/USD 1,262-0,007 Euroområdet 0,95-0,02 Brent oil (1M fut) 95,1-2,26 FTSE 6622,7-0,36 USD/DKK 5,899 0,035 Danmark 0,93-0,01 Gold (spot) 1206,1-0,95 S&P ,3-0,28 CHF/DKK 6,173 0,006 Nasdaq 4493,4-0,28 GBP/DKK 9,553 0,017 Hang Seng 22933,0-1,28 SEK/DKK 0,817 0,007 Nikkei 16165,9-0,05 NOK/DKK 0,917 0,006 Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA 0,125 0,125 0,500 1,000 2,51 2,45 2,80 3,10 EUR/USD 1,262 1,27 1,25 1,10 Euroland 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,95 0,95 1,30 1,60 USD/JPY 109,8 107,0 105,0 107,0 UK 0,50 0,50 0,75 1,00 2,45 2,55 2,75 3,00 USD/DKK 5,898 5,87 5,96 6,77 Danmark 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,93 1,00 1,35 1,65 EUR/DKK 7,444 7,45 7,45 7,45 Sverige 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,75 1,51 1,50 1,95 2,30 SEK/DKK 0,8172 0,819 0,828 0,851 Norge 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 2,29 2,60 2,70 2,70 NOK/DKK 0,9168 0,898 0,898 0,909 2

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 1. oktober 2014 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab STYLEPIT Årsregnskab Bang & Olufsen 1. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :00 EMU Economic Confidence Sep :00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Sep P -0.1%/0.8% 0.0%/0.8% 0.0%/0.8% :00 Tyskland CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) Sep P -0.1%/0.7% 0.0%/0.8% 0.0%/0.8% :30 USA Personal Income/Spending (MoM) Aug 0.3%/0.4% %/-0.1% 0.3%/0.5% :30 USA PCE Core (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.0%/1.4% %/1.5% 0.1%/1.5% :00 USA Fed's Evans Speaks :00 USA Pending Home Sales (MoM/YoY) Aug -0.5%/2.0% %/-2.8%(r) -1.0%/-4.1% :30 USA Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Sep :05 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Sep :30 Japan Jobless Rate Aug 3.8% % 3.5% :50 Japan Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.7%/0.3% %/-0.6% 1.9%/1.2% :50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Aug P 0.2%/-1.1% %/-0.7% -1.5%/-2.9% :45 Kina HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Sep F :00 Tyskland Retail Sales MoM Aug 0.5%/0.3% %/1.0% 2.5%/0.1% :45 Frankrig Consumer Spending (MoM/YoY) Aug -0.2%/1.3% %/0.1% 0.7%1.4% :00 Danmark GDP (QoQ/YoY) 2Q F -0.3%/-0.1% -0.2%/0.0% -0.7%/0.1% 0.2%/0.3% :00 Danmark Unemployment Rate SA Aug 4.1% 4.1% 4.0%(r) 3.9% :00 Danmark Unemployment Rate Gross Rate Aug 5.1% 5.2% 5.1% 5.0% :00 Schweiz KOF Leading Indicator Sep (r) :55 Tyskland Unemployment Rate Sep 6.7% % 6.7% :30 UK GDP (QoQ/YoY) 2Q F 0.8%/3.2% %/3.2% 0.9%/3.2% :00 EMU Unemployment Rate Aug 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% :00 EMU CPI Estimate YoY Sep 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% :00 EMU CPI Core YoY Sep A 0.9% 0.7% 0.9% 0.7% :00 USA S&P/CS 20 City (MoM/YoY) Jul -0.10%/7.4% %/8.07% -0.5%/6.75% :45 USA Chicago Purchasing Manager Sep :00 USA Consumer Confidence Index Sep :50 Japan Tankan Large Mfg Index 3Q :00 Kina Manufacturing PMI Sep :35 Japan Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI Sep F , :30 Sverige PMI Manufacturing Sep :30 Schweiz PMI Manufacturing Sep :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Sep F :30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Sep :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 26. sep % :15 USA ADP Employment Change Sep 204K K :45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Sep F :00 USA ISM Manufacturing Sep :00 USA Construction Spending MoM Aug 0.4% % USA Total Vehicle Sales Sep 16.90M M :30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Sep :00 EMU PPI (MoM/YoY) Aug %/-1.1% :30 USA Challenger Job Cuts YoY Sep % :30 USA RBC Consumer Outlook Index Oct :45 EMU ECB Main Refinancing Rate Oct % 0.050% 0.050% :45 EMU ECB Deposit Facility Rate Oct % % % :30 EMU ECB'S Draghi Holds Press Conference :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 27. sep K :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 28. sep :00 Danmark Foreign Reserves Sep :00 USA Factory Orders (MoM) Aug -9.0% % :00 Kina Non-manufacturing PMI Sep :30 Sverige Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Aug %/1.0% -1.1%/-5.7% :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Sep F :30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI Sep :00 EMU Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Aug %/0.8% :30 USA Trade Balance Aug -$40.7B -- -$40.5B :30 USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Sep 210K 225K 142K :30 USA Unemployment Rate Sep 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% :45 USA Markit US Composite PMI Sep F :00 USA ISM Non-Manf. Composite Sep Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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