Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 4. marts 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus I dag vil der især være fokus på USA og centralbanken (Fed). Vi modtager således i aften Fed s Beige Book -rapport, som er det økonomiske oplæg til det kommende rentemøde den 18. marts. Her vil det især blive fulgt, om banken gentager vurderingen af en beskeden til moderat vækst i økonomien drevet af privatforbruget. Derudover vil der være opmærksomhed på vurderingen af inflation og lønudvikling og om den bekræfter formodningen om at inflationsfaldet er midlertidigt samt om lønvæksten viser tegn på stigning. Rapporten bliver suppleret af taler fra et par FOMCmedlemmer. Disse kan eventuelt understøtte det forestående skifte vi venter vil ske i centralbankens guidance om tålmodighed med at foretage den første renteforhøjelse, og dermed flage at en renteforhøjelse er rykket tættere på. Blandt nøgletallene vil opmærksomheden især være på ISM s serviceindeks. Modsat fremstillingssektoren, som er mere eksponeret over for eksportudviklingen, er servicesektoren mere afhængig af den indenlandske efterspørgsel, som fortsat viser flotte tendenser. ISM s serviceindeks forventes rimeligt uændret omkring høje 56,7 i februar. Dog er forbrugertilliden senest faldet tilbage som følge af stigende oliepriser. Derudover har detailsalget skuffet markant på det sidste, hvilket kan smitte af på ISM-indekset (jf. figur). På den anden side steg det tilsvarende PMI-indeks fra Markit højst overraskende i februar. Derfor råder der en del usikkerhed om udfaldet, og konsensus ligger da også til en nogenlunde flad udvikling omkring januar-niveauet på 56,7. Vi ser dog risiko for et fald. Ydermere modtager vi ADP s beskæftigelsesindeks for den private sektor i februar. Indekset matchede det opgørelsen af den private beskæftigelse fra Bureau of Labor Statistics i januar, og vil derfor give et hint om udfaldet af fredagens arbejdsmarkedsrapport. Vi forventer en større stigning i beskæftigelsesfremgangen end i januar, ligesom vi venter en større stigning end konsensus. Endelig modtager vi opgørelsen over realkreditansøgninger i sidste uge. Disse er faldet tilbage de seneste uger i takt med at realkreditrenterne er steget, og det bliver interessant om udviklingen fortsætter. I euroområdet modtager vi detailsalg for januar. Her ventes som udgangspunkt en stigning på beskedne 0,2% m/m - stort set som i december. Dog salget meget vel vise sig større efter de robuste salgstal fra Tyskland (jf. neden for). USA: Faktisk salg kan trække ned i ISM Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Relativ stille dag hvor aktiemarkederne antog en negativ udvikling. Obligationsrenterne trak imidlertid i vejret (minus Danmark) og EUR svækkes en smule. USA: Repræsentanternes Hus vedtager finansiering af Homeland Security Department frem til og med september og undgik dermed en nedlukning af ministeriet. Bilsalget skuffer i februar med et fald for tredje måned i streg, hvormed salget nåede det laveste niveau i 10 måneder. Kina: HSBC s service-pmi steg en smule til 52,0 i februar efter det store fald til 51,8 i januar. Indien: Indiens centralbank sænker overraskende styringsrenten med 0,25%-point til 7,5% mellem rentemøderne. Rentenedsættelsen sker få dage efter statsbudgettet for i år faldt på plads med sænkede konsolideringsmål. Centralbanken anførte at nedsættelsen sker på svagere økonomiske udsigter samt efter at den aftalte et formelt inflationsmål (på 4% +/ 2%-point) med regeringen. Euroområdet: Producentpriserne (PPI) faldt en smule mere end ventet i januar, hvilket bragte årsinflationen ned i lave -3,4% fra -2,6% i december. Kerne-PPI faldt til -0,7% i januar fra forrige -0,4% og indikerer at der vil være fortsat tryk nedad på kerneforbrugerpriserne igennem meget af Tyskland: Detailsalget accelererede uventet kraftigt i januar og viste dermed den største månedsstigning i syv år. Lavere oliepriser, lave renter samt faldende arbejdsløshed kombineret med højere lønninger ud til at husholdningernes købelyst til at stige ganske pænt i årets begyndelse. Grækenland: EBRD (European Bank for Rconstruction and Development) beslutter at tilbyde finansiering (på omkring 1 mia. EUR) til Grækenland de næste fem år. Schweiz: BNP-væksten i 4. kvartal viste lidt overraskende, at Schweiz stort set formåede at opretholde den pæne vækstfremgang fra 3. kvartal. Mellem de to kvartaler lød væksten således på 0,6% k/k, mens 3. kvartal blev oprevideret en tand til 0,7%. Det indebar at væksten for hele 2014 endte på 2,0% og dermed matchede væksten i 2013, og således absolut fastholdt sin plads i den høje ende af vækstligaen i Europa. Det giver et godt vækst-udgangspunkt for inden CHFstyrkelseseffekten sandsynligvis rammer økonomien markant negativt i de kommende par kvartaler (se figur). Danmark: Valutareserven steg stort set som ventet med rekordstore 172,9 mia. DKK i februar, herunder var Nationalbankens nettovalutakøb 168,7 mia. DKK. Lidt udsædvanligt fremhævede Nationalbanken i meddelelsen, at hovedparten af interventionerne i valutamarkedet var sket omkring rentenedsættelsen den 5. februar, samt at Nationalbanken ikke intervenerede i sidste del af februar. Ifølge vores model for valutastrømmen var det primært den sidste uge af februar, der ikke kunne spores den store interventionsaktivitet. Schweiz: KOF flager markant vækstopbremsning Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 4. marts 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-0,65% / indeks 932,15) endte gårsdagens handel i negativt territorium. Stemningen blev en smule forværret efter offentliggørelsen af producentpriser fra eurozonen, der viste et fald på 0,9% på månedsbasis og 3,3% på årsbasis. Det pustede til frygten for, at eurozonen er ved at ende i en negativ deflationsspiral. I toppen af indekset endte Genmab (+6,91% / kurs 518,50) i kølvandet på at selskabet aftenen forinden rapporterede regnskab for 4. kvartal som også indeholdt selskabets forventninger til i år. Forventningerne var lidt skuffende, men indeholdt ikke eventuelle milepælsbetalinger fra en godkendelse af Daratumumab. En del finanshuse var efterfølgende ude og fremhæve, at en eventuel godkendelse af Daratumumab i Europa og USA i år vil være en væsentlig kurstrigger. ISS (+0,96% /kurs 210,00) endte også højere og nød godt af, at den norske investeringsbank ABG hævede deres kursmål på aktien til 250 kr. fra 205 kr. I modsatte ende af indekset, endte blandt andet GN Store Nord (-2,65% /kurs 150,40) selvom der ikke var nogen væsentlige selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Dog rapporterede den italienske høreapparatdistributør Amplifon årsregnskab, som var lidt skuffende. Eftersom GN Store Nord er en af Amplifons største leverandører, smittede det lidt skuffende regnskab af på GN-aktien. Renter Tirsdagen var en stille dag på rentemarkederne og der skete ikke de store udsving set over dagen. På trods af at stemningen på aktiemarkederne var let negativ, så vi små stigninger i obligationsrenterne. Måske de tyske rentestigninger hentede lidt inspiration fra solide tal for detailsalget i januar, mens det så ud til at det store fald i producentprisinflationen betød mindre. Renterne på de danske statsobligationer trak imidlertid lidt nedad og udvidede igen den negative renteforskel til de tilsvarende tyske statsrenter. Således er der tegn på at styrkelsespresset på DKK er vendt lidt tilbage efter at Nationalbanken ellers lidt usædvanligt sagde at der ikke havde været interventionsaktivitet i den sidste del af februar. USA fulgte den europæiske retning med stigende renter på trods af en negativ børsudvikling samt en skuffende opgørelse over bilsalget i februar. Valuta EUR/USD svingede over tirsdagen og endte lavere på en dag uden de helt store begivenheder, hvor PPI for euroområdet dog faldt mere end ventet i januar. Det overskyggede, at vi fik stærke tyske tal for detailsalg samt svage bilsalgstal fra USA. JPY styrkes i overensstemmelse med den negative tendens på børserne. GBP blev styrket mod EUR efter at CIPS construction-pmi i februar uventet steg til 60,1. SEK styrkes efter kommentarer fra Riksbankens Ingves samt Skingsley om at SEK vil styrkes gradvist fremover. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP 932,2-0,65 USD/JPY 119,7-0,060 USA 2,13 0,04 CRB 222,0 0,02 Stoxx ,7-0,92 EUR/USD 1,117-0,002 Euroområdet 0,36 0,01 Brent oil (1M fut) 60,6 0,46 FTSE 6889,1-0,74 USD/DKK 6,674 0,018 Danmark 0,34-0,01 Gold (spot) 1207,7-0,12 S&P ,8-0,45 CHF/DKK 6,937-0,024 Nasdaq 4979,9-0,56 GBP/DKK 10,245 0,013 Hang Seng 24645,5-0,23 SEK/DKK 0,806 0,007 Nikkei 18703,6-0,59 NOK/DKK 0,865-0,001 Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA 0,13 0,25 0,50 1,25 2,13 2,10 2,20 2,50 EUR/USD 1,117 1,11 1,07 1,00 Euroland 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,36 0,40 0,50 0,80 USD/JPY 119,7 121,0 130,0 140,0 UK 0,50 0,50 0,50 1,00 1,78 1,65 1,80 2,10 USD/DKK 6,673 6,71 6,96 7,45 Danmark 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,34 0,35 0,45 0,80 EUR/DKK 7,453 7,45 7,45 7,45 Sverige -0,10-0,10-0,10 0,25 0,75 0,75 0,90 1,40 SEK/DKK 0,8057 0,784 0,828 0,876 Norge 1,25 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,42 1,75 1,75 1,75 NOK/DKK 0,8649 0,837 0,837 0,851 2

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 4. marts 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Genmab Årsregnskab Veloxis Årsregnskab D/S Norden Årsregnskab Torm Årsregnskab SAS 1. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :35 Japan Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI Feb F :45 Kina HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Feb F :00 UK Nationwide House (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.4%/6.2% %/6.8% -0.1%/5.7% :30 Sverige Manufacturing PMI Feb 55,0 55,3 55, :00 Danmark Unemployment Rate SA Jan % 4.0% :00 Danmark Unemployment Rate Gross Rate Jan % 5.0% 4,90% :30 Schweiz PMI Manufacturing Feb :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Feb F :30 UK Mortgage Approvals Jan 61.0K K 60.8K :30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Feb :00 EMU Unemployment Rate Jan 11.4% 11.4% 11.4% 11.2% :00 EMU CPI Estimate YoY Feb -0.4% -0,3% -0.6% -0,3% :00 EMU CPI Core YoY Feb A 0.5% 0,6% 0.6% 0.6% :30 USA Personal Income (MoM) Jan 0.4% % 0,30% :30 USA Personal Spending (MoM) Jan -0.1% % -0.2% :30 USA PCE Core (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.1%/1.3% %/1.3% 0.1%/1.3% :45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Feb F :00 USA Construction Spending (MoM) Jan 0.4% % -1.1% :00 USA ISM Manufacturing Feb , :00 Tyskland Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.4%/2.6% %/4.6%(r) 2.9%/5.3% :45 Schweiz GDP QoQ 0.3%/1.6% 0.3%/ 0.7%/1.9%(r) 0.6%/1.9% :30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Feb :00 EMU PPI (MoM/YoY) Jan -0.7%/-3.0% %/2.6% -0.9%/-3.4% :00 Danmark Foreign Reserves 729bn 734bn 564.1bn 737.1bn :35 Japan Markit Japan Services PMI :45 Kina HSBC China Services PMI Feb :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Feb F :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Feb F :30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Feb :00 EMU Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.2%/2.3% %/2.8% :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications % :15 USA ADP Employment Change Feb 220K K :00 USA Fed's Evans Speaks on Monetary Policy :45 USA Markit US Services PMI :00 USA ISM Non-Manf. Composite :00 USA Fed's George Speaks on the Economy :00 USA U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book :30 Frankrig ILO Unemployment Rate 4Q 10.4% % :00 Tyskland Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) Jan -0.9% %/3.4% :30 Sverige Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jan %/0.2% 1.7%/-1.6% :00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate % :30 USA Challenger Job Cuts YoY Feb % :45 EMU ECB Main Refinancing Rate % 0.050% 0.050% :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims K :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort :00 USA Factory Orders (MoM) Jan 0.0% % :00 USA Fed's Williams Speaks on the Economic Outlook /15 Kina National People's Congress (Premier's speech) :00 Tyskland Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.5% %/-0.7% :00 Schweiz Foreign Currency Reserves Feb B :00 Danmark Industrial Production MoM Jan % :15 Schweiz CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.0%/-0.6% %/-0.5% :00 EMU GDP (QoQ/YoY) 4Q P 0.3%/0.9% %/0.9% :30 USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Feb 240K 280K 257K :30 USA Unemployment Rate Feb 5.6% 5.5% 5.7% :30 USA Average Hourly Earnings YoY Feb 2.2% % :30 USA Trade Balance Jan -$41.5B -- -$46.6B Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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