Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 7. januar 2014 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagens primære fokus forventes at blive på den foreløbige opgørelse af forbrugerprisinflationen i euroområdet i december. Som udgangspunkt ventede vi en rimelig stabil inflationsrate på omkring 0,9% y/y her, og det samme gælder kerneinflationen. Således har inflationsforventningerne holdt sig rimeligt stabile, ligesom energipriserne kun bør bidrage marginalt positivt. Ser vi lidt fremad er der tegn på, at inflationsudviklingen vil kunne stige lidt i de efterfølgende måneder som følge af basiseffekten fra lavere energipriser, herunder især faldende benzinpriser for et år siden. På den anden side peger afdæmpet lønudvikling og en stærk EUR på, at kerneinflationen fortsat vil udvikle sig afdæmpet. I går overraskede den tyske foreløbige HICP-opgørelse imidlertid med et større fald end ventet, og på denne baggrund har vi ændret vores estimat for euroområdet til et fald til 0,8% y/y. Derudover vil der være en smule fokus på dagens SMP-likviditetsopsugningsoperation fra ECB, idet det ikke er lykkedes at sterilisere SMP-opkøbene de seneste tre uger, hvilket aldrig er sket før. Det skal ses i sammenhæng med det ekstraordinære pres der har været der har været på pengemarkederne frem mod årsafslutningen. Hvis det igen ikke lykkes, kan det betyde at ECB må skride til en eller anden form for handling inden længe, eventuelt i forbindelse med rentemødet torsdag. Derudover byder Tyskland ind med ledighedstal for december, hvor der ventes et nogenlunde uændret antal ledige, hvilket bør medføre en stabil arbejdsløshedsrate på 6,9% for fjerde måned i streg. Det ventes at være småt med vigtige nyheder fra USA, hvor underskuddet på handelsbalancen forventes rimeligt stabilt på omkring 40 mia. USD i november. Derudover skal Federal Reserves Rosengren og Williams (begge duer) tale om økonomien, hvor vi dog ikke venter afgørende nyt, idet Rosengren allerede i sidste uge var ude at redegøre for hvorfor han ikke stemte for QE-udfasningen på december-rentemødet. Williams er ikke medlem af rentekomitéen (FOMC). EUR lægger fortsat dæmper på euro-inflation Indeks (omvendt akse) % y/y Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Svage serviceindeks fra Kina og USA ansporer en let negativ stemning mandag. Det indebar at obligationsrenterne faldt og USD blev svækket. Asien-børser følger med ned til morgen, mens US-futures stiger lidt. USA: ISM-serviceindekset skuffede igen i december med et nyt fald mod en ventet stigning. Indekset faldt til det laveste niveau i et halvt år på 53,0. Det var især ordreindgangen (primært eksportordrerne) som skuffede ved at falde til under 50 (49,4) og dermed viste tilbagegang i aktiviteten for første gang siden juli Sammen med ISM-indekset for fremstillingsindustrien peger det således på, at BNP-væksten vil bremse op til lige under 2,5% i 4. kvartal (jf. figur). På den positive side steg beskæftigelsesindekset pænt, og reverserede dermed næsten faldet i november, og peger sammen med fremstillingsindekset på stabil beskæftigelse i december (se figur). Janet Yellen blev som ventet godkendt i Senatet til at blive nye centralbankchef med stemmerne 56 for og 26 imod. Hun modtog således 11 ja -stemmer fra republikanske senatorer, men der var tale om den mindste senatsopbakning til en ny Fed-chef nogensinde. Euroområdet: Det investorbaserede konjunkturbarometer fra Sentix overraskede en smule positivt, da det steg mere end ventet til 11,9 i januar, hvilket er det højeste niveau siden april Det var især vurderingen af den aktuelle situation som trak op, hvilket nok har fået medvind fra den seneste fremgang på aktiemarkederne. Det understøtter udsigten til en ny stigning i ESI-indekset senere på ugen. PMI-composite fastholdt efter revideringen værdien på 52,1 i december, og dermed den lille stigning fra november. Bag dette lå at tysk PMIservice blev revideret en tand ned til 53,5, mens den franske blev taget lidt op til 47,8. Derudover så skuffede Italiens Service-PMI ved kun at stige en smule til 47,9 mens spansk service-pmi viste en robust stigning til 54,2. Tyskland: Den foreløbige opgørelse af forbrugerpriserne i december viste den ventede stigning i forbrugerprisinflationen til 1,4% y/y fra forrige 1,3% y/y. Den EU-harmoniserede opgørelse viste imidlertid et lidt større fald end ventet til 1,2% y/y fra 1,6% y/y, hvilket nok til dels skyldes en teknisk metodeændring bag opgørelsen. På denne baggrund har vi trukket vores estimat for dagens euro flash CPI en tand ned for december. Storbritannien: Service PMI faldt uventet endnu en måned, da det sank til 58,8 i december fra 60 i november. Faldet spejlede udviklingen vi har set i PMIindeksene for fremstillingssektoren samt byggeriet i december, men indeksniveauerne er dog fortsat ganske høje, indikerende at BNP-væksten også vil slutte året på en ganske pæn vækstrate, der kan vise sig en anelse højere end de 0,8% k/k i 3. kvartal. Danmark: Bruttoledigheden steg i november med 300 personer, og der er således stadig tale om en ret så stabil udvikling. Ganske vist er ledigheden nu steget de sidste 3 måneder i træk, men ledighedsprocenten holder sig stadig uændret på 5,7%, hvilket i lyset af hvor svagt økonomien har udviklet sig må siges at være et ret så fornuftigt resultat. USA: ISM-indeks signalerer mindre vækstopbremsning i Q4 % k/k, annualiseret men fortsat pæn beskæftigelsesvækst Indeks 7,5 5,0 2,5 0,0-2,5-5,0-7,5-10, ,0 55,0 50,0 45,0 40,0 35,0 BNP Vægtet total ISM-indeks (industri og service) Source: Reuters EcoWin indeks Indeks For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 7. januar 2014 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+0,57% / indeks 699,28) endte i positivt territorium på ugens første handelsdag. Med til at give aktiemarkedet lidt medvind var offentliggørelsen af PMI tal fra Eurozonen for december måned som viste fremgang og dermed indikerede at væksten i Eurozonen er i fortsat bedring. I toppen af indekset endte blandt andet Vestas (+5,50% / kurs 186,10) efter selskabet opjusterede deres forventninger til frit cash flow til 1 mia. Euro fra tidligere mio. Euro. Dermed fortsatte Vestas-aktien den pæne kursudvikling i Aktien er indtil videre steget med omkring 15% alene i år, hvilket kommer i kølvandet på en kursstigning på omkring 400% i Pandora (+2,46% / kurs 316,20) fortsatte ligeledes den pæne kursfremgang som aktien har haft i år dog uden selskabsspecifikke nyheder. FLSmidth (+2,62% / kurs 309,90) havde ligeledes en god dag efter et nordisk finanshus hævede deres kursmål på aktien. I den anden ende af indekset endte Chr. Hansen (-1,34% / kurs 213,60) efter en norsk storbank sænkede deres anbefaling på aktien fra køb til hold. Uden for det ledende C20-indeks var Bavarian Nordic (+10,22% / kurs 102,00) i fokus efter aktien fik positiv omtale i et finansielt tidsskrift. Renter Stemningen på finansmarkederne var en smule nedtonet fra morgenstunden oven på morgenens bløde PMI-tal fra Kina. Det sendte tyske (og danske) obligationsrenterne nedad fra morgenstunden. Italienske og spanske renter steg i den sammenhæng, hvilket måske fik lidt ekstra fra et svagere italiensk PMIserviceindeks end ventet. Dog steg spansk PMI samtidigt markant. Senere på dagen blev rentefaldet desuden understøttet af et større fald i tysk HICP-inflation end ventet. Om eftermiddagen overgik dagens PMI-fokus så til USA, og ISM-serviceindekset skuffede her med et uventet fald, hvilket sendte obligationsrenterne lidt yderligere ned sidst på eftermiddagen. EUR blev mandag styrket en smule, hvilket i første omgang måske fik lidt støtte fra uændrede PMI-indeks efter revideringen for december samt da aktiemarkederne i Europa ikke overtog den negative stemning fra Asien efter morgenen svage PMI-tal fra Kina. Sene- blev der desuden tale om en re på dagen USD-svækkelse efter at ISM-serviceindekset skuffede med et uventet fald i december. Også Storbritannien kunne byde på et lidt skuffende fald i PMI-indekset for landets servicesektor, og det svækkede GBP. JPY svækkes en smule tirsdag morgen til trods for at de asiatiske aktiemarkeder har pilen nedad for fjerde handelsdag i streg. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier 10-årige renter Aktuelt %-Æ ndring Aktue lt Ændrin g Aktuelt Æ ndring OMXC20CAP 699,3 0,57 USD/JPY 104,5 0,130 USA 2,98-0,01 Stoxx ,0-0,20 EU R/USD 1,361 0,004 Euroområdet 1,91-0,03 FT SE 6730,7 0,00 USD/DKK 5,479-0,015 Danmark 1,97-0,04 S&P ,8-0,25 CHF/DKK 6,045-0,016 Nasdaq 4113,7-0,44 GBP/DKK 8,980-0,011 Hang Seng 22718,3 0,15 SEK/DKK 0,840-0,002 Nikkei 15814,4-0,59 NOK/DKK 0,887-0,004 Alle tal er opgjort kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag kl. 7:30 Råvarer Aktuelt Ændring CRB 277,1 1,64 Brent oil (1M fut) 107,2 0,11 Gold (spot) 1244,2 0,16 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA 0,125 0,125 0,125 0,5 00 2,98 2,80 3,00 3,30 EUR/USD 1,,362 1,36 1,25 1,10 Euroland 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,,25 1,91 1,80 1,80 2,00 USD/J PY 104,5 102,5 103,0 105,0 UK 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,,50 2,99 2,70 2,80 3,00 USD/DKK 5,,479 5,49 5,96 6,77 Danmark 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,,20 1,97 1,90 1,95 2,15 EUR/DKK 7,,460 7,46 7,45 7,45 Sverige 0,75 0,75 0,75 1,,00 2,47 2,30 2,40 2,60 SEK/DKK 0,8401 0,848 0,887 0,898 Norge 1,50 1,50 1,25 1,,25 2,91 2,90 2,90 3,00 NOK/DKK 0,8871 0,899 0,920 0,920 2

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 7. januar 2014 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Ingen væsentlige Selskab Regnskab Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator /2014 Sverige Sveriges Riksbank Releases Minutes from Dec Meeting Kina Trade Balance D ec $32.80B Kina Im ports/exports (YoY) D ec 5.0%/5.5% :00 Danmark Current Account Balance N ov :00 Danmark Trade Balance ex Ships N ov :00 EMU Economic C onfiden nce D ec :00 Tyskland Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) N ov 1.5%/2.9% :00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate 09. jan 0.50% :00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target Jan 375B :30 USA Challenger Job Cuts YoY D ec :45 EMU ECB Announces Interest Rates 09. jan 0.250% :45 EMU ECB Deposit Facility Rate 09. jan 0.000% :30 EMU ECB'S Draghi Holds Press C onference :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 04. jan 320K :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 05. jan :00 USA House Monetary Policy Subcom mittee Hearing on Fed Bond Buying /12 Kina CPI YoY D ec 2.7% :45 Schweiz Unemployment Rate SA D ec 3.2% :30 Frankrig Bank of France Bus. Sentim ent D ec , :45 Frankrig Industrial Productio on (MoM/YoY) N ov 0.5%/1.4% %/0.0% :00 Schweiz CPI (MoM/YoY) D ec -0.1%/0.2% -0.1%/0.2% 0.0%/0.1% :00 Danmark Industrial Production MoM N ov % 1.5% :00 Danmark CPI (MoM/YoY) D ec %/0.8% -0.2%/0.5% :00 Danmark CPI EU H armonized (MoM/YoY) D ec %/0.5% 0.2%/0.3% :30 Sverige Industrial Productio on (MoM/YoY) N ov % %/-3.0% -1.7%/-5.0% :00 Norge CPI (MoM/YoY) D ec :00 Norge CPI U nderlying (MoM/YoY) D ec :30 UK Industrial Productio on (MoM/YoY) N ov 0.3%/3.0% :30 USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls D ec 193K :30 USA Unemployment Rate D ec 7.0% :00 USA Fed's Bullard Speaks on Economy Kina Aggregate Financing RMB D ec B Kina New Yuan Loans Periode Survey :45 Kina HSBC/Markit Services PMI D ec :00 Danmark Unemployment Rate SA N ov :00 Danmark Unemployment Rate Gross Rate N ov :00 EMU PMI Composite D ec F :00 EMU PMI Services D ec F :30 UK PMI Services D ec :30 EMU Sentix Investor Confidence J an :00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) D ec P 0.4%/1.4% :00 USA ISM Non-Manf. Composite D ec :00 USA Factory Orders (MoM) N ov 1.7% :45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence D ec :00 Schweiz Foreign Currency Reserves D ec 435.0B :55 Tyskland Unemployment Rate D ec 6.9% :00 EMU CPI Estim ate YoY D ec 0.9% :00 EMU CPI C ore YoY D ec A 0.9% :30 USA Fed's Rosengren, Williams Speaks on the Economy :30 USA Trade Balance N ov -$40.0B :00 Tyskland Exports SA MoM N ov 0.3% :00 Norge Industrial Productio on (MoM/YoY) N ov :00 EMU Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) N ov 0.1% :00 EMU Unemployment Rate N ov 12.1% :00 Tyskland Factory Orders (Mo om/yoy) N ov 1.1%/5.3% :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 03. jan :15 USA ADP Employment Change D ec 198K :00 USA Fed Releases Minutes from Dec FOMC Meeting D ec 590.0B SHB Forrige Faktisk % 4.4% 4.4% 5.6% 5.7% 5.7% %/1.3% 0.4%/1.4% % 1.8% B % 0.8% (r) 0.9% 0.8% (r) 0.9% -- -$40.6B % %/-7.5% %/-0.1% 12.1% 12.1% %/1.9% % K -- $33.80B %/12.7% 16.0B 18.4B 8.0B 9.0B %/1.0% 0.50% 0.50% 375B 375B % 0.250% 0.250% 0.000% 0.000% K % % %/2.5% %/2.0% %/3.2% 200K 203K 7.0% 7.0% B B Analytikere: Jes Asmussen, , jeas01@handelsbanken.dk, Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, , ragu02@handelsbanken.dk Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbankenn materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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