Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 23. juni 2014 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Det er PMI-dag i dag. Kinas og Japans PMI-indikator for industrien steg markant her til morgen, mens euroområdets og USA's kommer senere i dag. Vi venter, at euroområdets PMI composite indeks vil falde i juni. Det er allerede blevet antydet af Sentix s investorbarometer, selv om denne undersøgelse nok ikke nåede at opfange en mulig positiv effekt fra den seneste række lempelsestiltag fra ECB. Endvidere faldt det tyske forventningsbarometer fra ZEW uventet i juni, hvor der altså ikke var den stor positive ECB-effekt at spore. Vi forventer, at nedgangen er omtrent ligeligt fordelt mellem fremstillingsindustri og servicesektoren. Tre forskellige ECB-folk, men ikke chefen selv, går på talerstolen i dag. Markits foreløbige opgørelse af PMI-indekset for fremstillingsindustrien i USA ventes at falde lidt selvom de regionale industribarometre (ind til videre) overraskende er steget i juni. PMI-indekset befinder sig således på et noget højere niveau end det tilsvarende ISM-indeks. PMI-faldet baseres desuden på, at den seneste stigning nok har afspejlet en pæn genrejsning oven på den svage begyndelse på året og derfor kan falde lidt tilbage i takt med at indhentningseffekten lægger sig. Derudover kan de fortsat svage tendenser på boligmarkedet kombineret med højere benzinpriser medvirke til at have dæmpet tillidsindeksene. Selvom man nok fortsat fæster større betydning til ISM-indeksene, kan PMI-indeksene modtage opmærksomhed, da de kan give et hint om udviklingen i ISM. Begge indeks peger fortsat på en betydelig vækstbedring i 2. kvartal. Fra USA kommer der også tal for det eksisterende boligsalg, hvor der ventes en ny lille stigning, efter at vedvarende svagheder - toppet op af koldt vejr - betød at aktiviteten i marts næsten var sendt to år tilbage. Flere indikatorer har peget på bedring i maj, heriblandt allerede kendte tal for verserende bolighandler samt ikke mindst realkreditansøgningerne i forbindelse med huskøb, som dog har peget på, at salget vil stabilisere sig efterfølgende (se figur). Tirsdagens højdepunkt bliver nok Ifo-industritilliden fra Tyskland og Conference Board forbrugertilliden fra USA. Onsdag byder på sidste revidering og dermed det endelige nationalregnskab for 1. kvartal samt ordreindgangen på varige goder, ligeledes fra USA. Fredag kommer det økonomiske tillidsindeks, ESI fra EU-Kommissionen, tyske forbrugerpriser og University of Michigan forbrugertilliden fra USA. USA: Boligomsætning stabiliseret Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Fredag bød på aktiekursfald i Europa men små stigninger i USA. Her til morgen er de fleste asiatiske aktiemarkeder oppe på baggrund af stigningen i Kinas PMI. Marginal rentestigning og valuta stort set uændret fredag. Kina: PMI-aktivitetsindikatoren for industrien fra Markit/HSBC steg mere end ventet i juni til 50,8 fra 49,4 i maj, og det ser nu ud til, at det officielle mål for BNP-væksten på 7,5% for i år alligevel er inden for rækkevidde. Fremgangen er primært drevet af fremgang i den indenlandske efterspørgsel med stigninger i underindeksene for output og nye ordrer. Derimod faldt underindekset for nye eksportordrer markant til 50,6 fra 53,6. Underindekset for beskæftigelsen steg lidt, men ligger stadig på et svagt niveau (48,7). Andre arbejdsmarkedsindikatorer peger dog på et fortsat stramt arbejdsmarked. Det er især myndighedernes tiltag for at sætte gang i økonomien igen, som har forbedret vækstudsigterne og understøtter PMI. Den markante opbremsning, som er i gang på boligmarkedet, slår derimod ikke så kraftigt igennem på industrivirksomhedernes PMI. Japan: Markit offentliggør nu også en foreløbig opgørelse af PMI for Japan, og den viste en stigning i juni. Det indikerer, at nedgangen tidligere i år var midlertidig og alene skyldtes momsforhøjelsen. Euroområdet: Den foreløbige opgørelse af forbrugertilliden i euroområdet faldt overraskende til -7,4 fra -7,1 i maj. Der var ventet en ny lille stigning. Danmark: Forbrugertilliden tog mod forventningen et nyt spring mod højderne fra før den store krise i 2008 og Således steg forbrugertilliden fra 7,8 til 9,3 i juni. Renset for sæson var der også en pæn fremgang fra 6,9 til 8,7, og dermed har forbrugerne nu ikke set lysere på den økonomiske situation siden juni i Det er fortsat især større optimisme med hensyn til den overordnede økonomiske situation i Danmark der trækker forbrugertilliden i vejret, mens opfattelsen af husholdningernes egen økonomi har lidt sværere ved for alvor at få luft under vingerne. Med til at løfte stemningen er formentlig, at arbejdsmarkedet viser stabiliseringstegn, at aktiemarkederne har udviklet sig fornuftigt samt at boligmarkedet har lagt den værste nedtur bag sig. Kina: PMI tilbage over 50 For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 23. juni 2014 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-0,35% / indeks 811,43) endte i negativt territorium på ugens sidste handelsdag og tog dermed en puster fra de seneste pæne stigninger. I bunden af indekset endte A.P. Møller- Mærsk (-1,84% / kurs ,00) efter fragtraterne på den vigtige Asien/Europa rute, hvor APM henter 20% af deres volumener, faldt markant i den seneste uge. Carlsberg (- 1,79% / kurs 575,00) endte også lavere på trods af at et internationalt finanshus var ude og hæve kursmålet på aktien. Topdanmark (0,00% / kurs 163,20) endte uændret den sidste dag i eliteindekset før denne skifter plads med ISS på mandag. I den anden ende af indekset endte blandt andet Novo Nordisk (+0,16% / kurs 253,40) efter positive udmeldinger fra den årlige konkurrence i den amerikanske diabetesforretning (ADA), hvilket har fået et nordisk finanshus til at hæve kursmålet på aktien. Dagens kursmæssige vinder blev Genmab (+2,33% / kurs 232,40) dog uden selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Renter Både de amerikanske og de tyske og danske stastsrenter steg marginalt i fredags på en nøgletalsfattig dag. Dog faldt den foreløbige opgørelse af forbrugertilliden i euroområdet overraskende til -7,4 fra -7,1 i maj. Der var ventet en ny lille stigning. ECB s Draghi gav i weekenden interview til en hollandsk avis. Adspurgt om, hvor længe renterne vil være lave svarede han: Vi har forlænget perioden, hvor bankerne har adgang til ubegrænset likviditet, til udgangen af Det er et signal. Hans udtalelser kan muligvis lægge lidt pres nedad på renterne fra morgenstunden i dag. I denne uge er der i modsætning til i fredags flere makroøkonomiske nøgletal på programmet, som kan tænkes at føre til bevægelser på de finansielle markeder. Det gælder både dagens PMI for euroområdet og morgendagens Ifo fra Tyskland samt forbrugertillid og reviderede BNP-tal for 1. kvartal fra USA. Valuta EUR/USD bevægede sig fredag lidt op og lidt ned men ligger mandag morgen på præcist samme niveau som fredag morgen. Det gælder også en række andre valutakryds. Dog var der forskydning i EUR/SEK i fredags, hvor SEK svækkedes. CAD styrkedes fredag på bedre end ventede canadiske nøgletal. AUD og NZD er styrket markant her til morgen i kølvandet på at Kinas PMI for anden måned i træk steg kraftigt. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP 811,4-0,35 USD/JPY 102,0 0,100 USA 2,62 0,01 CRB 312,9 1,64 Stoxx ,1-0,02 EUR/USD 1,361-0,002 Euroområdet 1,34 0,02 Brent oil (1M fut) 115,2 0,12 FTSE 6825,2 0,25 USD/DKK 5,479 0,006 Danmark 1,37 0,02 Gold (spot) 1313,7-0,09 S&P ,9 0,17 CHF/DKK 6,123-0,006 Nasdaq 4368,0 0,20 GBP/DKK 9,338 0,007 Hang Seng 23262,4 0,29 SEK/DKK 0,816-0,002 Nikkei 15343,3-0,04 NOK/DKK 0,895 0,000 Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA 0,125 0,125 0,125 0,750 2,62 2,80 3,20 3,50 EUR/USD 1,361 1,38 1,25 1,10 Euroland 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15 1,34 1,65 1,90 2,00 USD/JPY 102,0 102,5 103,0 107,0 UK 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,75 2,76 2,85 3,00 3,25 USD/DKK 5,479 5,41 5,96 6,77 Danmark 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 1,71 1,75 1,95 2,10 EUR/DKK 7,456 7,46 7,45 7,45 Sverige 0,75 0,50 0,50 1,00 1,82 2,15 2,50 2,80 SEK/DKK 0,8154 0,834 0,847 0,887 Norge 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 2,57 2,90 2,90 3,00 NOK/DKK 0,8948 0,899 0,898 0,909 2

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 23. juni 2014 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Egetæpper Årsregnskab Flügger Årsregnskab Boconcept Årsregnskab Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :35 Japan Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI Jun P , :45 Kina HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Jun P 49,7 50,0 49, :00 EMU ECB's Constancio Speaks in Frankfurt :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jun P 52,0 51,7 52, :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Jun P 53,3 52,7 53, :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Jun P -- 52,8 53, :00 EMU ECB's Mersch Speaks in Sopot, Poland :30 USA Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index May , :45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Jun P 56,0 55,5 56, :00 USA Existing Home Sales May 4.73M 4,70M 4.65M :30 EMU ECB's Nowotny Speaks :00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Jun 110,2 110,0 110, :05 USA Fed's Plosser Speaks :00 USA FHFA House Price Index (MoM) Apr 0,6% -- 0,7% :00 USA S&P/CS 20 City (MoM) Apr 0.85%/11.73% %/12.37% :50 EMU ECB's Coeure Speaks in Frankfurt :00 USA Consumer Confidence Index Jun 83,5 82,5 83, :00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Jun , :00 USA New Home Sales May 440K 440K 433K :30 USA Fed's Williams Speaks :00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence Jul 8,6 -- 8, :45 Frankrig Manufacturing Confidence Jun :00 Italien Consumer Confidence Index Jun , :00 UK CBI Reported Sales Jun :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 20. jun ,2% :00 EMU ECB's Linde Speaks in Valencia :30 USA Durable Goods Orders (MoM) May -0,3% -0,2% 0,6% :30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (MoM) May 0,4% 0,5% -1,2% :30 USA GDP Annualized (QoQ) 1Q T -1,7% -1,7% -1,0% :45 USA Markit US Services PMI Jun P -- 57,0 58, :45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence Jun :00 Spanien House Mortgage Approvals (YoY) Apr ,0% :00 Norge Unemployment rate AKU Apr 3,4% -- 3,3% USA Fed's Lacker, Bullard Speaks :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 21. jun K :30 USA Personal Spending (MoM) May 0,4% -- -0,1% :30 USA PCE Core (MoM/YoY) May 0.2%/1.6% %/1.4% :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 22. jun , :00 USA Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Jun EMU EU Leaders hold summit in Brussels :01 UK Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM/YoY) Jun %/6.1% :05 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Jun 2,0 -- 0, :30 Japan Jobless Rate May 3,6% -- 3,6% :30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY May 3,4% -- 3,2% :50 Japan Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) May 2.8%/-1.9% %/-4.3% :45 Frankrig Consumer Spending (MoM/YoY) May 0.2%/-1.1% %/-0.5% :00 Spanien CPI EU Harmonised (YoY) Jun P ,2% :00 Italien Business Confidence Jun , :00 EMU Economic Confidence Jun 103,0 102,0 102, :00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Jun P 0.1%/0.9% 0.2%/1.0% -0.1%/0.9% :55 USA Univ. of Michigan Confidence Jun F 82, ,2 Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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