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1 25. oktober 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Fra USA modtager vi i dag forbrugertillid fra Conference Board for oktober. Her ventes et fald efter at tilliden i september uventet steg til det højeste niveau i ni år. Modsat er forbrugertilliden fra Bloomberg og University of Michigan faldet på det seneste, og sidstnævnte til det laveste niveau i et år. Vi venter at CB-tilliden retter ind efter denne mere negative udvikling i overensstemmelse med at benzinpriserne er steget lidt på det sidste, samtidigt med at aktiemarkederne er faldet lidt tilbage og beskæftigelsesfremgangen er bremset lidt op. Derudover er boligpriserne faldet lidt tilbage de seneste par måneder. I den sammenhæng får vi også boligprisstatistikker for august fra S&P/CaseShiller samt FHFA. Euroområdet byder ind med et par nationale erhvervstillidsindeks fra Tyskland (IFO) og Frankrig (INSEE). Begge disse indeks er steget pænt i september, og det interessante bliver om den seneste relativt stærkere tyske udvikling (jf. PMI neden for) vil blive spejlet i oktober-indeksene. Der ventes umiddelbart ikke de store ændringer i indeksværdierne i oktober, men vi ser en risiko for en relativt svagere fransk udvikling. I den sammenhæng får vi også opgørelsen af nye ledige i Frankrig i september, hvor der ventes et lille fald oven på den meget kraftige stigning i august. Derudover skal ECB-chef Draghi tale om blandt andet pengepolitik i det økonomiske institut DIW i Berlin. USA: CB-tillid bør rette ind (ned) efter Michigan Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Stabil udvikling på aktiemarkederne i Europa mens USA stiger. Renterne trækker i vejret og JPY svækkes mens EUR/USD udvikler sig fladt. Til morgen fortsætter den let positive børsstemning i Asien. USA: Vi havde en række Fed-taler, hvor Bulllard blandt andet udtalte at renterne vil holde sig lave i de næste to til tre år om end der er plads til én renteforhøjelse i forecasthorisonten. Bullard der normalt er kendt som en høg - understregede også, at dette syn på renten er mere nedtonet end hos resten af rentekomitéen (FOMC). Derudover så hans FOMC-kollega Evans (kendt som due og pt. ikke stemmeberettiget medlem af FOMC) mulighed for tre renteforhøjelser inden udgangen af 2017, og samtidigt mente han, at Fed bør være mere klar i kommunikationen om hvilke kriterier der skal lægges til grund for fremtidige opstramninger. Markits foreløbige fremstillings-pmi steg uventet i oktober til 53,2 fra 51,5 i september og dermed nåede indekset op i højeste niveau i et år. Det peger ligesom foreløbige regionale PMI-indeks på, at fremstillingssektoren ser lidt lysere på tingene forud for ISM-indekset for oktober, som vi får i næste uge. Euroområdet: Vi fik foreløbige PMI-indeks for euroområdet i oktober. Og det sammenfattende Composite PMI-indeks steg kraftigt i oktober til 53,7 fra 52,6 i september og nåede dermed uventet det højeste niveau i år. Det antyder, at væksten vil kom lidt op i gear i 4. kvartal. Når det så er sagt, er der tegn på, at en del af stigningen skyldes en korrektion efter et par træge sommermåneder især inden for fremstillingsindustrien. Som ventet var der den største stigning i service-pmi i oktober, men PMI-stigningen inden for fremstilling steg samtidigt til det højeste niveau i 30 måneder, hvilket var mest overraskende. En del af denne stigning bør dog tilskrives en midlertidig effekt af ferielukninger, især blandt bilfabrikkerne. Derfor forventer vi ikke at det bedrede momentum her vil vare ved, idet oliepriser og EUR bør give mindre støtte i de kommende måneder. Det var især det tyske PMIindeks der overraskede positivt mens det franske skuffede og tendens til vækstdivergens mellem de to lande blev således genetableret. PMIindekset for oktober støtter ECB i, at banken aktuelt ikke bør være specielt bekymret over vækstudsigterne. Dertil kommer, at prisindekset for Composite PMI steg til 50,5, og dermed viser stigende priser (med en indeksværdi over 50) for første gang siden UK: Opgørelsen af aktiviteten inden for nye fremstillingsordrer viste i henhold til CBI (Confederation of British Industries) et markant fald i oktober til det laveste niveau i otte måneder. Det kan meget vel skyldes en forsinket negativ reaktion på brexit. EUR-PMI med prisstigning første gang siden 2011 Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 25. oktober 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier Det ledende danske OMXC20 CAP (+0,04% / indeks 1.046,37) endte uændret på ugens første handelsdag. Dette til trods for, at de foreløbige PMI indeks for eurozonen overraskede positivt. I toppen af indekset endte FLSmidth (+2,91% / kurs 265,00) efter det svenske industriselskab Sandvik leverede et bedre end ventet regnskab i tredje kvartal. A.P. Møller-Mærsk (+1,07% / kurs ,00) fulgte godt med efter olieprisen har stabiliseret sig idet OPEC landene ser ud til at være blevet mere enige omkring produktionen af olie end de plejer at være. Foruden en stabilisering af olieprisen er dollaren styrket, hvilket har givet A.P. Møller-Mærsk-aktien medvind. I den anden ende af indekset endte de mere defensive aktier, hvilket har været en gennemgående trend på det seneste. Dagens kursmæssige taber blev Lundbeck (-1,42% / kurs 222,90). Pandora (-0,98% / kurs 909,00) endte også lavere, hvilket sandsynligvis skyldtes gevinsthjemtagning i kølvandet på den seneste tids stærke kursudvikling. Novo Nordisk (-0,53% / kurs 282,10) satte sig også en smule efter et internationalt finanshus sænkede kursmålet på aktien. Renter Obligationsmarkederne lagde mandag ud med lavere renteniveauer. Dog trak statsrenterne (herunder tyske og danske) opad i løbet af formiddagen i overensstemmelse med en positiv stemning på aktiemarkederne kombineret med en uventet stor stigning i euroområdets PMI-indeks i oktober, hvor Compositeindekset nåede det højeste niveau i år. Derudover faldt statsrenterne i EURperiferilandene, efter at Portugal fik lov til at beholde sin investement grade rating af kreditvurderingsbureauet DBRS samt efter at Spaniens Socialistparti indvilligede i, at den fungerende PM Rajoy kan få lov til at sidde endnu en periode og dermed løsne op for den langvarige politiske hårdknude. Tyske og danske renter endte med små stigninger. I USA blev stigningen i statsrenterne lidt tydeligere, efter at Markit s PMIfremstillingsindeks steg uventet meget samt efter en lidt mere positiv børsudvikling her. Derudover fik vi lidt blandede Fed-taler, som ikke ændrede stort på dagens rentestigning. Valuta EUR blev styrket i løbet af formiddagen efter at PMI-indekset steg uventet kraftigt i oktober til det højeste niveau i år. Derudover beholdt Portugal sin Investment Grade -rating hos DBRS og i Spanien så den politiske hårdknude ud til at løsne lidt op med tegn på at PM Rajoy får endnu en regeringsperiode. USD blev for del først svækket en smule mod EUR, da vi på den ene side fik vi dueagtig udtalelse fra Fed s Bullard, mens vi på den anden side fik en uventet stigning i Markits fremstillingsindeks og en mere høgeagtig udtalelse fra Fed s Evans. Det betød at EUR/USD endte dagen stort set uændret. JPY blev generelt svækket på en generelt positiv stemning på børserne oven på dagens positive overraskelse i PMIfremstillingsindeksene i USA og euroområdet. GBP blev blot midlertidigt svækket da vi modtog markant svagere ordreindeks fra CBI end ventet i oktober. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA USD/DKK Euroland EUR/DKK UK GBP/DKK Danmark CHF/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 25. oktober 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Parken Sport & Entertainmant A/S 3. kvartal Novozymes A/S 3. kvartal Chr. Hansen Holding A/S Helårsregnskab Ringkjøbing Landbobank A/S 3. kvartal Jyske Bank A/S 3. kvartal Tivoli A/S 3. kvartal Novo Nordisk A/S 3. kvartal Danske Bank A/S 3. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :50 Japan Trade Balance Adjusted Sep 211.0b b 349.0b :30 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Oct P :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct P :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Oct P :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Oct P :00 UK CBI Trends Total Orders Oct :30 USA Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Sep (r) :00 Kina Conference Board Leading Index :00 USA Fed's Dudley and Bullard Speaks :45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Oct P :30 USA Fed's Evans and Powell Speaks :45 Frankrig Business Confidence Oct :00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Oct :00 USA FHFA House Price Index (MoM) Aug 0.5% % :00 USA S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.10%/5.05% %/5.02% :00 USA Consumer Confidence Index Oct :00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Oct :30 EMU ECB President Draghi Speaks :00 Frankrig Jobseekers Net Change Sep :20 USA Fed's Lockhart Speaks :45 Kina Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment Oct :00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence Nov :45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence Oct :00 Italien Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.4%/0.5% %/-0.2% :30 UK BBA Loans for House Purchase Sep :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 21. okt % :30 USA Advance Goods Trade Balance Sep -$60.8b -- -$59.2b :30 USA Wholesale Inventories (MoM) Sep P 0.1% % :45 USA Markit US Services PMI Oct P :00 USA New Home Sales Sep 600k k :30 Kina Industrial Profits (YoY) Sep % :00 Norge Unemployment Rate AKU Aug 4.9% 4.9% 5.0% :00 Sverige Economic Tendency Survey Oct :30 Sverige Riksbank Interest Rate 27. okt -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% :00 Norge Deposit Rates 27. okt 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% :00 EMU M3 Money Supply (YoY) Sep 5.1% % :00 Italien Manufacturing Confidence Oct :30 UK GDP (QoQ/YoY) 3Q A 0.3%/2.1% %/2.1% :30 USA Durable Goods Orders Sep P 0.1% % :30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Sep P -0.1% % :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 22. okt 255k k :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 23. okt :00 USA Pending Home Sales (MoM/YoY) Sep 1.1%/ %/4.0% :00 USA Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Oct :00 EMU ECB's Mersch Speaks :30 Japan Jobless Rate Sep 3.1% % :30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Sep -0.5% % :30 Frankrig GDP (QoQ/YoY) 3Q A 0.3%/1.2% %/1.3% :00 Norge Retail Sales W/Auto Fuel (MoM) Sep 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% :45 Frankrig CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) Oct P 0.2%/0.6% %/0.5% :00 Spanien CPI (MoM/YoY) Oct P --/0.3% %/0.2% :00 Spanien GDP (QoQ/YoY) Q3 P 0.7%/3.1% %/3.2% :00 Schweiz KOF Leading Indicator Oct :30 EMU ECB's Coeure Speaks :30 Sverige Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Sep 0.3%/2.7% 0.7%/3.0% 0.6%/2.8% :00 Norge Unemployment Rate Oct 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% :00 EMU Economic Confidence Oct :00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Oct P 0.1%/0.7% %/0.7% :30 USA Employment Cost Index 3Q 0.6% % :30 USA GDP Annualized (QoQ) 3Q A 2.5% % :00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Oct F Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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6 Contact information Capital Markets Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Per Eldestrand Head of Debt Capital Markets Sweden Måns Niklasson Head of Corporate Loans and Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head, Chief Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Andreas Skogelid Senior Strategist FI Pierre Carlsson Strategist FX Lars Henriksson Foreign Exchange Strategist Macro Research Ann Öberg Chief Economist Jimmy Boumediene Head of Forecasting Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman E. Europe, Emerging Markets, Japan Anders Brunstedt Sweden Eva Dorenius Web Editor Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Macro Research Janne Ronkanen Senior Analyst Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Macro Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Denmark Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen China and Latin America Norway Kari Due-Andresen Head, Macro Research, Norway; UK Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Marius Gonsholt Hov Senior Economist, Norway Halfdan Grangård Senior Economist, Norway Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Jaan Kivilo Gävle Petter Holm Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Ray Spiers Luleå/Umeå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Snorre Tysland Malmö Fredrik Lundgren Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen allé 11 Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC